TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[STARR X]

This is my primary concern about Tesla. Period.

You bitch about that a lot and New York is underserved. But my experience has been great. I currently use the Decatur Georgia service center and I just got my 6 year / 75,000 mile service done. Same people have been helping me since they opened that location and all very professional. Starting the service call through the website was awesome too.

 

[LoveTSLA]

“The chief financial officer of Chinese tech giant Huawei has been released on a $10 million bail, a judge in Canada ruled Tuesday.”
I think this is positive to the market.

AFH last trade 368.50.

 

[Thekiwi]

I’m Dutch, so I got that far

The description of the activities and the total number of jobs is not comparable to what is happening in Tilburg, especially not when it involves 3000 cars per month. So I think they check them, and maybe install software and minor things. But not drivetrains and other large items.



The final assembly in Tilburg saves 5% on part of the car (there is a 10% import tariff on the car and ac5% import tariff on the parts that are installed later, like battery and drivetrain). So overall maybe a savings of 2.5%.

A European GF would save 10% on the whole car, plus save on shipping and handling costs.

It is also worth considering that having a European GF, just like the Chinese one, removes any future tariff risk for whatever is produced.

Sure, the tariff is 10% now - but on a political whim it could be double or triple tomorrow (see China).

 

[Words of HABIT]

Tesla is providing hidden messages to its Owners on the future share price of TSLA.
Coincidence? I think not.

 

[ReflexFunds]

Hi, everybody. My previous update was on 18 Nov, here in this thread. Here is a new update:

As for deliveries, I estimate about 12,000 Model 3's were delivered in the US in the last week. The reason for the high number is that the cars they shipped early in the quarter to the East Coast have arrived. The order backlog dropped from 20,000 to 8,000. This is a good thing because Tesla has promised 2018 delivery for orders placed by 30 Nov. New order rate is a bit low after 30 Nov. I estimate between 1,700-2,000, new Model 3 orders per week in North America, down from 2,500-3,000 on average before the 30 Nov deadline. This is not a problem because they will start production for Europe in early January. There is a chance EU production could start in the last few days of December if they clear the backlog.

Thanks for your model and forecasts. I don't quite understand how your 8,000 order backlog aligns with your model, surely Tesla still need to deliver 12-15k or so more cars this year to get to your delivery forecast? Given the 15 day average wait time, it seems difficult for many new orders to arrive before year end.

 

[KarenRei]

Tesla is providing hidden messages to its Owners on the future share price of TSLA.
Coincidence? I think not.

View attachment 360237

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"FEATURE REQUEST: Lunar lander should be able to use TSLA stock graphs as terrain"

Seriously, that's not a bad idea Comes across as a joke, but puts the thought of investing in people's minds

 

[bhtooefr]

does anyone know of a traditional automaker planning to use cylindrical cells?

Jaguar is allegedly switching to them (Electrek link): https://electrek.co/2018/09/05/jaguar-battery-contract-samsung-evs/

Also, Rimac seems to have a preference for them, and Rimac is involved in some Jaguar projects, and Porsche owns a 10% stake in Rimac.

 

[EVNow]

AFH last trade 368.50.

Yes, but on volume of 205.

Nasdaq futures are up 1.1%.

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

"FEATURE REQUEST: Lunar lander should be able to use TSLA stock graphs as terrain"

Seriously, that's not a bad idea Comes across as a joke, but puts the thought of investing in people's minds

This is a terrible idea. Soon the terrain will be too high for the screen and much too steep to land on.

 

[Curt Renz]

Zacks - today: Tesla (TSLA) Gains As Market Dips: What You Should Know

 

[sunhelm]

Click here to support Tripp vs Tesla: Help fund the fight organized by Martin Tripp

Meanwhile, Martin Tripp has raised $18.5k on gofundme to "fight Tesla."

Goal is $500k.

Lol, I'm donating to YF if he ever needs a GoFund me campaign:

 

[Krugerrand]

That has been the M.O. for marketing,sales, and service

Scramble mode.

Maybe time to act like a big boy Company?

You mean act like one of those OEMs that have needed to be bailed out by the taxpayers, not paid back their DOE loan nor even used it for the intended purpose (well), been cheating emissions regulations for years, etc...

One of those big boy companies? Um...no.

 

[Troy]

What do you estimate for 2018 total production?

2018 production numbers are as follows at the end of Q3:

• 76,392 Model S+X
• 91,583 Model 3

In Q4, I estimate

• 24,909 Model S+X
• 60,359 Model 3

Therefore 2018 total would be:

• 101,301 Model S+X
• 151,942 Model 3
• Total: 253,243

 

[Troy]

I don't quite understand how your 8,000 order backlog aligns with your model, surely Tesla still need to deliver 12-15k or so more cars this year to get to your delivery forecast?

Here is my Model 3 delivery calculation:
60,359 Q4 production
1,811 will be scrapped or will need rework (3.00%)
8,048 In-transit at end of Q3
6,000 In-transit at end of Q4

Q4 Model 3 deliveries= 60,359 - 1,811 + 8,048 - 6,000= 60,596

 

[Artful Dodger]

AFH last trade 368.50.

Yes, but on volume of 205.

Hi folks,

TSLA had a good day today, which continued in the After-hours session.

NASDAQ shows 1,165 shares of TSLA sold at $368.50 or higher during today's After-hours session (4:01pm-8:00pm) with transactions totaling $429,428.14 at that price (or higher).

The After-hrs Max. selling price was $368.86 and the Min. was $365.50 per share.

Overall, the After-hrs volume-weighted Average Selliing Price was $366.72
That's just 4 pennies off of today's closing price of $366.76

After-hours Summary Dec 11, 2018:
TSLA value of all trades After-hrs: $18,217,935
TSLA shares traded After hours: 49,678
TSLA Avg Selling Price After-hrs: $366.72​

Cheers!

 

[Dynastar]

Tesla will never be able to educate consumers with 30 second clips that cost way too much. The BEST advertising for selling cars will be the 250k cars they sell in the US and their owners.

Agreed. The big guys have to advertise because unless you're an enthusiast they're all more or less interchangeable. As long as Tesla is ahead of the curve they can rely on word of mouth.

In my very middle class neck of the woods I've got one SR sale lined up already and one that I'm working on. He doesn't really want to buy a new car but I lent him my 3 for the week, and well....

 

[sundaymorning]

Tesla is seeking $167 million in damages from the former employee Elon Musk accused of sabotage

"Tripp was represented by Meissner Associates in the whistleblower matter earlier, but is now representing himself, attorney Stuart Meissner told CNBC. Meissner declined to comment further. Tripp also declined requests for comment."

This explains why we’re up $1.50 after hours. The market is pricing in an additional $167 million toTesla’s bottom line for winning this suit. I suggest Tripp work for VW/Porsche and whistleblow them for future software defeat devices to make up that money.

 

[sundaymorning]

representing himself? always the sign of a savvy mind with a strong case ... .... ....

“A person representing himself has a fool as a client.”

 

[AlMc]

This explains why we’re up $1.50 after hours. The market is pricing in an additional $167 million toTesla’s bottom line for winning this suit. I suggest Tripp work for VW/Porsche and whistleblow them for future software defeat devices to make up that money.

Given Mr. Tripp's situation if the judgment goes against him I expect Tesla never sees 167 million from him.

 

[Unpilot]

Trip may be tripping over himself.....badda bing...I will be here all week.