What other tech stock to consider?

[defc0n]

Uh thank you. Thank you very much. Up 100% since reading your post on this. What else do you have?

I'm new at all this and my TSLA has me incorrectly feeling like a market wizard. Is simply buying up heavily shorted stocks and waiting for the conspiracy theory nitwits to melt a good move? lol

So long as they don’t go bankwupt it can probably work quite well given enough time and portfolio diversity. Wonder if there is any research out there on that strategy.

 

[ggr]

I've just bought $300 puts against Boeing (currently $309) for end of next week. Their earnings report is at the same time as Tesla's, on the 29th. The reasons:

. The ongoing 737-MAX plane wreck
. Starliner problems on last launch
. Just withdrew from a NASA contract to develop a spaceplane
. Major contractor in the SLS (no new bad news here... I just think it's a disaster)

The market is expecting a $1/share profit. I don't see how that is possible at the moment.

(This post is a sort-of reverse consideration. I rode up with BA when they announced the 787 at the same time as Airbus announced the A340. I thought the rationale for the former made more sense, and now that Airbus has stopped making A340s I guess I was right. But then the 787 was greatly delayed :-(. )

 

[bxr140]

Hard to fault the logic on the earnings play, but interesting decision to buy an expiration so close. Theta is going to nuke most of your position before they even report, and even if underlying does move in your direction the post earnings IV drop will likely nuke a lot of the potential gains.

Easy to throw darts of course, but for your 300 strike I would have gone with something like March 20 expiry (I usually do more like 6 months depending on IV, but I digress...). March $300 is basically equivalent delta and way less IV than the 1/31 (so less to drop post-earnings), which will yield—Black-Scholes witchcraft willing, anyway—similar gains to the 1/31 at a minimum, while simultaneously having a more palatable downside.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Hard to fault the logic on the earnings play, but interesting decision to buy an expiration so close. Theta is going to nuke most of your position before they even report, and even if underlying does move in your direction the post earnings IV drop will likely nuke a lot of the potential gains.

Easy to throw darts of course, but for your 300 strike I would have gone with something like March 20 expiry (I usually do more like 6 months depending on IV, but I digress...). March $300 is basically equivalent delta and way less IV than the 1/31 (so less to drop post-earnings), which will yield—Black-Scholes witchcraft willing, anyway—similar gains to the 1/31 at a minimum, while simultaneously having a more palatable downside.

Awesome advice. Always, always remember that options have a time component which is as important if not more so than strike price and cost.

 

[ggr]

Awesome advice. Always, always remember that options have a time component which is as important if not more so than strike price and cost.

... which is why they would have cost a lot more.

 

[bxr140]

... which is why they would have cost a lot more.

Fair, though most folks would prefer to balance upside with downside. Same capital, fewer contracts, as it were.

Just because case studies are fun, here's a quick P/L of 1/31 and 3/20 positions, normalized to ~$4.5k capital, with a reasonable (IMHO, anyway) assumption that IV on 1/29 will be 10% lower than today (it will, of course, likely run up a bit more before earnings). Short story is that P/Ls cross around $293, and the 1/31 position is essentially an all-or-nothing gamble that price is going to drop more than 5% from current.

There are a few red flags that suggest its not a slam dunk ($292 is the ~2 year low, the ~$290s are a supply/accumulation/support zone, CCI--one of my favorite indicators--is off the charts low, and it is quite possible that -13% over the past two months means a lot of the negative movement is already priced-in). On the upside, 12 months ago BA dropped ~7% in three trading days post-earnings, so its a least possible to beat the 5% bogey.

All that said, best of luck!

 

[strago13]

I have a core holding in TSLA, but I am also really looking for additional areas of investment. What other renewable energy areas are ripe?

It looks like Neoen is one company poised to continue growing as they are expanding their footprint and moving from solar/wind generation into storage as well. I am trying to find the downside here, but really struggling to come up with one.

Thoughts?

 

[Chickenlittle]

I have a core holding in TSLA, but I am also really looking for additional areas of investment. What other renewable energy areas are ripe?

It looks like Neoen is one company poised to continue growing as they are expanding their footprint and moving from solar/wind generation into storage as well. I am trying to find the downside here, but really struggling to come up with one.

Thoughts?

Not commenting on whether they will be successful but wondering if your trying to diversify. If that’s why you are, they are too close

 

[Chickenlittle]

I've just bought $300 puts against Boeing (currently $309) for end of next week. Their earnings report is at the same time as Tesla's, on the 29th. The reasons:

. The ongoing 737-MAX plane wreck
. Starliner problems on last launch
. Just withdrew from a NASA contract to develop a spaceplane
. Major contractor in the SLS (no new bad news here... I just think it's a disaster)

The market is expecting a $1/share profit. I don't see how that is possible at the moment.

(This post is a sort-of reverse consideration. I rode up with BA when they announced the 787 at the same time as Airbus announced the A340. I thought the rationale for the former made more sense, and now that Airbus has stopped making A340s I guess I was right. But then the 787 was greatly delayed :-(. )

I was investor with ramp of 787 but I suspect puts great idea. Very disappointed in performance of company from military tanker (developed entire plane before realizing the refueling component didn’t work) to Poor decision to use old design and end up with a plane whose center of gravity far off. I bet the cost of this debacle will be more than the cost to have started from scratch to better balance. I am not a lawyer but BA e mails will allow families to seek compensation in US (higher awards especially with attitudes expressed in emails). After fixes in they will end up with plane that has damaged reputation and still with center of gravity off. THE ONLY PROBLEM WITH PUTS IS TIMING. This stock should have really dropped more than it has with reputation keeping it up. When will reputation stop protecting it—unknown

 

[canoemore]

Has anyone delved into companies that are pushing forward power-to-gas tech? It's a technology that I expect will become important as renewables grow to supply a larger and larger proportion of grid power. It also seems to be one of the better options for long-term energy storage.

I've found a couple of publicly-traded companies - Nel, a Norwegian company, and ITM Power, a UK company - but I thought that folks here might have suggestions about other players in the industry. Apologies if this sector doesn't fall under the thread's umbrella of 'tech' companies.

 

[tivoboy]

While not exactly a tech stock, what is the community’s view on PCG? Newsom is openly asking Berkshire Hathaway Energy to make a bid. Will they go for it or stay the hell away? Premarket is now in the $3s and I’m wondering if it’s worth a short term risk.

Up a bit over 5x here from posting and initial position. At $20 I Think one should ring the register, it’ll probably top tick ~ $24 shortly thereafter.

 

[dakh]

Given the recent price action I decided to start diversifying. I don't have as solid of an understanding of this space or the company, plus it is hard to understand if the valuation they're looking for funding at is realistic. But, I am pretty well versed in the problem space as a customer and I have used their stuff for some time now and I can confidently say they do work. For me the big question is can they break out of the niche market of mostly biohackers and bust into mainstream acceptance.

Neurohacker Collective - Creating meaningful upgrades to personal well-being

Invest in Neurohacker Collective: Creating meaningful and sustainable upgrades to personal well-being on @wefunder

Very briefly, they have 3 product lines at this point. One is a pill that improves cognitive ability, one that is aimed at anti-aging, and a drink that isn't your usual sugar-caffeine crap that is energy boosting. The overall motto is to come up with stuff that supports the function and balance on the fundamental level in the body instead of just revving up surface things to get a quick hit/boost. If I need to be very productive on a given day I pop some Qualia Mind and turn some brain.fm concentration tunes on my headphones and it is silly how much faster *sugar* gets done, and how much more I enjoy it. Now that mostly works well for things that just need to get done, for pure creativity it probably is not ideal since I tend to think a bit more linearly (but WAY more efficient).

The way funding works is there's a set valuation and you effectively buy a slice of the pie at that valuation. From what I can tell it is completely illiquid at that point. The hope is that eventually there will be a real VC funded round, which will have its valuation that can be above or below 65M. At that point you'll get shares and then it is like any other startup, either it gets bought out by a publicly traded company or goes public directly, neither of those being guaranteed. Lots of risk involved obviously but I personally feel like the risk/reward ratio is pretty good with this one. Not an investment advice etc. just my own opinion and backed up by a little TSLA winnings tossed their way.

 

[Cosmacelf]

OK, so here's how I find good tech stocks to invest in that aren't overpriced. I check this web page - I should be checking it every week or so, but I often forget, and I usually kick myself when I do because I miss things:

IPO Calendar | IPOScoop

So I scan all the new and upcoming IPOs. I personally only look at the technology companies because I don't know enough to be able to evaluate anything else. There is a lot of garbage even in just tech. There are lots of Chinese companies of one form or another that I stay away from (I'm just not plugged into China, so best to stay with a market that I at least keep up with), as well as weird companies that just don't seem to have anything all that interesting.

Every six months or so, I'll find something like bill.com (BILL), which is a Software As A Service (SAAS) company that is a web service for Small/Medium Businesses (SMBs) that allows them to receive bills (and does auto entry - the system literally reads the bill as a human would), route bill/payable approval around the company, and then has payment gateways to pay the bills.

If I can get in on the IPO, great, if not, buying in the aftermarket usually works too. So far, I've found and invested in BILL, DOCU, and ZS this way. Both ZS and DOCU have gone up about 75% since I bought them, and I just bought BILL yesterday just before their first earnings release last night, and the stock went up 15% today (sorry I didn't tell you guys, but I literally found out about BILL yesterday and then had to scramble when I realized the earnings was yesterday too!).

The nice thing about IPOs is that they publish really detailed S1s so you can learn A LOT about the company, its market and its competition by reading through the prospectus.

If I haven't checked IPO Scoop for a while, then I'll go through the last 100 IPO Pricings and see what I missed. That's what I did yesterday to find BILL.

Hope this helps and let us know if you find anything interesting yourselves.

 

[willow_hiller]

If I can get in on the IPO, great, if not, buying in the aftermarket usually works too.

Thanks for this resource.

Having never actually invested in an IPO, what do you feel is a good strategy to approaching them (after having read the S1s and understanding the industry)?

Do you try to buy at the IPO and invest an amount you would be willing to lose? Or after identifying a new company that will do well in a growing market, do you let the initial IPO enthusiasm level off and then jump in?

 

[Cosmacelf]

Thanks for this resource.

Having never actually invested in an IPO, what do you feel is a good strategy to approaching them (after having read the S1s and understanding the industry)?

Do you try to buy at the IPO and invest an amount you would be willing to lose? Or after identifying a new company that will do well in a growing market, do you let the initial IPO enthusiasm level off and then jump in?

IPOs of good companies tend not to cool off much. I won’t let a post IPO jump scare me off, and if I can’t get in on the IPO (very hard to do for a quality company anyways), I won’t have a problem buying at whatever the aftermarket price is. I personally buy growth stocks for the long term, so if I buy at $30 or $40, it isn’t going to matter much in the long run.

All IPOs have lock up periods, typically 6 months, where insiders are prohibited to sell. But 6 months after the iPO, there can be downward pressure if insiders sell. A good recent example was UBER. The founder was no longer CEO having been forced out, so he sold a bunch 6 months after IPO, causing the stock price to go down to $30. The stock quickly recovered though. So if you’re buying post IPO price, pay attention to lockup overhangs which can come from founders and especially VCs which almost always sell as soon as they can (many IPOs effectively don’t have this problem since many founders won’t sell right away).

I only invest in what I think are quality IPOs, so “losing my money” isn’t something that I think about much. If that’s a real risk, I won’t invest in it!

 

[Dare]

Does anyone have an opinion on Virgin Galactic? I took a small position last week just for fun and while I missed the previous run up, it’s done quite nicely so far, returning 25%.

I don’t know much about the company other than I like Chamath Palihapitiya and it’s an interesting business...maybe someday they’ll make money.

 

[tivoboy]

I don’t know much about the company other than I like Chamath Palihapitiya and it’s an interesting business...maybe someday they’ll make money.

All I can say is, this usually isn't a great way to pick companies to invest in.

That said, I think this industry space (no pun intended) is going to be much longer to develop any solid revenue and profitability model than previous new industries. It's going to be a long way to profitability for most of these companies, if ever and sadly one error and the whole things stops or goes dormant for a while. Years while.

 

[Dare]

All I can say is, this usually isn't a great way to pick companies to invest in.

That said, I think this industry space (no pun intended) is going to be much longer to develop any solid revenue and profitability model than previous new industries. It's going to be a long way to profitability for most of these companies, if ever and sadly one error and the whole things stops or goes dormant for a while. Years while.

There’s no doubt about that, which is why I just put in a little cash that I’m willing to lose. Space tourism is such an interesting idea and I don’t think they’ll have any shortage of wealthy people willing to pay the fare. I’m probably not going to be long SPCE, but I might be able to book a nice profit and punch out. We’ll see.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Nvidia: The Way Money's Meant to be Made

RTX ON boys. We're heading to the ray-traced moon!

Nvidia has finally almost recovered to the previous ATH set over 2 years ago before the spectacular crypto crash. Things are looking good with their next generation Ampere GPU technology scheduled for release this year. It's never been a better time to be an NVDA investor.

 

[AudubonB]

I am looking at Nvidia as something that may make the classic “Boy, did you sell too early, having locked in only a 15-bagger instead of a ___ one”.
As those of you who not only are long term readers of this thread but also have a preternatural....or just weird?...memory of my trades, I had bought NVDA at $16.99 and sold in the mid-200s, coming close to a perfect 3- or so year trade.

BUT....I did plow those gains into not just TSLA, which has done smartly better - finally - but also, on the instigation if not recommendation of one of this forum’s senior members, into that “black box” that Chamath Palihapitiya was creating...one that after an 18- or so month gestation period has morphed into Virgin Galactic.

And that investment, via the Units I hold rather than simple shares, has returned in 2020 as handsome a return as TSLA. Thus, from the perspective of seven weeks into the year, it still has made sense for me not to have reinvested into NVDA.

Doesn’t matter. The more appropriate question is: given one more lump of investment cash today, should I place it in NVDA or elsewhere?

For me, the answer is that the risk/reward I see for Tesla is such that it should go to TSLA. For someone with a different investment horizon or a risk/reward that more heavily is concerned with the absolute weight I already hold in Tesla - which is immense - the answer likely will be different, as it would be for someone who for whatever reason cannot countenance the volatility for which TSLA is and probably will continue to be infamous. Neither is correct or incorrect without having answered those other metrics.