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  1. Todd Burch

    FSD v12.x (end to end AI)

    Sure. Looking forward to the reddit poster's video. I'm sure it will be posted.
  2. Todd Burch

    FSD v12.x (end to end AI)

    OK, now suppose you have 70% of your net worth in TSLA or whatever he claims. How does it benefit him to post the problems publicly? Is he trying to hurt his own stock value? If he truly is an internal beta tester, he'll have a direct line to the autopilot team and can tell them directly...
  3. Todd Burch

    FSD v12.x (end to end AI)

    Could be anything. Stock manipulation was just one example of why someone might post BS on social media. Not saying that explains the poster. May I refer you to the last 15 years of Tesla history, in which BS was spewed daily? I lived through every day of it. Every smelly squishy BS turd. Maybe...
  4. Todd Burch

    FSD v12.x (end to end AI)

    OK, so if both people who claim to have posted about it are legit, how do you explain the discrepancy that one claims (with words only) that it can't even hold the damn lane, whereas the other (posting video) shows essentially on-par performance with 12.3? I'm not saying it *can't* be true. But...
  5. Todd Burch

    FSD v12.x (end to end AI)

    There are bulls who make themselves look stupid, and bears who make themselves look stupid. Some people will cheer the stupid bull stuff, others will cheer the stupid bear stuff. Some bulls will cheer a positive 12.4 review and share it as fact. Some bears will say it's nonsense and call it a...
  6. Todd Burch

    FSD v12.x (end to end AI)

    Let me ask you this: If 12.4 really is drastically worse than 12.3, that would presume: 1. The autopilot team decided to release something for employee testing that is significantly worse than what's already released. That makes no sense. 2. The autopilot team ignored all of their own...
  7. Todd Burch

    FSD v12.x (end to end AI)

    Not mine! :oops:
  8. Todd Burch

    FSD v12.x (end to end AI)

    LOL why would you assume that "70% of his net worth is in tesla stock" is gospel? If that is a lie, then your question is irrelevant. If someone says "I have a massive yacht because I am a billionaire", you are basically saying "well, he MUST have a yacht...after all, he's a billionaire!"
  9. Todd Burch

    FSD v12.x (end to end AI)

    So this guy says it's completely unusable. The earlier guy posted, apparently with an identical software version, and people thought it looked identical to 12.3. So one or both is likely lying. Time to stop trusting the internet!
  10. Todd Burch

    FSD v12.x (end to end AI)

    I got a bumper sticker that just says: "I creep. A lot." People (women in particular) seem to keep their distance--I'm assuming so that if the car makes any strange maneuvers there won't be a collision.
  11. Todd Burch

    FSD v12.x (end to end AI)

    Those dudes already work probably 60 hours a week, and you want them to work more?!?
  12. Todd Burch

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Yeah I'm not saying that the only reason people aren't getting EVs is because legacies aren't committing. There are obviously practical reasons (people who drive a lot like traveling salespeople might not want to stop to charge, people may not have access to convenient charging, people who tow a...
  13. Todd Burch

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Even Farley can't be trusted. I thought he had finally figured things out. I guess not. They won't commit until they figure out how to make EVs profitably. Which means Tesla is going to have to go it alone along with BYD and the other Chinese EV manufacturers until legacy gets their heads out...
  14. Todd Burch

    FSD v12.x (end to end AI)

    That doesn't sound intentional--it could be that Tesla forgot to remove those ex-employees' vehicles from the "alpha" tester list. Seems like a potential lawsuit waiting to happen if a non-employee got a version to test with before releasing to the public and there was a problem.
  15. Todd Burch

    FSD v12.x (end to end AI)

    I’m thinking that “leak” of 12.4 a few days ago was fake. If you followed the posts from him on Twitter, he was no longer a Tesla employee when the video was recorded and said a few other questionable things.
  16. Todd Burch

    High lights of 2nd day of driving FSD:

    I live near several multi-mile tunnels that go quite a bit under the Chesapeake Bay. I’ve never had trouble with FSD holding the lanes while in these tunnels without a GPS signal, so I think the wandering over the shoulder is not related to the GPS signal message.
  17. Todd Burch

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Too much added cost and complexity. Don't think we'll see this on the higher volume cars.
  18. Todd Burch

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I'm a bull but of the view that we'll see "only" limited supervised Robotaxi by the end of the year. Meaning Tesla will have a pilot program with a safety driver. If we're very lucky (and by then we'll be quite a bit wealthier if so) the safety driver will come out sometime next year.
  19. Todd Burch

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    You are aware that Elon's other companies "help" Tesla immensely too, right? It's not just a one-way street. Examples: -Cybertruck's cold-rolled stainless steel 30x alloy originated at SpaceX -SpaceX helps with a lot of materials science tasks for Tesla. They trade people and knowledge...
  20. Todd Burch

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    How does 95% compare to diesel semis? I searched a bit and couldn't find a comparable number.
  21. Todd Burch

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Agree. a semi truck FSD will require a significantly different training dataset than passenger vehicles. Tesla won't be able to start gathering a lot of this useful data until the semi fleet gets quite a bit larger.
  22. Todd Burch

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Lots of people have financial models for robotaxis. What about for shipping? If, in a few years, Tesla had autonomous semi trucks, every shipping company in the world would want them. Suddenly you have no driver fatigue time limits, don’t have to pay drivers, don’t have to train them, etc...
  23. Todd Burch

    FSD v12.x (end to end AI)

    But a step forward is a step forward. Let's at least appreciate that we're moving in the right direction. Hopefully it will get even better with 12.5.
  24. Todd Burch

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    They will continue to have a nag probably until the car is certified as a level 4 system.
  25. Todd Burch

    FSD v12.x (end to end AI)

    "Downrezzed" was not a good term. Elon used "Emulated". I have no insight into what they're doing to emulate HW4 as HW3.
  26. Todd Burch

    FSD v12.x (end to end AI)

    Typo, I think he meant "nag".
  27. Todd Burch

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Because he feels they are unsafe for the riders due to a lack of safety structure.
  28. Todd Burch

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    The CEO of a public corporation cannot simply take intellectual property from that corporation. That is called theft. Elon would be spending a lot of time in prison. This will never, ever happen. Let’s stop considering it as a possibility.
  29. Todd Burch

    FSD v12.x (end to end AI)

    Here’s the post:
  30. Todd Burch

    FSD v12.x (end to end AI)

    Elon mentioned that HW4 is being downrezzed to HW3 in current evolutions of FSD--so there shouldn't be any significant differences between HW3 and HW4 right now.
  31. Todd Burch

    FSD v12.x (end to end AI)

    Yes this is a new issue with v12. Indicating a lane change manually isn’t consistent. On city streets, sometimes it will change the lane. Sometimes it will waffle and go back, and sometimes it will just cancel the change altogether. I think that will be fixed in 12.4. I don’t recall having...
  32. Todd Burch

    FSD v12.x (end to end AI)

    Just don't record a report and you should be fine.
  33. Todd Burch

    FSD v12.x (end to end AI)

    Absolutely, I see a lot of silly stuff like this too. Tesla needs to open up a way to crowdsource corrections for these routing issues, and be responsive to fixing them. I'm sure it's on their roadmap, but maybe not their priority until we get a little closer to robotaxi-ready.
  34. Todd Burch

    FSD v12.x (end to end AI)

    The Litmus test: If you can look at video from Chuck’s cameras and determine the right time to go purely from that video, the cameras are sufficient and so can AI. By looking at the output of the cameras you remove the advantage eyes have over the camera. Since we can all do this, the...
  35. Todd Burch

    FSD v12.x (end to end AI)

    Yeah some laws are stupid. Forcing traffic to the right lane even when no other cars are around means there is uneven wear on the asphalt--more wear in the right lane than the left, increasing the need for road construction (just like you get increased wear on rear tires of a RWD car if you...
  36. Todd Burch

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I don't think you're wrong. And I suspect that's exactly Leo's point for posting his vote publicly. I think he's doing this so that he can talk to someone on the board and make his point. I think ultimately once that happens he'll switch his vote back.
  37. Todd Burch

    FSD v12.x (end to end AI)

    Lol sorry Chuck, that’s only evidence that some Teslas are driving through your neighborhood. Evidence? Really? How do you know it's 12.4 and not 12.5? How do you know it’s validation and not data gathering or experimentation? Wayyyyyy too many people post speculation as fact.
  38. Todd Burch

    FSD v12.x (end to end AI)

    If there’s nobody creeping up behind you, you should find that it generally will stay in the left lane. When someone comes up behind you and there’s nobody in front of you, it should get over. (This is how I usually drive). Highway logic isn’t using the new neural net stuff yet.
  39. Todd Burch

    FSD v12.x (end to end AI)

    Elon confirmed in a tweet to expect solid hand gesture recognition in 12.5.
  40. Todd Burch

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    For how many multibillion dollar companies are you currently the chief executive officer? You understand both Tesla AND SpaceX are consistently in the top 5-10 companies where engineering graduates want to work?
  41. Todd Burch

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Yeah really. Let's compare track records! Who's the one who has an extremely long record of highly motivated employees and long-term success?
  42. Todd Burch

    FSD v12.x (end to end AI)

    I think he got lucky. I had to disengage this morning because the car was heading at 35mph to a 20mph well-marked school zone with flashing lights. (Disengaged right after I passed the sign and the car was showing no signs of slowing. I think we’’ll see reliable school zone reactions in 12.4 or...
  43. Todd Burch

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Where on earth do you see Tesla's auto margins at "razor thin"? They're nowhere near razor thin. As reported in Tesla's Q1 10-Q filing, automotive gross margins were 18.5%, among the best in the industry:
  44. Todd Burch

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Not only that, but when people feel like they need to be tighter with their spending, they are less likely to spend on a new technology that they are not fully comfortable with yet--even though this is a quite irrational decision (EVs have been prevalent for over a decade now, and almost...
  45. Todd Burch

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Car market IS slowing down. Elon even announced a while ago that he expected this would happen and here we are. Lot’s of people are thinking that “Elon has killed the demand for Tesla.” The reality is the entire market has been slowing down. Teslas didn’t suddenly get undesirable in the last...
  46. Todd Burch

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I think he’a referring to all of the additional qualifications that are required for the Mercedes system to be considered Level 3–following a car below a certain speed, etc.
  47. Todd Burch

    FSD v12.x (end to end AI)

    As long as the shoulder is paved, what does it matter? I drive on rural 2-lane roads with high speed limits (45-50 mph) often. Whenever a car is coming from the other direction, I always slide over if there is paved shoulder and there aren't any potholes to avoid. Not a dramatic amount, but...
  48. Todd Burch

    FSD v12.x (end to end AI)

    Your job should also be to not get in other people's way where reasonable without compromising safety. I'm not talking about pulling over for people going 100 mph down a surface street. I'm talking about taking excessively long pauses at stop signs, driving 5-10 mph below the speed limit...
  49. Todd Burch

    FSD v12.x (end to end AI)

    Not counting driving within parking lots, I would say more than 90% of my disengagements have NOT been to prevent behavior that would cause an accident. A vast majority of them are because it's signaling to go into a lane I don't want it to, because it's going too fast, because it feels like...
  50. Todd Burch

    FSD v12.x (end to end AI)

    It’s not intended to be used in parking lots. Driving in parking lots will be an entirely separate neural network that’s trained purely on parking lot driving. Much like how the car currently transitions from v12 to the old highway stack when getting on the highway, it will transition to a...