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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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By Claudia Assis

There will be "limited impact" from competition on Tesla Inc. TSLA, -0.07%electric-vehicle sales as the car maker's brand strength and the gradual availability of cheaper Model 3 sedans undercut rivals, analyst Garrett Nelson at CFRA said in a note Tuesday. CFRA raised its rating on Tesla stock to buy from hold and increased its price target on the stock to $420 to $375. "We expect unit costs to continue to fall, reflecting improved operating efficiencies and fixed cost absorption," Nelson said. "We also view the U.S.-China 'tariff truce' as having positive gross margin implications." Shares of Tesla were flat in midday trading and have gained 15% this year, compared with advances of 1.6% and 1.7% for the S&P 500 index SPX, -2.74%.
Good to see at least 1 analyst has the brass to put out a $420 PT.
 
I am thinking about the leaked email again with my tinfoil hats on.
Now I suspect the current cost of 38k for SR might be the retail price after adding a healthy margin, which means they could already break even if they start to make it today.
Remember how he talked about the performance M3 costs 78k? This might be the way he is calculating SR costs too.
 
Someone who's actually dealt with margin calls might know better than I. But if I remember correctly margin calls don't follow market-day rules, they follow "banking day" rules -- you have to deposit your money in the requested number of days whether the market's open or not.

Right, I've seen posted here a 2 day requirement to respond, so if the call came today, they are out of luck trying to sell stock tomorrow. So two banking days turns into only one trading day. If it were a one day margin call, then they need cash or non-market trades.
 
*music notes* Hello 360, my old friend...

In fact, there's something familiar here... what is that tune? Something about it...

OMG

Picture1.png
 
I do think there are people actively trying to keep TSLA below $360. I still think they won't give up until March. At this point it looks like they may be overwhelmed, though.
This is being taken care of as of this week.

I would expect no less with this type of robust behavior in a bloodbath environment such as in today' s markets. Expect Friday or Saturday a post by Fred on Electrek reporting there was a sustained production of 1000+ units/day during the last 7 days. Bears were claiming last Friday's production of over 1000 units was unsustainable even for a week. That should add another tidal wave to consolidate SP next week.
 
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Assuming the InsideEVs number is at least “ballpark accurate” I think it’s safe to assume Q4 model 3 unit sales will see at least double digit percentage growth over Q3.

I know everyone here already expected that - nevertheless it’s still good to see the numbers play out as expected and perhaps those deluded idiots who wanted to believe Q3 was a “fluke” in profitability, not to be repeated, are finally realising Q4 will also be profitable.
 
This is being taken care of as of this week.

I would expect no less with this type of robust behavior in a bloodbath environment such as in today' s markets. Expect Friday or Saturday a post by Fred on Electrek reporting there was a sustained production of 1000+ units/day during the last 7 days. Bears were claiming last Friday's production of over 1000 units was unsustainable even for a week. That should add another tidal wave to consolidate SP next week.

I don't think it was only bears claiming that? I think the consensus on this forum/thread was that 1000 units (cars) production in a day wasn't really achieved (which I agree with)?
 
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I am thinking about the leaked email again with my tinfoil hats on.
Now I suspect the current cost of 38k for SR might be the retail price after adding a healthy margin, which means they could already break even if they start to make it today.
Remember how he talked about the performance M3 costs 78k? This might be the way he is calculating SR costs too.
I wouldn't take 38k as face value: ''depending on how you count it, the current cost of a standard range Model 3 would be around $38,000''

There's a lot of conditional in that phrase! Plus I don't know that any executive with his mind right would just go out and disclose the production cost of a product, even in an confidential email to his employees.

As for the cost of $78k for a P3D, I was under the understanding this was retail price, cost for customer.
 
That would either mean a lot of Canadian sales, or that US Model 3 deliveries exceed 23,330. So I'm not so sure about double digit growth over Q3...

In the first 2 months of Q4 we are already ~4,500 units higher than the first 2 months of Q3 (for US sales at least) - so yes I’m assuming Tesla will be able to at least produce that little bit extra in December to hit 10% sequential growth in Model 3.

Although I haven’t looked at Canada sales - any idea if they are up or down vs Q3?
 
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By Claudia Assis

There will be "limited impact" from competition on Tesla Inc. electric-vehicle sales as the car maker's brand strength and the gradual availability of cheaper Model 3 sedans undercut rivals, analyst Garrett Nelson at CFRA said in a note Tuesday. CFRA raised its rating on Tesla stock to buy from hold and increased its price target on the stock to $420 to $375. "We expect unit costs to continue to fall, reflecting improved operating efficiencies and fixed cost absorption," Nelson said. "We also view the U.S.-China 'tariff truce' as having positive gross margin implications." Shares of Tesla were flat in midday trading and have gained 15% this year, compared with advances of 1.6% and 1.7% for the S&P 500 index SPX, -2.74%.
Good to see at least 1 analyst has the brass to put out a $420 PT.

CFRA has apparently replaced long-time Tesla skeptic Efraim Levy with Garrett Nelson as their Tesla analyst.
 
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