sundaymorning
Active Member
Gene Munster is one of the best analyst out there, honest, succinct and straight to the point. Glad he’s analyzing Tesla.
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Gene Munster is one of the best analyst out there, honest, succinct and straight to the point. Glad he’s analyzing Tesla.
On the custom neural net hardware front they also briefly had Jim Keller. He probably had a hand in the design. He's worked for DEC, AMD (twice), Apple, Tesla, and Intel, among others. He seems to like laying down the blueprints for a new architecture, then heading for the next challenge and lets others iron out the bugs if necessary. The time line would fit, if they have usable silicon running now. He joined Tesla in January 2016, and then Intel in April 2018, so if he went straight from Tesla to Intel that would be just about enough time to go through the initial production run of a new architecture and be testing it now, if there were no major bugs in the initial layout. Of course they could have already performed several revisions before he left, or he might have left before April - but even if he had just left in April and they had only just did the first prototype silicon since then, it's possible they have working silicon now ...
You were great, the idiot was Adam Jonas.i honestly felt like i was an idiot on the call — too many Qs and thoughts and too little time — but such is life.
Just tried to prioritize what I thought would have most impact and use in 2-3 min timeframe.
ZachShahan
Active Member
You were great, the idiot was Adam Jonas.
OMG — Adam was hilarious! He was the highlight of the call for me.
Though, I found his questions about a Tesla Network a long time back much more useful.
Amazon will be delivering packages autonomously.
Maybe prescient. Who is going to be left?
My sentiment after the call? delighted, confirmed, relieved, encouraged ... I could continue.
Big applause to the entire team on stage that managed to balance strengths and mitigate weaknesses to communicate the good and not so good as well as answering stupid repeating questions in a calm way like e.g. "can Tesla cars turn into terminators used or misused by the military....?"
That is what I expect from a Management team of one of the in the future largest companies by revenue and profit on earth. Stay calm, answer in length, apologize, play together, explain in depth and prove them all to have been wrong in the past with a friendly smile.
We learned a lot of interesting and valuable new information that makes me very confident that the bulls here are on the right track. Tons of new insights that investments in the past like e.g. AP and AI will be game changers in the coming years.
A lot of guidance from the past call has been proven right and correct. The reliability of statements has improved and the credibility is growing significantly.
Demand:
Attracting consumers from lower car segments is a prove that the entire adress-able market for Tesla is way bigger than anticipated and that the 3 is the game changer that will make the difference for Tesla and the entire EV industry
Capital:
More cash on hand than predicted before, lower burn rate and strong revenue equals that this issue is under control. Future: no capital realize required for the foreseeable future.
Production:
5 k/w achieved multiple times in Q2 and 6 k/w in sight. Increase without further capex and no new lines! Bottlenecks do exist but nothing that cannot be solved.
Autonomous driving:
New chip is new level. 2000 Frames is a 10 fold increase an unprecedented in the industry should give AP a jump of capabilities and moving to the top position again.
Margin:
3 is positive and will only grow from here. Clear guidance for all products.
Expansion:
GFs are planned and confirmed. China 2 bn investment 60% below expectation for 250k/units p.a.. Europe to be announced end of year. US GF in the books. Semi, Y, Pick up ect on track. China GF financed by Banks in China.
TE:
Plan to triple growth. Long term view: TE will catch up to automotive in revenue. (Calculate where the car business will be in 10 years and add 100% profitable revenue for TE.)
Profit:
Confirmation again to be GAAP profitable and CFP in Q3 and Q4 AND for the future unless a major incident happens (earthquake or similar). This is huge and a turning point in the history of Tesla.
Negatives:
Growth to 1M car units in 2020 in question but lets no forget that the ASP is today higher than anticipated therefore the net effect may be in the future with the P still to be shipped a 0. Solar roofs need long time to be tested and validated.
The market will need time to digest what happened last night. Most people have a hard time to understand the implications. Most analysts have been proven not to understand Tesla and the company as such at all. Still smart investors and institutional managers are out there who should have heard what they have been looking for.
As the stock is in my view heavily undervalued we should see a positive development in the next 2 months given the confirmation we heard. Once CFP and Profit is confirmed for Q3 more and more investors from institutions will go in as the stock complies with their investment strategy at that point.
Shorts should go out now unless they want to get a parcel from Elon with short shorts like Spiegel will. Some will loose all they invested and more.
At that stage with confirmation of profitability we may see a strong run up and exaggeration to the upside again. It happened in the past and will happen in the future.
Negatives will not disappear and bears and shorts will continue to try to influence investors with FUD. As long as we see that "wall of fear" the stock has and will have upside opportunity.
Big applause to the entire team on stage that managed to balance strengths and mitigate weaknesses to communicate the good and not so good as well as answering stupid repeating questions in a calm way like e.g. "can Tesla cars turn into terminators used or misused by the military....?"
That is what I expect from a Management team of one of the in the future largest companies by revenue and profit on earth. Stay calm, answer in length, apologize, play together, explain in depth and prove them all to have been wrong in the past with a friendly smile.
We learned a lot of interesting and valuable new information that makes me very confident that the bulls here are on the right track. Tons of new insights that investments in the past like e.g. AP and AI will be game changers in the coming years.
A lot of guidance from the past call has been proven right and correct. The reliability of statements has improved and the credibility is growing significantly.
Demand:
Attracting consumers from lower car segments is a prove that the entire adress-able market for Tesla is way bigger than anticipated and that the 3 is the game changer that will make the difference for Tesla and the entire EV industry
Capital:
More cash on hand than predicted before, lower burn rate and strong revenue equals that this issue is under control. Future: no capital realize required for the foreseeable future.
Production:
5 k/w achieved multiple times in Q2 and 6 k/w in sight. Increase without further capex and no new lines! Bottlenecks do exist but nothing that cannot be solved.
Autonomous driving:
New chip is new level. 2000 Frames is a 10 fold increase an unprecedented in the industry should give AP a jump of capabilities and moving to the top position again.
Margin:
3 is positive and will only grow from here. Clear guidance for all products.
Expansion:
GFs are planned and confirmed. China 2 bn investment 60% below expectation for 250k/units p.a.. Europe to be announced end of year. US GF in the books. Semi, Y, Pick up ect on track. China GF financed by Banks in China.
TE:
Plan to triple growth. Long term view: TE will catch up to automotive in revenue. (Calculate where the car business will be in 10 years and add 100% profitable revenue for TE.)
Profit:
Confirmation again to be GAAP profitable and CFP in Q3 and Q4 AND for the future unless a major incident happens (earthquake or similar). This is huge and a turning point in the history of Tesla.
Negatives:
Growth to 1M car units in 2020 in question but lets no forget that the ASP is today higher than anticipated therefore the net effect may be in the future with the P still to be shipped a 0. Solar roofs need long time to be tested and validated.
The market will need time to digest what happened last night. Most people have a hard time to understand the implications. Most analysts have been proven not to understand Tesla and the company as such at all. Still smart investors and institutional managers are out there who should have heard what they have been looking for.
As the stock is in my view heavily undervalued we should see a positive development in the next 2 months given the confirmation we heard. Once CFP and Profit is confirmed for Q3 more and more investors from institutions will go in as the stock complies with their investment strategy at that point.
Shorts should go out now unless they want to get a parcel from Elon with short shorts like Spiegel will. Some will loose all they invested and more.
At that stage with confirmation of profitability we may see a strong run up and exaggeration to the upside again. It happened in the past and will happen in the future.
Negatives will not disappear and bears and shorts will continue to try to influence investors with FUD. As long as we see that "wall of fear" the stock has and will have upside opportunity.
johnnybgood888
Member
Horrible title, but one of the more positive segments I've seen from CNBC on Tesla.
Tesla just had a horrible earnings report, but the stock is higher
Tesla just had a horrible earnings report, but the stock is higher
Must have meant the Volvo Amazon? Right?
Wonderful post! As are so many others here ...
Let me just add that the sound quality was finally acceptable to good! Before I've been so exhausted trying to hear what was said. Clarity on most levels now.
Thanks. I had to multitask during the call. This summary helped a lot.
My brother and I spoke yesterday with some shared thoughts that a lot of "short" analysts have never built anything. The normal course of events scares them, or lets them scare others.
As far as "market action" going forward goes, as long as Tesla attracts new investors in bunches the price will be unstable (manipulated). The process will be: 1) New money comes in protected with 'by the book' stop losses, 2) manipulators see the stop losses (are aware), 3) On light trading days avalanches are triggered and new investors lose their position - at a loss. 4) Stock price recovers.
Don't see that changing.
mutle
Member
The +10% gains seem to be holding up well for now on the German exchanges, but as always with extremely low volume (22k traded on Xetra and only 2k in Frankfurt).
SebastianR
Active Member
Wow, what a night! Alright, I have to admit I bought my first option-type investment product ever last night before markets closed. Until yesterday, I was a straight-up buy&hold guy that never looked everywhere else. However, I felt that I really would like to be part of the run-up that will (at some point) need to happen for TSLA.
Boy, this was great and the leveraged stuff is really super addictive. I will need make sure to not get lost in the greed and furry of this going forward. Of course I was just dabbling a little, the money I invested was less than the average daily portfolio swings I would have on my purely stock based portfolio, it was probably .1% of what @TrendTrader007 would consider a medium trade but still - it is an amazing feeling...
Anyways: back to the topic. @jhm - I'm curious to hear what you think today. I don't think the call limited "crazy growth" or "1 trillion market cap" in future. I think it focused on immediate execution first. It is pretty clear to me that Model Y, Model 3 (internationally, not just the US), Semi + Roadster will need more production facilities. This means that Tesla will need to get creative. And I think they will. But I appreciated that they didn't cloud the great story that is currently unfolding with future aspirations: every time that happens, the shorts detract from the here and now, point to the future say "this is crazy" and you have another negative news cycle. Just one example: Q1 deliveries showed +100k Model S/X in 2017 which is huge and great in my mind. Nobody cared, because of the Model 3 ramp. At the same time, BMW was taking one victory lap after the other that they had sold 100k electrified (*not* electric) cars in 2017. I had many folks that were of the opinion that BMW was bigger in EVs than Tesla.
So I like this: just get it done properly ER call. There will be time to talk about future growth in Q1/Q2 next year.
Boy, this was great and the leveraged stuff is really super addictive. I will need make sure to not get lost in the greed and furry of this going forward. Of course I was just dabbling a little, the money I invested was less than the average daily portfolio swings I would have on my purely stock based portfolio, it was probably .1% of what @TrendTrader007 would consider a medium trade but still - it is an amazing feeling...
Anyways: back to the topic. @jhm - I'm curious to hear what you think today. I don't think the call limited "crazy growth" or "1 trillion market cap" in future. I think it focused on immediate execution first. It is pretty clear to me that Model Y, Model 3 (internationally, not just the US), Semi + Roadster will need more production facilities. This means that Tesla will need to get creative. And I think they will. But I appreciated that they didn't cloud the great story that is currently unfolding with future aspirations: every time that happens, the shorts detract from the here and now, point to the future say "this is crazy" and you have another negative news cycle. Just one example: Q1 deliveries showed +100k Model S/X in 2017 which is huge and great in my mind. Nobody cared, because of the Model 3 ramp. At the same time, BMW was taking one victory lap after the other that they had sold 100k electrified (*not* electric) cars in 2017. I had many folks that were of the opinion that BMW was bigger in EVs than Tesla.
So I like this: just get it done properly ER call. There will be time to talk about future growth in Q1/Q2 next year.
Stop reading CNBC..
Even if it does that, over time people will realize that the reported loss was irrelevant, and that all the other things statedon the call were very positive things. I expect a short attack, but there is too much good news now to keep the stock price down.
Agree with this. I know it's extremely difficult to project out many years into the future and try to work out the shape of the future. To me it sounded like the plan was for a more self-sustained method of growth for now and the next several quarters. I don't think $1tn is off the cards based on this earnings call either, I think they're just going to be taking a different path in the short-medium term. I personally think a lot of people will be surprised by the growth in Tesla energy, too. Elon sounded pretty confident about this in the mid-longer term and I think he's right to be.
And perhaps there will be various other product offshoots that we don't currently forsee. You also have to remember that, market cap aside, the stock doesn't always tend to trade rationally. I think there could be points where the stock shoots up in a seemingly irrational manner based on longer term future prospects, general excitement and its 'cult status'. It's a special stock.
First: Congrats to the longs. Enjoy the run, especially if you've been trading it.
Second: Quick question: Does Teslas current AP Hardware still base on the Drive PX 2 unit by NVIDIA or did that change to something newer with the upgraded Hardware a while ago? I'm trying to get an impression in what league that 200 vs 2000 frames per second thing puts Teslas AI Chip.
Second: Quick question: Does Teslas current AP Hardware still base on the Drive PX 2 unit by NVIDIA or did that change to something newer with the upgraded Hardware a while ago? I'm trying to get an impression in what league that 200 vs 2000 frames per second thing puts Teslas AI Chip.
AFAIK it's still the same. However that setup is quite flexible and customers can choose different configs. I think Tesla is not using the most powerful version due to heat, power and probably cost. The current mini-suoercomputer they built around it is already watercooler. If you look at some of the self driving competition they have prototypes running around with their boots stacked with HW. So it is a balance between cost, power, heat, space and performance. I am pretty sure Jim Keller cooked up something amazing.
Dan Detweiler
Active Member
Some early morning profit taking pre-market this morning? Stock down a touch it seems. Still a huge jump from yesterday at this time. Should be an action packed day of trading.
Dan
Dan
HG Wells
Martian Embassy
HEADLINE: Shortsville Times
Mayor quietly closes position before expected squeeze.
Mayor quietly closes position before expected squeeze.
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