I guess I don't understand the reason for the snarky comment. It may be obvious but it was a reasonable statement. People told Tesla they would fail because other companies had years of experience in a market where they had zero. Now people are saying the same thing about Apple. It is also reasonable to point out that having $200B in cash or cash equivalents gives Apple a lot of flexibility.
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I guess I don't understand the reason for the snarky comment. It may be obvious but it was a reasonable statement. People told Tesla they would fail because other companies had years of experience in a market where they had zero. Now people are saying the same thing about Apple. It is also reasonable to point out that having $200B in cash or cash equivalents gives Apple a lot of flexibility.
Apple has the money to make a lot of mistakes and still recover. I don't doubt that Apple can produce an electric car eventually, I'm only skeptical they can have something into production by 2019. Another article I saw the other day indicated that when Apple said they were going to "release" a car in 2019, that only meant they would be done with the design work and the design would be ready for testing at that point. If that's what they mean, that might be possible. Testing a car before starting full production can take 2 years or more, especially for a new car from a company that hasn't built cars before. It was quite a while between the unveiling of the prototype Model S and X and production start. I believe the Model X prototype was unveiled in early 2012.
Apple probably thinks Google, Uber and one or two others are aiming at 2019 to release of a low speed autonomous urban taxi beta. So is apple targeting that biz, or making a car we can buy?
Maybe both.
Tesla likely doesn't have the resources to do the model 3 plus compete in the uber taxi biz. The beta of the autonomous urban taxi probably won't have regular DOT certification. They don't even need to do the beta in the U.S. or western Europe.
So I think 2019 is a google/uber date.
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Jobs figured it out. Perhaps he didn't tell anyone at Apple.
Maybe both.
Tesla likely doesn't have the resources to do the model 3 plus compete in the uber taxi biz. The beta of the autonomous urban taxi probably won't have regular DOT certification. They don't even need to do the beta in the U.S. or western Europe.
So I think 2019 is a google/uber date.
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Jobs figured it out. Perhaps he didn't tell anyone at Apple.
Apple has way more resources than Tesla is a mute point.
When Apple came out with iPod, Microsoft had way more resources. And then this happened.
How Microsoft Lost Its Mojo: Steve Ballmer and Corporate America’s Most Spectacular Decline | Vanity Fair
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Elon said this a while back - Talk is super cheap. Yeah, the battery industry has to have more BS than any industry I've ever encountered. It's insane. ... And everyone and their mom is approaching us about technology improvements, I think, literally, and their mom in some cases. ... Yeah. And, but my top advice really for anyone who says they've got some breakthrough battery technology is please send us a sample cell, okay. This - don't send us PowerPoint, okay, just send us one cell that works with all appropriate caveats, that would be great. That's sorts out the nonsense and the claims that aren't actually true.
Inline with that sentiment, I will say: auto-industry and apple speculators gotta have some of the most BS that I have ever seen. Show me a working prototype or proof-of-concept that you have a 200-mile car. Then I will believe. Not concept cars or show cars or some announcement or speculation.
When Apple came out with iPod, Microsoft had way more resources. And then this happened.
Microsoft’s Lost Decade
How Microsoft Lost Its Mojo: Steve Ballmer and Corporate America’s Most Spectacular Decline | Vanity Fair
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Elon said this a while back - Talk is super cheap. Yeah, the battery industry has to have more BS than any industry I've ever encountered. It's insane. ... And everyone and their mom is approaching us about technology improvements, I think, literally, and their mom in some cases. ... Yeah. And, but my top advice really for anyone who says they've got some breakthrough battery technology is please send us a sample cell, okay. This - don't send us PowerPoint, okay, just send us one cell that works with all appropriate caveats, that would be great. That's sorts out the nonsense and the claims that aren't actually true.
Inline with that sentiment, I will say: auto-industry and apple speculators gotta have some of the most BS that I have ever seen. Show me a working prototype or proof-of-concept that you have a 200-mile car. Then I will believe. Not concept cars or show cars or some announcement or speculation.
Yet you say this area is a moot point. You need to make up your mind. Or perhaps use a dictionary.
This is not just speculation. Have you looked at the (filed by A123 in their poaching complaint) A123 vs Apple court documents? Have you looked at the car/battery/mechanical engineers (LinkedIn sources, people moving to Apple) hirings reported by 9to5Mac? Have you looked at the documents uncovered by the Guardian involving US officials (access to car test tracks etc.)?
Either you think all these publications got it completely wrong or a few hundred (soon 1800 according to the WSJ) car and battery experts at Apple just play poker indoors in their secret location or enjoy the beaches in California doing nothing...
Apple doesn't show stuff in progress or concepts. If they continue their usual modus operandi with the car project:
Ignoring all leaks (and there will be leaks, hard to hide a car in testing phases...), they will likely send out a PR invitation one day and...boom...the car or whatever mobility initiative they are working on will be shown off close to the actual release.
PS: Of course they could still stop the project betwen now and 2020. But moving to close to 2000 people means the project already took several hurdles along the way (maybe even got accelerated according to the latest WSJ article).
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There never were credible rumors for a TV with a screen moving into production.
The TV rumor was propagated by AAPL analysts with a mediocre track record (Munster et al.), later also based on one quote by biographer Isaacson (who didn't get a lot of technical details right in his SJ biography, not a good source).
Same for hirings linked to TVs, there never was credible evidence beyond mere R&D TV lab concepts. Wearables (now we already have the Watch on sale, the first item in the space from Apple) and the car project are different:
Many sources including paid financial publications with more careful track records/checking, LinkedIn confirmation (hirings by Apple) and additional reports by bloggers with a good track record on all things Apple.
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Let's say Apple launches a car in 2019. Apple will eat up the world's supply of automotive batteries. Tesla and Apple will be the only ones left with batteries. The direct result of this will be that profits will crater at every automaker because nobody has resources like Apple and Apple and Tesla will take the high margin market other than trucks, which will only be a matter of time coming. Basically the phone scenario would play out again if whatever Apple launches is even remotely compelling.
I never said I believed the 2019 date. There I just don't know. I just responded to what I felt was a very snarky comment.
I hope Cook is smart enough to realize that Tesla isn't the enemy. Tesla can sell 1M cars a year and will only be 1% of the market.
As for the failed TV project, I do believe Apple looked at the TV market. I also think they canned it before any huge staffing took place. The car is different. It has clearly gone much farther than the TV project ever did.
It is clear that the car project is well underway. Just look at who has been hired. I expect that Apple can execute in a shorter time frame than Tesla did due to superior resources and the ability to use the Model S as a guide.
I find the battery question more interesting then actually manufacturing the car. The Supercharger network could be copied in a year. I am not so sure about the battery issue. Apple won't be building a car with the idea of selling 50K units.
I doubt we will see a fully autonomous platform in the initial car. That may be Google's goal but I think Apple's goal is different.
I hope Cook is smart enough to realize that Tesla isn't the enemy. Tesla can sell 1M cars a year and will only be 1% of the market.
As for the failed TV project, I do believe Apple looked at the TV market. I also think they canned it before any huge staffing took place. The car is different. It has clearly gone much farther than the TV project ever did.
It is clear that the car project is well underway. Just look at who has been hired. I expect that Apple can execute in a shorter time frame than Tesla did due to superior resources and the ability to use the Model S as a guide.
I find the battery question more interesting then actually manufacturing the car. The Supercharger network could be copied in a year. I am not so sure about the battery issue. Apple won't be building a car with the idea of selling 50K units.
I doubt we will see a fully autonomous platform in the initial car. That may be Google's goal but I think Apple's goal is different.
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
It's not just batteries.
A mass expansion of Apple into the automotive sector is going to be a huge gravitational force for talent specific to EVs. The top people who aren't going to Tesla won't be going to Ford, GM, and Toyota (or their suppliers of electronics and software). They'll be going to Apple.
I believe that in the next 5 years, Apple's acquisition of talent is going to damage the traditional automakers more than anyone realizes.
When the Gigafactory comes online, the current factory space being used to make Tesla batteries will be freed up which is an opening for someone, but the capacity there is only for 100,000 cars a year. Good volume for a small volume production car, but not big enough for someone who wants to be a big player. It might be enough as a starting point for Apple if they plan to also build their own Gigafactory.
I also don't believe Tesla is going to stay in the top end of the market. The Model 3 is aimed at the high middle of the market, but as batteries get cheaper, they can sell the same cars more competitively with ICE cars similarly equipped. I think Tesla's long term goal is to offer a wide range of cars from entry level to luxury like most major car makers.
Panasonic can make cells, but they don't have the expertise to make battery packs and or gigafactories. I'm sure they could come up with something, but it won't be to the level that Tesla is at. It would make more sense for Apple to throw that money at Tesla to build them a gigafactory as a product.
That's certainly an option. The reason I don't consider it as much is that for Apple, Tesla is a competition. Most current manufacturers have chosen LG and Samsung as their battery suppliers including diamler who should have a lot more insight into Tesla than anyone else.
But I guess Apple works with Samsung for iPhone.. So ya, I cannot rule it out.
Regarding pack, I am sure Apple can learn using Tesla patents. It also depends what kind of design do they come up with and what cell structure do they use.
Apple and Samsung work together on the iPhone? I find that surprising if true. The Samsung Galaxy is the #1 competitor to the iPhone and the two companies have had a lot of law suits. I would think Samsung would be the last tech company Apple would want to partner with for anything.
Elon Musk has made it clear he is very open to cooperation with potential competitors if they are advancing his agenda (making EVs mainstream in the car world). I would think he would welcome Apple with open arms if they wanted to share technology with Tesla. They probably wouldn't be able to buy many batteries from Tesla with only one Gigafactory because Tesla will be consuming all the output. However, I would expect Elon would be open to partnering with Apple to build a Gigafactory II and would welcome Apple to be a supercharger partner.
Apple does have a corporate culture where they want to own their own technology rather than use others, but they have used technologies that were industry standard so it isn't beyond the realm of possibility that the iCar be compatible with Superchargers and possibly use Tesla made batteries.
A car is such a departure from past practice for Apple that there are a lot of unknowns here. All Apple products up to this point have essentially been computers or things that work with computers. The iPhone and iPod are essentially special purpose computers. A modern car has a lot of computing in it, but it's more than just a computer. For one thing a car needs to have a lot more moving parts than any computer does. You also have to deal with motors and laws about use of the road in jurisdictions around the world.
As I've said before, of all the players saying they will build a BEV, I believe Apple is the most capable of delivering. They have the money, the experience with large tech projects, and the corporate culture to innovate that is only rivaled by a few companies. However, I think this project will look somewhat different from other Apple projects because a car is so different from everything else they have ever done.
Apple has a long history of working with Samsung for iPhone. Most recently for iPhone 6, Samsung built 40% of the 2nd most expensive component of the iPhone - the A8 processor. Before that, for so many years, Samsung was the sole manufacturer of the main processor. Samsung also provided screens and batteries at one point.
The speculation about Apple entering the automobile industry is being silly. Analysts may as well begin speculating about "when" they think Amazon will enter the automobile industry. After all, isn't Bezos "working" on a space ship? All we know is that Apple supposedly has over 1000 people working on an automobile related project. For all we know, Apple is planning to hand over whatever technology its developing, to help the automobile industry the same way Apple is quietly giving away technology to its competitors in the "computer market".
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Tech industry is full of companies competing on one front and cooperating on another. Microsoft, for eg., works cooperatively with almost all tech companies and competes with a lot of them too.
Auto companies have many alliances too - like between GM & Toyota earlier or Nissan/Infiniti & MB now.
Auto companies have many alliances too - like between GM & Toyota earlier or Nissan/Infiniti & MB now.
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