TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[generalenthu]

There might be some considerations on their side as far as their max stake size and whether they want the risk of CFIUS rejecting the deal b/c that stake is too large.

If they buy max of what they need now, what happens when Musk needs their funding to close the deal?

Btw, this article suggests they may not have much cash on hands right now and may take few months to procure it:
Saudi fund may only play minor part in Musk's $72 billion Tesla...
This is Reuters though, so not sure if they are lying

Given Reuters' record, I take this as a good sign.

 

[Boomer19]

not sure how accurate this will end up being, but we need to consider these things
Tesla shareholders face possible capital gains tax bill if company goes private

 

[Motor Mouth]

Not asking for credit... but did I get some folks to buy just now?

Imagine all the people biting their nails watching how flat the stock is in this fearful time... wondering if it's going down any more but don't want to miss the miracle. So the slightest sign today that it goes up might trigger something pretty cool.

One thing for sure, it's either going to go up... or go down.

I don't know about "credit" but I did add at $335. I had canceled a buy order a couple days ago at $345 when it went back up and I didn't think it would ever fill and today's action "made me do it." In other words...thanks?

 

[Unknown_Wizard]

If Tesla closes above 340, game over for shorts...

 

[Unpilot]

Why dat?

 

[phil0909]

And there are many different interpretation of 'secured'.

That is true. But there's only one interpretation of this:

"Only reason why this is not certain is that it’s contingent on a shareholder vote."

 

[Moderatefan]

not sure how accurate this will end up being, but we need to consider these things
Tesla shareholders face possible capital gains tax bill if company goes private

Warning CNBC

Already considered. Musk has 20% to be taxed, so he will try his best to avoid taxable scenario.
But speculations are pointless at this point until deal details are announced. Same thing that brokers keep telling everybody - we can't promise anything until details come out.

 

[JRP3]

Macros and more $SCTY merger pattern matching. Great buying opportunities!

As long as Elon acts like a leader like Trump and makes this happen, this will work out fine. But if Elon is chasing the tail of the "news", then he was never serious about going private in the first place, because that's the whole reason to go private, to stop chasing fake news. While Elon might be a bit out of his depth with the total barrage of fake news, he's had great teachers in Donald Trump, and I expect he'll pull through and everything will work out fine.

Missing sarcasm tags, I hope?

 

[loky]

There might be some considerations on their side as far as their max stake size and whether they want the risk of CFIUS rejecting the deal b/c that stake is too large.

If they buy max of what they need now, what happens when Musk needs their funding to close the deal?

Btw, this article suggests they may not have much cash on hands right now and may take few months to procure it:
Saudi fund may only play minor part in Musk's $72 billion Tesla...
This is Reuters though, so not sure if they are lying

That Reuters article is typical example for FUD. Of course SA fund keep their assets in stocks or similar position and need some time to liquidate buyout amount. That time directly defines time between voting and delisting. Usually buyout is done by combination of credit line and liquidation of some stock in timely manner, to avoid too fast liquidation.

 

[Unpilot]

Missing sarcasm tags, I hope?

Yeah he had me till the "Great Leader" part.....maybe he meant "Dear Leader"

 

[Moderatefan]

That Reuters article is typical example for FUD. Of course SA fund keep their assets in stocks or similar position and need some time to liquidate buyout amount. That time directly defines time between voting and delisting. Usually buyout is done by combination of credit line and liquidation of some stock in timely manner, to avoid too fast liquidation.

But if true, it'd be a valid explanation for one of the reasons Saudis may not be buying right now - no cash. So, it was related to the post that I responded to.

 

[generalenthu]

not sure how accurate this will end up being, but we need to consider these things
Tesla shareholders face possible capital gains tax bill if company goes private

I suspect this is the solution for buying in IRA. sell without consequences, and buy in the fund.

Regular brokerage shares will get converted to TSLAP

 

[avoigt]

Great quotes from Ben Kallo:

"... Bears saying Elon going to jail - thats ridiculous."
"I think that an outcome could be that the board says, no, you know 420 is too low. 500 is probably a better number"
"We are focussing on all the wrong things right now. We are focussing on secured, secured I don't know I am not a lawyer."
" The real thing is there are pockets of money that want to invest in Tesla wether its public or private..."

tbc...

Another good data point is he says we are in limbo right now, the board needs to move quickly and expects an answer from a board in 10 days or so.

 

[mikevbf]

But if true, it'd be a valid explanation for one of the reasons Saudis may not be buying right now - no cash. So, it was related to the post that I responded to.

Seems like they had plenty of powder when they needed it on the 7th.

 

[EarlyAdopter]

Great quotes from Ben Kallo:

"... Bears saying Elon going to jail - thats ridiculous."
"I think that an outcome could be that the board says, no, you know 420 is too low. 500 is probably a better number"
"We are focussing on all the wrong things right now. We are focussing on secured, secured I don't know I am not a lawyer."
" The real thing is there are pockets of money that want to invest in Tesla wether its public or private..."

tbc...

Another good data point is he says we are in limbo right now, the board needs to move quickly and expects an answer from a board in 10 days or so.

Bloomberg struck the video down from YouTube, but you can watch the segment here:
Tesla Bull Makes the Case for Staying Public

I like this Ben Kallo guy. Seems level headed, and took Bloomberg to task for putting up some ridiculous short seller on air earlier.

 

[neroden]

6) present an interpretation of a market pricing move as support of the tasked narrative (“look at the movement of TSLA, Tesla bonds, those newly issued credit default swaps,... on news of this latest setback, controversy,...).

Given that market pricing moves rarely if ever reflect news, this piece of the tactic is interesting. Provides strong support to Musk's desire to go private and make step 6 impossible.

 

[Moderatefan]

Seems like they had plenty of powder when they needed it on the 7th.

I don't think anybody admitted when they did the buying. When Musk tweeted, their buying was already done. Likely in Q2, when TRowe and Vanguard let go of 20% of their stakes. So, yes, they may have had cash in Q2 allocated for that purchase, but it doesn't mean they have it now.

 

[Mkorpal]

Great quotes from Ben Kallo:

"... Bears saying Elon going to jail - thats ridiculous."
"I think that an outcome could be that the board says, no, you know 420 is too low. 500 is probably a better number"
"We are focussing on all the wrong things right now. We are focussing on secured, secured I don't know I am not a lawyer."
" The real thing is there are pockets of money that want to invest in Tesla wether its public or private..."

tbc...

Another good data point is he says we are in limbo right now, the board needs to move quickly and expects an answer from a board in 10 days or so.

Don't we need a formal offer before the board can answer?

 

[jhm]

So Reuters reported Saudi Arabia wasn’t involved, and it’s now confirmed they are. Reuters also reported that Silver Lake wasn’t involved.

Did Reuters also report Goldman wasn’t involved? They seem to have quite a streak going.

Reuters has unreliable sources, according to persons familiar with the matter.

 

[generalenthu]

Great quotes from Ben Kallo:

"... Bears saying Elon going to jail - thats ridiculous."
"I think that an outcome could be that the board says, no, you know 420 is too low. 500 is probably a better number"
"We are focussing on all the wrong things right now. We are focussing on secured, secured I don't know I am not a lawyer."
" The real thing is there are pockets of money that want to invest in Tesla wether its public or private..."

tbc...

Another good data point is he says we are in limbo right now, the board needs to move quickly and expects an answer from a board in 10 days or so.

I hope GS and silverlake / KSA PIF / other interested parties get their act together and submit the proposal soon for board spl committee consideration. I am sure Elon is on it.