Search results

Hi, EVNow -- > how much can RT make when competing with human drivers ? Tough to say. It turns out that most drivers do a lot more than just drive -- cleaning, fueling, some limited roadside tech (e.g. flat tire), entrance/exit assistance, security guard, etc. I think it a mistake to just zero...

Hi, all -- From the previously referenced autoura site, Baidu/Apollo is running in a bunch of cities: https://rollout.autoura.com/platforms/apollo , with 840k rides in Q4 2023. Back of the envelope: 840k / 90 days / 10 trips per day = ~1000 taxis fleetwide. Yours, RP

Hi, Ben -- I agree that the resulting code would be no more intelligible than a neural network. We've wandered way off topic, and someone's (yours?) remark that, "These are all Von Neumann machines" more or less sums up what I was getting at. Yours, RP

Hi, Enemji -- Not a hill I'm willing to die on, because I honestly don't know what I'm talking about, but I believe it should be possible to "decompile" a neural net into, say, C code, thereby showing that they're functionally equivalent. Yours, Bowd

Hi, all -- I see others have experience in the field, I wasn't trying to pull rank by mentioning mine. Yours, RP

Hi, Enemji -- > that is no better or even is just a HUGE IF ELSEIF WHEN DO LOOP module, Again, I have a background in CS but only a layman's knowledge of AI. One of the main, I don't know, insights isn't the right word, I doubt I'll be able to explain this, of CS is that if you can turn one...

Hi, Ben -- > AGI will require a neural net that can take its own output into account. A lot of people think that recursion is the secret of consciousness. I'm not sure a neural net that can take its own input into account really counts as neural net anymore. I've programmed computers but claim...

Hi, Ben -- > it assumes that the FSD network can't be good enough to extrapolate solutions to not-yet-seen edge cases from knowledge of other edge cases. [,,,,]situations that they haven't yet seen or been trained for directly, but could still solve on the fly via "reasoning" from the rest of...

Hi, 2daMoon -- My question was, " Could you provide a few examples of things they've been wrong about?" because I thought you might have some hanging around. It's OK if you'd rather I do my own research, but my interest in the issue is too low for that to happen. As the mods have noted, this...

Hi, 2daMoon -- That sounds like a lot of work, which I'm trying to avoid here. Yours, RP

Hi, 2daMoon -- > Here's a broader set of responses to a "Reuters' hit pieces on Tesla" search I imagine that search would be just as useful as searching for "Musk lies again", you're just going to turn up a bunch of things that agree with the search query. I don't feel like spending a lot...

Hi, Usain -- Agreed that it's the rate not the starting point that's important now. Note, though, that Musk could be wrong about the rate of 12.4 without lying, in the same way he's been wrong about other things without lying. Yours, RP

Hi, 2daMoon -- > a reputation for being more consistently wrong in its reporting on Tesla, historically. I asssume we're discussing Reuters. Could you provide a few examples of things they've been wrong about? Yours, RP Moderator: Actually, No. We are NOT discussing Reuters. That series of...

Hi, TheKiwi -- Spending money on a proxy contest is completely standard, but this is not a proxy contest, so I'm also scratching my head to find a direct precedent. Yours, RP

Hi, Unk -- I found that pretty dense and in some places hard to follow -- not a criticism of you, of course! The fault is no doubt mine. I'm going to try to an, "In my own words" thing to see if I'm getting the gist. > That shift is the one that affected Tesla more than any other, primarily...

Hi, Mengy -- > and then 3-4 million RT's per year Right, so you're also at 4-5MM ex-Robotaxi. This may be hair-splitting, but I'd attribute any RT sales to software/FSD rather than auto. Yours, RP

Hi, Unk -- Interesting, but I'm not sure on the read-through to Tesla. YTD, global auto sales are up; EV sales are up, with PHEV outperforming BEV, but BEV is still up; but Tesla is down. So, to me it's share loss that requires explanation. I guess you could argue that, because Tesla...

Hi, Blue Horshoe -- 90 Hi, Unk45 -- I was being polite. Yours, RP

Hi, MP3Mike -- I'm unclear as to why a finance company would be willing to do this. Yours, RP

Hi, all -- I'm too lazy to go back and find the discussion about FSD fatalities to respond to, but: https://static.nhtsa.gov/odi/inv/2022/INCR-EA22002-14496.pdf Search for FSD. Could someone try to calculate FSD miles for the period in question? I'm not sure that the data this is based on is...

Hi, Drtimhill -- > You are training ONE network to respond correctly to numerous inputs, the "mode" being just one of very many more.. I don't understand how this would work in an any sort of "pure" ML context. It seems to me if you want "Chill", you'd have to identify a bunch of "chill"...

Hi, DrChaos -- > They can show off a small car prototype with robotaxi-compatible features. Canoo was there 5 years ago. Thats not the difficult or interesting part. I don't think the latter part would be considered an obstacle for 8/8. One big advantage of revealing some sort of dedicated...

Hi, Unk45 -- We're in general agreement. Circling back to where I *think* all this started: 1: I believe that Tesla's DTC model is a competitive advantage, but not a huge one. Some people think it decisive -- "How can legacy compete!?" -- but I wouldn't go that far. The dealers are out there...

Hi, Willow_Hiller -- > V12 was trained primarily on employee-collected data, Got a source for that? If true, it really undercuts the "only Tesla has the data" story. Or maybe the idea is that getting to 12.x is easy, but you need the mountains of data for nine-marching? But if that's true, why...

Hi, all -- But back to the topic at hand. What could this plausibly be? Any radically different hardware poses a challenge to the "only Tesla has the data" story as well as the "every Tesla has robotaxi capabilities" story. A business model presentation seems like it would only give rise to...

Hi, MP3Mike -- Thanks, on review I see that I said, "Some auto companies have a separate line item for R&D; some, including Tesla, do not." , when I intended to say, "Some auto companies have a separate line item for R&D; some, including Toyota, do not." Yours, RP

Hi, Mongo -- Could you please be less rude? I welcome correction, but think you've adopted a hostile tone. What's the source for the above snippet? I'm looking at the "CONSOLIDATED STATEMENT OF INCOME" from Toyota's latest 20-F. Yours, RP

Hi, Bladerskb -- For extra fun, recent reporting on the Austin data center indicates that it is known internally as "Dojo". Maybe Teslarians refer to any in-house FSD related compute as Dojo. Yours, RP

Hi, Knightshade -- Note that I am not accusing Tesla of accounting fraud or any wrongdoing at all and resent the implication that I am. I'm surprised to hear this from you, because I think you have high standards for accuracy. I may have unintentionally accused Tesla of fraud; if so, could you...

Hi, Unk45 -- > You post n a subject about which you obviously know nothing, Accounting. Thanks for setting me straight! I'm certainly not an accountant. What I'm hearing is that when trying to understand dealership finances, I shouldn't look at the "Cost of Goods" line? Is this revealed...

Hi, Mongo -- There may be a longer conversation about this, to me, really unimportant point. I don't know if I'll engage it in due to software limitations, e.g., lack of threading. What I mean by that is: I don't know how to track replies to a post. I'm responding to this at a particular point...

Hi, Alexss88 -- > A dealer gets 10-15% margin on the retail price, Too lazy to double-check, but I believe dealer *gross* margins on new vehicle sales are in the 5%-6% range. You need to go the filings or earnings reports to see this, data service financial summaries don't provide enough...

Hi, Singuy -- Kind of regretting getting involved here, but -- "a thread about any other tech stock people are bullish or bearish in." , does not sound to me much like a thread for, "Let's work together to figure out what the stock is worth and what the risks are?" I'm not picking on you...

Hi, Singuy -- > The number 1 question this forum answers is "why should you invest in Tesla and why you shouldn't invest in other similar companies." Should there be another forum for, "Let's work together to figure out what the stock is worth and what the risks are?" Because that seems worth...

Hi, Alexxs88 -- > Tesla's valuation has always been dependent on the capability to deliver autonomous driving with a relatively cheap sensor stack. There's no shortage of people who thought -- and still think -- that Tesla will sell 20MM cars in 2030. Yours, RP

Hi, Mardak -- Check out the very first post on this thread. Yours, RP

Hi, Scaesare -- Why not both? Yours, RP

Hi, Diplomat -- > ~10k miles per critical intervention is a minimum before starting driverless testing. We're in agreement, then. > Are we measuring all interventions I'm going off the tracker, because that's all we've got, and looking at their (somewhat subjective) City Miles To Critical...

Hi, Diplomat -- > Tesla needs to get to at least 10k miles per safety intervention to even start a geofenced robotaxi. I've been using 100k for robotaxi/10k to start getting serious about seeking regulatory approval. If accidents/critical disengagement are 1/10, 100k gets 1MM miles between...

Hi, all -- <snip a bunch of other participants> "Disengagments" aren't the relevant stat for robotaxi/personal chauffeur purposes, it's "critical disengagements". We're not talking about, "The car behind me honked, so I took over" here. Yours, RP

Hi, Cliff -- >I dont understand why there are concerns that there are insufficient batteries for a model 2? The world is currently awash in batteries; the concern is IRA eligible batteries. I don't follow this closely,, but Troy thinks that oncoming sources of supply are already spoken for...

Hi, Zaddy Daddy -- Interesting work! I recognize this is all very back of the envelope, but had a couple of quick questions: 1: Operating costs of $0.2 per mile. I assume "operating costs" doesn't include "capital costs"? If so, shouldn't that be at least $0.1/mile? ($50k car driven for 500k...

Hi, DDW -- > MHO Tesla will never do Robotaxis. Let me do some goal-post shifting. Really my 2 main concerns are: 1: Are the tracker's numbers any good? Let me make a couple of observations: A: At some level, the answer is "No". I've never done the stats work on this, but the enormous...

Hi,, Daniel, -- Thanks for moving the conversation to more neutral grounds. Honestly, bringing my position up is a huge distraction but something I felt necessary. Maybe I'll try reframing it. I'd love to talk to knowledgeable people about the ifs/whens of Tesla achieving full autonomy. I'm...

Hi, all -- SidetrackedSue, agreed that the robotaxi thread might be a better place. Do you have a link? I'm not seeing a currently active discussion, but honestly didn't look that hard; using the search w. "Titles only" shows a seemingly relevant poll thread, maybe that would be better? At...

Hi, Willow_Hiller -- > I don't think we can say which direction it would be biased in You'll get no argument from me, that was an IMHO thing. I'm trying to see if people think the #s are any good at all, in a 2x/10x context. > , I don't think the FSD tracker data can be directly compared to...

Hi, all -- PDupbs, thanks for sharing! SidetrackedSue, agreed that the robotaxi thread might be a better place. Do you have a link? I'm not seeing a currently active discussion, but honestly didn't look that hard; using the search w. "Titles only" shows a seemingly relevant poll thread, maybe...

Hi, all -- I'm going to be posting this on the 12.x thread as well. Mods, delete if thought appropriate; maybe there should be a separate "quantitative analysis of FSD" thread. As a reminder, I'm interested in FSD 12 because I'm short Tesla because I think the stock overvalued. I'm more than...

Hi, all -- I want to be clear that the above is not intended to convince anyone of anything, but rather an "Am I thinking about this wrong?" endeavor. Yours, RP

Hi, all -- I'm going to be posting this on the fsdtracker thread as well. As a reminder, I'm interested in FSD 12 because I'm short Tesla because I think the stock overvalued. I'm more than willing to discuss to my position, but it isn't relevant to this current conversation, I'm only bringing...