Why 'Fool' Cells.... WHY?

[renim]

Zero Emission Vehicle Credits

note well, its the Hydrogen car manufacturers who are buying ZEV credits.
(Mercedes and Honda for 2014, Toyota for 2015). (there is a lower group of Ford and Subaru also buying credits)
So CARB's ZEV program is effectively penalizing the very manufacturers it is intended to assist. (Toyota, Honda, Mercedes (3/4 of the H2 pioneers) This is what bureaucrats call a perverse outcome.

the supply of cheap ZEVs going forward due to Tesla, GM and Nissan, means even less incentive to sell H2 vehicles, and demand for H2 stations.

 

[vinnie97]

Awesome outcome at that.

 

[hiroshiy]

Vice president of Toyota Mr. Kodaira
小平信因 - Wikipedia

Has been demoted to normal board member in June. He was from METI and aggressively promoting FCV development in Toyota. Less investment into FCV?

 

[renim]

Awesome outcome at that.

which is why CARB is coming up with another cop out for H2 pioneers like Toyota and Honda

and CARB board members are starting to talk about excessive ZEV credits being produced by Tesla etc.

 

[ecarfan]

Northern California fuel-cell drivers still left dry since June explosion

Quote: “A June explosion at a hydrogen production facility in Santa Clara, California, owned by hydrogen producer Air Products shut off the fuel supply to many of the hydrogen filling stations in the San Francisco Bay Area. Months later, many of the region’s hundreds of hydrogen fuel-cell-car drivers have been left with no reasonable choice but to park their cars until fuel supplies returned.”

 

[bxr140]

Yikes.

I accept I may be assigning a characteristic convenient to my narrative, but IMHO the type of person that would buy a fuel cell vehicle--especially in the past few years, lets say since the Mirai came out--is someone that is overtly anti-BEV and likely overtly anti-Tesla. I get someone choosing a gas car over a BEV. I don't get people choosing H2 over BEV.

I wonder if those people have a different perspective after ownership and especially after this situation?

 

[renim]

Yikes.

I accept I may be assigning a characteristic convenient to my narrative, but IMHO the type of person that would buy a fuel cell vehicle--especially in the past few years, lets say since the Mirai came out--is someone that is overtly anti-BEV and likely overtly anti-Tesla. I get someone choosing a gas car over a BEV. I don't get people choosing H2 over BEV.

I wonder if those people have a different perspective after ownership and especially after this situation?

disagree, from memory (which was from facebook), the people (mostly) who bought hydrogen fuel cell vehicles were people with high regards for (Hyundai or Toyota or whomever their manufacturer was)

now to say that Toyota is anti-BEV, definitely agree. but just because a Toyota loyalist buys a Mirai doesn't make them anti BEV. It's not their fault that Toyota keeps avoiding to make a compelling BEV, cause everybody knows that Toyota could, if they wanted to.

and yes, the lawn ornament aspect of a hydrogen fuel cell was very annoying for owners, particularly those who actually expected to rely on the vehicle, (which was most of them, that's why they drive Toyota or Hyundai in the first place) (that and the very deep discounts offered, they were lease value sensitive)

 

[tonybelding]

disagree, from memory (which was from facebook), the people (mostly) who bought hydrogen fuel cell vehicles were people with high regards for (Hyundai or Toyota or whomever their manufacturer was)

That agrees with my intuition on this subject. I suspect these are people who did little-if-any research before buying. Toyota told them, "This is the Car Of The Future™!", and they said, "Gosh, I sure don't want to be left behind!" and then they bought one without thinking about any alternatives. Because it isn't what you don't know that really trips you up — it's what you don't know that you don't know.

And if you asked them about their supposed dislike of Tesla, most of them would say something like: "Telzer? Who makes that? It's some kind of hybrid, right?"

 

[renim]

perhaps something of a cross-post

 

[bxr140]

disagree, from memory (which was from facebook), the people (mostly) who bought hydrogen fuel cell vehicles were people with high regards for (Hyundai or Toyota or whomever their manufacturer was)

For sure I could believe that brand loyalty is a catalyst to exploring an alternative fuel option. However...I simply don't believe there are enough hyper-loyalists out there to fill out the Mirai's sales numbers (for instance), regardless what those owners are self reporting. Some? Sure. Nothing in this world is binary. Many? I don't buy it. People just aren't that gullible.

In the past (think Tesla in 2012 and even 2013, and many of the pick-your-short-range-EVs since then), a prospective BEV owner was typically an engaged and analytical person that did more up front research on what it meant to be a BEV owner than an average prospective ICE buyer. How do I charge? Where do I go to charge? Can I get there? What if I don't get there? Etc... Certainly as BEVs have evolved that has transitioned into less informed owners (the dirt cheap compliance leases also helped lower that bar...). Certainly there's always been a small percentage of people that want to buy the latest and greatest without knowing what that meant (Look at my Tesla!!!). But...I don't think anyone will argue against the notion that that early adopters were generally way up on the gaussian curve of knowledgeable new car purchasers/owners.

I believe the majority of prospective H2 owners are basically the same kind of analytical person as those early BEV adopters. How do I refuel? Where is it located? Etc. So, similar to early BEVs, I contest few people would blindly find their way into H2 ownership with little to no homework.

The big twist is that an engaged and analytical person will find zero upside to fuel cell ownership over BEV for almost every practical use case. That's been the state of things for a number of years, and that comparison has been blown out of the water in the past ~2 years with 'affordable' BEV options like the Bolt and Model 3. Because the gap is so self-evident to anyone that's making an honest assessment, I contest that fuel cell sales are being filled by people who are actively avoiding what they know is the better solution: generally BEV and specifically Tesla.

 

[renim]

F..... Because the gap is so self-evident to anyone that's making an honest assessment, I contest that fuel cell sales are being filled by people who are actively avoiding what they know is the better solution: generally BEV and specifically Tesla.

have you checked out the lease price of a fuel cell vehicle recently?

Toyota MUST move stock, whatever the cost is, its irrelevant. Cash on hood until the deal is done.

recommended retail price is not relevant, what is the lease cost of a mirai with H2 compared to a Tesla 3 with electricity?

if it is cheaper, then there is a market for it. even if it is a loss maker for toyota.

consider the Mitsubishi Mirage, its cheap, it has a valid market, people buying a Mirage are not doing out of spite for better cars.

 

[bxr140]

have you checked out the lease price of a fuel cell vehicle recently?

Other that googling it just now, no. Near as I can tell a Mirai is $350-400 (and a model 3 is $400).

Is that the point you were trying to make?

consider the Mitsubishi Mirage, its cheap, it has a valid market, people buying a Mirage are not doing out of spite for better cars.

I’m not sure how that is relevant to the discussion. The Mirage is an ICE car, with a number of more or less equivalent competitors from various manufacturers. When products are ~equivalent, of course subjective decision elements such as brand preference are going to play a significant role. Fuel Cell vs BEV != Skippy vs Jif, as it were.