I've been thinking about this shift of emphasis.
Part of it is general cost cutting and reprioritizing, part of it is expecting fewer EVs to be sold in some regions than earier projections.
But I think part may also be the Biden Admin's rejecting of funding for a Megacharger highway.
Tesla may have realised that they need to fund Megacharger sites themselves, sites have to be very carefully selected and the Megacharger build out will be expensive.
I expect many Megacharger sites might have a co-located Supercharger site with a lot of stalls, there is not much point in building a new Supercharger site now 50 miles from a future Megacharger site.
So I think they need to work out where the Megachargers are going, finalise the costs and the budget and give them clear priority over regular Supercharger expansion.
IMO they should be in locations close to highways but well away from city centres. in cities I think Semis will recharge at warehouses. Tesla may be better off buying the land.
Getting it right and getting the right site design is a challenge, especially for that first few sites, and the trucking industry needs to be consulted on site selection.
The ramp of the Semi will need Megacharging and I think Supercharging at the same site can help pay for what may initially be lower Megacharger utilisation.
I think Tesla is juggling some potentially big chunks of capex expenditure:-
- AI compute
- Megacharging
- Gen3 Factories
Megacharging may even delay Gen3 factories a bit longer. IMO AI compute is mostly a "one time" spend and after the first 10 Megachargers are built Megachaging can help fund Megacharging expansion.