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This is what I'm keeping my eye on. The first significant business case for the use of all these models that people are buyign Nvidia's chips that isn't an advertising business case. Definitely not saying that ads aren't a valuable business model - obviously they are. But that's also a...

Having the compute to learn a model is arguably the most trivial piece of all of the stuff that needs to come together to learn a functional and useful model (such as autonomous driving). Existence or non-existence of the Blackwell chip only meaningfully changes the size of the moat relative to...

I don't like being pedantic, and I do understand the information you are trying to get together. When people are generally talking about "the greeks" in the context of options, they are talking about delta, gamma, theta, vega, and rho. Delta = the change in the price of the option per $1...

I figure the real benefit is a combination of attacking the problem for car buyers where they most notice it - the car loan. And they want to lower the price anyway, but have begun to figure out that Wall Street likes buying down the interest rate on the car loan a LOT more than lowering the...

For me its pretty simple. I already agreed to this pay back in 2018 and Elon has delivered on his end of the deal. Withdrawing earned pay isn't ok by me, and I think short sighted as well. Delaware has already created some trouble for itself I think - the state has claimed the right to cancel...

Truly - invalidation of his 2018 compensation plan is unprecedented. Really really hard to assume that was going to be invalidated in its entirety, and the shareholder vote that overwhelmingly authorized it would be nullfied.

I reserved first day and have been invited to order. We're waiting to actually order - not in a rush to proceed.

And yet - you also knew exactly what she was saying and needed zero time whatsoever to translate :D

I do understand the idea behind HODL (Hold On for Dear Life), but I really don't like the term. For me, baked into that term, is an implicit awareness that the person isn't actually a long term investor in the business. Rather they think that a long term investment might be a good idea, but...

Nice - I've never heard of that :)

This is an important, and I think scary, dynamic. Throughout history we go back and forth between defenders being best suited for doing damage to attackers, and attackers having the edge to do damage to defenders (think castle walls and cannon - being behind castles walls was a bad plan when...

The nice thing about where you're at, depending on just how easy it is to turn the FSD subscription off and on, is you can turn it on periodically when you're reading about problems you've seen being corrected in some release. My experience of the last few years is that FSD has taken big...

If you're incorporating FSD technology related information into your investment thesis then I highly, highly recommend you either be driving a Tesla FSD (best), or at minimum get a test drive from a friend / Tesla that includes you being in the driver seat and driving for at least a few miles...

Sounds like a calendar spread

I proceeded with a straight roll of 155/185 call spreads expiring tomorrow. Out 1 week and because the spread was <1/2 ITM I was able to keep the strike while also adding a $1 credit. I think they have a decent chance of being OTM by expiration tomorrow, and I still prefer these spreads being...

And he's not taking the bait!

I like that there are several people answering questions, and not exclusively Elon. I think these are the questions put together ahead of time so they've been able to prep the different people answering, but the point is that there are others than Elon talking. For me at least this is a big...

As you well know if you think you're missing something and its just too good to be true... then it is :) My suggestion - even if you see these as different (and I also see these as different from the emotional and how well I can manage them side), analyze the buy-write as if you were selling a...

I know that it doesn't emotionally feel the same as a CSP (cash secured put), but a buy-write is identical to a CSP. The only difference due to margin is if you're using margin to buy the shares in the buy-write. If you have 100% of the cash to back a put, or 100% of the cash to buy the...

No

LEAPs cheat sheet. As I understand things we are larding up the term LEAP with a bunch of extra meaning. We use LEAP to mean a long dated long / purchased call. Long being more than 12 months. But really a LEAP is just a 12+ month DTE option. You can buy or sell, puts or calls, put them...

The wildcard that I have lost some cycles to, is whether the investor community is about to experience a ChatGPT moment regarding FSD technology development. In this situation AI type multiples and hype are suddenly the driving story about the company, and as we've seen with NVIDIA, its hard to...

not-advice I hope I can get this articulated clearly - I am increasingly of the view that in the short to medium term (I take medium out to 2 years / end of option chain) the market is at the start of a fundamental reassessment of the correct valuation of TSLA and Tesla. My long term view (10+...

not-advice One idea for DITM spreads that I've been using effectively this year is a flip roll. Round numbers - you can flip roll an ITM call spread to an equally ITM put spread with the same expiration, but one strike worse, for a net credit. I don't know how far ITM the spread is that...

This right here is exactly the sort of anecdotes we'll be having while the software is still not all that close to ready, but still heading in the right direction. Features where the experience has noticeable differences among users like this. I used to teach an introductory data science...

I am equally blown away by just how good the current FSD is. I found the Auto Max Speed setting particularly good - great job of choosing the car's speed most of the time. I agree that in the march of 9s, this edition of FSD is a big step forward towards robotaxi. I do not agree that FSD, or...

Position update for me - I shifted heavily short yesterday when shares were off ~$4; so far that's proving good timing for me. Heavily short means that the overall portfolio is roughly flat with shares off 2.75% today. The part that actually shows a loss are the shares that I have a 10+ year...

+1 2017 Model X. Still driving that Model X with a bit over 100k miles now. But I'm an anecdote :)

There is a big difference between chip design like NVDA does, and chip fab like TSMC / Samsung / Intel / Global Foundries (such as TSMC fabbing the chip designs from NVDA). As far as I know between those 4 that is the complete universe of companies that fabricate chip designs on leading edge...

I don't KNOW. This is GUESSWORK and SPECULATION. But I do have 1 idea that I think worth mentioning because if my guess is right I can see this having the same sort of share price impact as the Hertz announcement (you might not agree with the impact, were this even true). I begin with this...

In my mind these are reasons for the long term value of the company and the share price, and I share them. These are not reasons to use for short term trades. We've seen plenty of instances where the market can remain irrational for far longer than we believe possible. 2013 to 2018ish comes...

Is it just me - I was expecting a lot more negative press coverage of the P&D than I've been actually seeing. In the past P&D could be counting on seeing press explaining how it was less good than it seemed. Like at least some of the authors seem to be aiming for. Now we get an actually bad...

P&D is an interesting event because, at least for me, it encapsulates one of the core ideas that I've had to come to grips with. As a long term buy and hold shareholder I don't care about the D - it's all about the P for me. As long as I believe that Tesla is supply constrained (and I still do...

P&D contains production and delivery units information. That's all.

Oh I wasn't looking to sell that strike :) I was looking to buy, and paying 1/2 of the potential gain, that gain being dependent on the inevitable bankruptcy in the next year, is not enough potential gain for the risk. I'll keep an eye out. I hadn't thought about selling puts against the...

I figure its a penny stock that just hasn't caught up with that. The market seems to agree with me. At least when I looked yesterday a max dte $20 strike put costs $10. Paying $10 for a position with a max value of $20, simplistically, sounds like the market is thinking 50/50 the company is...

Here's how I'm thinking about these: For movement - the ones I buy cost me around $25-30 so far, and they move $5 worth up and down with frequency. $5 move on $30 is a 16% gain. Those $5 option price moves happen frequently - today's $10 move in the share price will have been close to a $5...

I don't have insight there, but I did decide later in the market to crank in some negativity from the bridge in Baltimore. I figure that we'll see supply chain disruptions. I don't expect there to be much direct impact to Tesla, but I see the stock market as priced to perfection, with Tesla...

Exactly this. It's not new cash in hand, and I expect that the recognition will get first paragraph billing as a 1 time item. The original cash flow didn't get that much attention, but it'll be discounted as a one time item and the EPS will get that backed out. The reality the way investors...

Not quite the same message as the headline suggests.

Sorry for the bump - I have nothing to add. Just noticed that this thread, that has formerly been one of the most active and interesting threads in this forum, has fallen all the way back to page 3. I find that interesting :)

I got emails from Tesla to configure and order my Foundation series Cybertruck (waiting for the non-Foundation, and then probably another year of manufacturing for early build kinks to get worked out) AS WELL AS a take delivery from inventory by March 31 and we get to port our free supercharging...

Any idea which of those funds / ETFs (if any) are making those purchases on a discretionary basis? First thought, this being Vanguard, is that these are actually or effectively index funds and just ongoing flow of money into those funds is getting deployed across the range of stuff that...

I don't like rolling for a debit for multiple reasons. One of them is that I feel like I'm taking my loss and throwing a few extra logs on the fire in an attempt to save it. At least with a credit I'm building up what I've gotten out of the position to offset that loss if/when I finally wrap...

Reasonable odds of a disproportionate impact on Russian civilians, to the degree that finished petroleum products are needed for the war. I figure the war machine will be the last consumer to be rationed, economy logistics will be next to last, and consumers the first (if we subdivide...

You realize the loss whatever you roll to. What you're talking about is cash flow - -$6k cash flow will realize that loss, and establish a new cost basis that will eventually lead to another realized gain/loss. A roll transaction is really 2 transactions that the broker does as a single...

https://www.knightfrank.com/research/article/2021-03-01-how-much-wealth-gets-you-into-the-global-top-1 In the US its about $5M to be top 1% (net worth). https://www.investopedia.com/financial-edge/1212/average-net-worth-of-the-1.aspx $400-600k (individual, family) for top 1% income in the...

What do you see in the environment that leads you to this?

At a societal level this kind of deflation is a huge positive. Cars will need a smaller and smaller fraction of the family budget over time. But in the short term while the cost to build these things is still plummeting, and for individuals that expected the $67k residual value and now have...

I've got a mess to clean up and I'd like to see what holes people can poke in this logic I've applied. I flip-rolled some -200/+170p put spreads expiring next week, out to -145/+175c call spreads expiring in April. Yes - DITM on one side, to DITM on the other side. I rarely roll for a debit...