Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[GOVA]

Tobias Lindh just reported :

After the vote of the citizens of #Grünheide against clearing another 100 ha at #GigaBerlin, a new sketch for an adjusted development plan has been published.This would make all planned infrastructure projects possible, while saving 70 ha of forest.

 

[Singuy]

More accurately,

The stock price lost 60% of its value in 2 months AS he was dumping shares.

Unless suddenly correlation has been shown to equal causation.

He was dumping meta shares at the same time as that too lost 60% of its value during the same time period.

 

[2daMoon]

He was dumping meta shares at the same time as that too lost 60% of its value during the same time period.

Meta? Facebook?

Elon held shares in Facebook? That seems so wrong on so many levels.

I must be misunderstanding something here.

Edit: Sorry, my irony/sarcasm filter was disengaged. I get what you are saying and I approve this message.

 

[alexxs88]

5. Now it's the shareholders fault for not granting him 25%, so he moves AI away from Tesla.

What does moving AI away from Tesla actually mean? For better or worse, FSD is the best AI play that Elon has and that's tied to Tesla in every other way. Optimus is early in development, but everyone is demo-ing the same things there, safe to assume there's no moat to be had.

 

[EQC_]

If Tesla can get the CT to 40k, they will fly off the lot. At 100k, sales will only go so far.

I agree that $100K is too high for big sales numbers (at least with the state of things currently in the US...nobody knows what economic boom times or huge inflation may be around the corner ).

Tied to that $40K number, I'll just add that the crushing reality of inflation has hit me recently with regard to car prices...and I'm realizing $40K is probably pretty unrealistic for an electric truck with reasonable range.

Spoiler: Details on US car prices/bloat/inflation

My brain jumps to the Honda Civic and Toyota Corolla as sortof "benchmark" vehicles -- smaller/less expensive cars from trusted brands. I remember when it was easy to talk off the lot with one of those for around $15K. If you worked really hard, you could probably find a super base model for $12K, and $20K required a whole lot of options. As the Civic and Corolla got a bit larger and more costly, the Honda Fit and Toyota Yaris came along to fill that price gap, while the Civic and Corolla moved upmarket a bit.

Now, at least in the USA, the Yaris and Fit aren't available anymore...so the Civic and Corolla are the lowest end from those two manufacturers. Toyota and Honda just don't bother slotting in anything smaller or less expensive. And, the model bloat combined with inflation means that the base model MSRP for both of those is now about $24K....and that's before tacking on an additional $1200 or whatever for the destination charge.

So, in a world USA where ~$25K is the base model price for a Civic or Corolla (double what I can remember being achievable not THAT long ago), and neither brand offers (in the US) anything really less expensive, $40K is probably unreasonably low for a good EV truck.

 

[GOVA]

If Tesla can get the CT to 40k, they will fly off the lot. At 100k, sales will only go so far.

This applies to EVERY product ever sold. This seems like a targeted fallacy from you. Nobody is forcing anybody to buy the CT.

Tesla knows how to do the price adjustments when needed.

 

[SO16]

I agree that $100K is too high for big sales numbers (at least with the state of things currently in the US).

Tied to that $40K number, I'll just add that the crushing reality of inflation has hit me recently with regard to car prices...and I'm realizing $40K is probably pretty unrealistic for an electric truck with reasonable range.

Spoiler: Details on US car prices/bloat/inflation

My brain jumps to the Honda Civic and Toyota Corolla as sortof "benchmark" vehicles -- smaller/less expensive cars from trusted brands. I remember when it was easy to talk off the lot with one of those for around $15K. If you worked really hard, you could probably find a super base model for $12K, and $20K required a whole lot of options. As the Civic and Corolla got a bit larger and more costly, the Honda Fit and Toyota Yaris came along to fill that price gap, while the Civic and Corolla moved upmarket a bit.

Now, at least in the USA, the Yaris and Fit aren't available anymore...so the Civic and Corolla are the lowest end from those two manufacturers. Toyota and Honda just don't bother slotting in anything smaller or less expensive. And, the model bloat combined with inflation means that the base model MSRP for both of those is now about $24K....and that's before tacking on an additional $1200 or whatever for the destination charge.

So, in a world USA where ~$25K is the base model price for a Civic or Corolla (double what I can remember being achievable not THAT long ago), and neither brand offers (in the US) anything really less expensive, $40K is probably unreasonably low for a good EV truck.

Yeah I know. But man, would be great though.

 

[EQC_]

Tobias Lindh just reported :

After the vote of the citizens of #Grünheide against clearing another 100 ha at #GigaBerlin, a new sketch for an adjusted development plan has been published.This would make all planned infrastructure projects possible, while saving 70 ha of forest.

By "forest," are we still talking about a monocrop of trees that were planted/farmed with the intent of cutting down to make cardboard?

I do not mean this as any slight against you...but I remember all the articles decrying Tesla's original Berlin Gigafactory being built in a "forest"...and so many articles either neglected to mention or didn't bother to learn that those trees were all destined to be cut down to make cardboard. Cardboard! Downright infuriating and insulting reporting.

In some alternate universe, Tesla will build its factory on the reduced land size, "saving" 70 hectares of trees...and then two months later the cardboard farmers will come and cut them down anyway, leaving a horrific dust bowl. Who will the protesters complain to then?

 

[SO16]

This applies to EVERY product ever sold. This seems like a targeted fallacy from you. Nobody is forcing anybody to buy the CT.

Tesla knows how to do the price adjustments when needed.

I didn’t pick the 40k out of the blue. That’s what Tesla advertised. Yes, I know inflation, etc and I don’t plan on seeing this number. However, with a tax credit, it might be achievable. The model 3 has certainly been a good price near the original advertised of 35k even with inflation.

I remember watching several CT YT videos at the initial announcement and some petrol heads were “ho hum” until they saw the 39,900 price. That perked their ears.

 

[dl003]

He was dumping meta shares at the same time as that too lost 60% of its value during the same time period.

This is TSLA's net income for 2021 and 2022

This is META

This is NVDA

Almost as if, for everyone except TSLA, stock price has a direct correlation with EPS, right?

 

[EQC_]

I didn’t pick the 40k out of the blue. That’s what Tesla advertised. Yes, I know inflation, etc and I don’t plan on seeing this number. However, with a tax credit, it might be achievable. The model 3 has certainly been a good price near the original advertised of 35k even with inflation.

I remember watching several CT YT videos at the initial announcement and some petrol heads were “ho hum” until they saw the 39,900 price. That perked their ears.

Interestingly, the announced/revealed price for a given range at the time the Cybertruck was announced was actually VERY close to the Model Y prices for similar range at the same time.

At least at that point, somebody at Tesla thought it was a reasonable enough possibility that Tesla could make and sell a dual-motor, ~300+ mile Cybertruck for the same price as a dual-motor, ~300+ mile Model Y.

Inflation should affect both similarly...I'm still crossing my fingers for the prices to eventually come in line. I know some features of the Cybertruck have improved since the announce, so I'm even willing to give the Cybertruck a few extra $K of credit to account for the rear-wheel steering, 48V system, etc. Imagine if a dual-motor 300+ mile Cybertruck could be had for ~$55-$60K....

 

[Singuy]

This is TSLA's net income for 2021 and 2022
View attachment 1047833

This is META
View attachment 1047830

This is NVDA
View attachment 1047831
Almost as if, for everyone except TSLA, stock price has a direct correlation with EPS, right?

It does, in the long term, hence we are stuck in the mud today. If Tesla was reporting record EPS today, no would even care about this share dump from over a year ago.

Also food for thought, if you don't want to see anymore massive share dumps ever again, vote no for this compensation package so he doesn't have to pay 20B+ in taxes in the coming future.

So many incentives to say no, only morality stands in the way between no and yes (and Elon is not holding his breath).

 

[Doggydogworld]

Interestingly, the announced/revealed price for a given range at the time the Cybertruck was announced was actually VERY close to the Model Y prices for similar range at the same time.

At least at that point, somebody at Tesla thought it was a reasonable enough possibility that Tesla could make and sell a dual-motor, ~300+ mile Cybertruck for the same price as a dual-motor, ~300+ mile Model Y.

Or they just made up a number to excite the crowd based on a bunch of fantastical assumptions.

 

[Xd85]

It does, in the long term, hence we are stuck in the mud today. If Tesla was reporting record EPS today, no would even care about this share dump from over a year ago.

Also food for thought, if you don't want to see anymore massive share dumps ever again, vote no for this compensation package so he doesn't have to pay 20B+ in taxes in the coming future.

So many incentives to say no, only morality stands in the way between no and yes (and Elon is not holding his breath).

At the risk of oversimplifying things:

Vote No: no issuance of options no exercise of options no share dumps (additional share dumps). Risk of Elon leaving and fundamentally stunting Tesla and TSLA potential

Vote yes: reduced risk of Elon leaving, possible temporary future share dump and SP drop, more probable Tesla potential (likely translating to TSLA potential)

I guess that does really depend on human logic and decency. Not a 100% these days as others pointed out.

 

[Singuy]

At the risk of oversimplifying things:

Vote No: no issuance of options no exercise of options no share dumps (additional share dumps). Risk of Elon leaving and fundamentally stunting Tesla and TSLA potential

Vote yes: reduced risk of Elon leaving, possible temporary future share dump and SP drop, more probable Tesla potential (likely translating to TSLA potential)

I guess that does really depend on human logic and decency. Not a 100% these days as others pointed out.

People who are voting no WANTS Elon to step down as CEO. They feel like he has lost it and is driving the company to the ground. So it's not a risk to them, it's collateral damage they are looking forward to.

 

[hobbes]

The Grünheide city council has voted for the expansion of Giga Berlin (freight train station and logistics area):

Tesla darf Werk in Grünheide erweitern

Die Gemeinde Grünheide stimmte trotz Protesten dafür. Der US-Autohersteller muss aber Bedingungen erfüllen.

www-sueddeutsche-de.translate.goog

Tesla wins approval for Gigafactory Berlin expansion in Germany

Tesla has won approval for its expansion of Gigafactory Berlin, its production facility in Germany, after a meeting between community members and local officials was held on Thursday.

www.teslarati.com

 

[thx1139]

Because if they produce the 3 and Y at the maximum production capacity, they will not be able to sell all the vehicles and it will be obvious as the inventory will increase.
Until demand increases Berlin and Texas will not be producing at the maximum capacity.

Wouldnt shifting more Model Y production free up more resources to Model 3 Highland Production at Fremont? Also isnt GigaTexas supposed to be more efficient modern facility?

 

[hobbes]

He recently confirmed he sees the Elon comp package as likely passing. (EDIT: deleted fake Elon post. My bad I didn't check the handle. Thanks @Singuy )

...

- the fact that Elon asks why Gary is confident, makes me not confident since it seems Elon is not confident.

Are the two items I put in bold related? If so, the latter might be moot..

 

[jeewee3000]

Are the two items I put in bold related? If so, the latter might be moot..

Yeah, apologies. Cant edit anymore.

Will pay more attention in the future before posting.

 

[jabloomf1230]

I'm just guessing, but Elon is definitely not rich enough to just leave Tesla be. His big dream is Mars, and for that he'll need billions and billions, and probably Optimus.
Would you just step out butthurt or fight with an appeal the first decision and meanwhile make your millions shares accrue value deploying FSD and making the economy environmentally sustainable?
If he is who I think he is the mission is not accomplished. And Mars is not accomplished.
...

I want to preface my remarks that for what it's worth, I voted yes. But if the nos have it and Elon leaves, I won't cry. It was one thing when he was advocating for electric vehicles and Mars, but after COVID hit, his true libertarian side began to show. I don't blame him for being anti-government. Most corporate leaders are also. But his use of X as a personal hype machine overemphasizes his views on a multitude of hot button topics. My guess is that the next Tesla CEO will be more like other CEOs. The most visible of the lot are people like Buffett and Dimon and they rarely pontificate at the levels that Elon Musk does. What Tesla needs is a quiet, sensible leader, not a loose cannon.