bdy0627
Active Member
Very interested to see if this is a "false" recovery from the opening dip that shorts then hammer down.
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Krugerrand
Meow
Newsflash: Thieves Can Steal Your ‘fill in not a Tesla car choice’ in Seconds by Cloning (cutting a duplicate of) Its Key!!!!
This headline from The Street: "Tesla Shares Dip as Musk Strips Two Colors From Lineup to 'Simplify' Production"
Yes. I'm sure that's exactly why shares are dipping.
On my feed this headline is followed by an extra-large photo of Elon's puff moment!
And how is this photo related to the color change decision? Oh, that's right, its not....
Or maybe he cut Obsidian Black and Metallic Silver because he was high?
CNN is just outrageous and despicable with this obvious misinformation/manipulation campaign.
Well... many keys have immobilizer transponders built in, so it's not that easy.
However, no car has a great defense against a guy with a flatbed wrecker...
Or one of these:
Stock Photo - An illegally parked car being towed away, the port of St Tropez, Var, Cote d'Azur, Southern France, France, Europe
Joe F
Disruption is hard.
Headline: Shorts distance themselves as Elon goes Commando. Film at 11.
davecolene0606
Member
Nomura sez....
Meanwhile, Rogan interview up to 9,975,000 views 67k comments of which 94% are favorable.
Then they fight you*.....
Fire Away!
*Attribution: Workshop Of Nonviolence Institute summed up Gandhi’s philosophy in an issue of WIN Magazine
Meanwhile, Rogan interview up to 9,975,000 views 67k comments of which 94% are favorable.
Then they fight you*.....
Fire Away!
*Attribution: Workshop Of Nonviolence Institute summed up Gandhi’s philosophy in an issue of WIN Magazine
jhm
Well-Known Member
The funny thing is that bond investors look to the stock price to tell them what the market thinks their credit risk is while the stock investors here are led to look at what the bond market thinks the bankruptcy risk is. Basically, when the stock price is down, bond prices will reflect that. The shorts are trying to create a vicious cycle, where negativity in bonds echoes back with more negativity in stocks.
One thing that can put a check on this vicious cycle is for Tesla to start to use its cash flow to repurchase bonds. The current bonds are a good place to start because they must be paid in a few months any way, so why not buy them out cheap, below par?
Sudre
Active Member
All the discussion in this thread is pointless. It is perfectly clear after Friday and Monday’s SP action that the only thing causing the violent mood swings is the shorting. The SP is not down because some anal-yst downgraded to a price that is above where we are at now. The down grade was only so there is an excuse for the drop. We all already knew there was going to be a morning dip. If you didn’t, well, you should not be swing trading or day trading this stock. The shorts were blocked yesterday from dumping so today they are simply back at it. Can’t wait to see the capping today that we saw little of yesterday.
Since 10% of the shorts covered there are tons of share to short so they have massive ammo. That’s why the institutions that loan out shares play this negative news lie. They can not make money if people are not trading because Elon is not offering up new equity for them to sell, for a fee.
Might just be my opinion but it see,s rather clear to me.
Since 10% of the shorts covered there are tons of share to short so they have massive ammo. That’s why the institutions that loan out shares play this negative news lie. They can not make money if people are not trading because Elon is not offering up new equity for them to sell, for a fee.
Might just be my opinion but it see,s rather clear to me.
Mokuzai
Member
Is there any precedent for the SEC permanently applying that Rule 201 to a company?
Wooloomooloo
Member
Everything you just said there is untrue - ordinarily bond traders don't give a crap about stock price, in this case they care a little more (but not a whole lot) because of the potential of debt conversion to equity.
However the bonds are tanking because it's becoming apparent to almost everyone (aside from some delusional outliers) that Tesla are really going to struggle to fund the debt, R&D for the Y, the Truck and continue to ramp up production for lower margin cars, all at the same time. The math doesn't add up even with the most optimistic forecasts. Everyone knows Q3 and Q4 will look rosey because of the higher ASP models being focused on right now. The rubber hits the road in 2019 when higher proportion of lower priced cars are being sold at the same time as debt obligations coming due, a needed boost in R&D, a focus on the semi and additional competition in the market, along with (what is apparently waning demand) because original reservationists were counting on the Fed Tax refund and won't get all of it.
This isn't FUD (in fact it's absolutely certain and there is very little doubt), it has nothing to do with short sellers, it has nothing to so with Musk's antics, it's simply a reality bond traders especially are considering and (it would seem) hedging somewhat heavily.
While this would reduce long term commitments, it might not make sense because new debt would be surely issued at a higher rate, and I don't think Tesla can manage this with the above factors I mentioned. All that cash flow needs to go into R&D, global factories and ramping up semi production.
Last word: I'm not joining the chorus of FUD - I'm a fan of Tesla, I have my $75k Performance almost in my hands, but dismissing this as 'typical' and 'cyclical' and they could 'just buy their bonds back' is nonsense.
So when Deepak Ahuja and Elon Musk say they do not need to raise capitol. That the company will be self funding and cash flow positive....you think they are either lying ...or in your terms a pair of delusional outliers?
RobStark
Well-Known Member
CNN is quoting the price on the 2025 bonds.
Wooloomooloo
Member
Indeed, near term bonds have lower coupon rates and are near par anyway.
Can you elaborate as to why you disagreed with my post?
RobStark
Well-Known Member
"Tesla are really going to struggle to fund the debt, R&D for the Y, the Truck and continue to ramp up production for lower margin cars, all at the same time. The math doesn't add up even with the most optimistic forecasts. "
Wooloomooloo
Member
So you don't agree with that? What are your forecasts for returnable revenue into those things in Q3, 4 2018 and 1, 2, 3 and 4 in 2019?
I can't see it without a new capital raise, and I can't see a new capital raise without issuing new equity, and the stock price isn't looking like it will support that.
Do you have an alternative view?
I think what you see here is the shifting of the short narrative. There is this long list of things they claimed would never happen and then every time Tesla surpasses that target, they move the goal line.
So far, all I`ve been hearing from various short-posters, is that there is no way in hell Tesla will be profitable in Q3 and Q4 - something management has consistently guided to throughout the year and has all but explicitly reaffirmed it now, with 3 weeks left of the quarter.
Now that this seems inevitable, the narrative is changing to "yes, they will be profitable but only because of [reasons]". And reasons will be based on how full of hatred your short is, so it can range of "once the orders for AWD P Model 3 runs out", all the way to Elon & Co cooking the books. This will pass too.
But I believe (hope?), that with more and more months and quarters of profitability and sales eclipsing traditional ICE models, this line of reasoning will lose its powers on the share price. We had the same kind of BS about Model S and X and they are doing just fine, maxing out production capacity. Once those high end US Model 3 orders run out, Europe and Asia will open up. As you`ll see more and more cars on the road, more and more new customers will come in so it should balance out the lower margins on SR. And with the higher volumes (and the redesigned lighter and cheaper SR battery pack), SR will be profitable as well, just not to that extent.
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They raised the number
. The money source itself is separate from this declaration and likely is a loan from a Chinese bank, not a stock raise.
In other words, Tesla is taking out a loan to buy a house...
I agree, that this noise won’t have long lasting effect.
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