I'm looking to sell Aug 280$ calls @30$. I know, I know, that's only 310$ for August. My thesis is that between NOW and then, we're going to retest the lows we saw last month. Probably sub 250$ again. This is going to be a kitchen sink quarter with higher than expected opex and lower than expected sales and revenues. From that point, I'm more than 50% certain we'll get back over 350$ in the next 9-12 months, probably hitting a new high. TESLA would love to get clear of the debt covenants they have for debt and warrants which means a target over ~360$ next fall.
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Dan Detweiler
Active Member
I get it and I am aware of the history. I still find the practice abhorrent. It involves purposely influencing the market through unethical practices, in my opinion. They can justify it any way they want. That's just how I see it.Keep in mind that Tesla has been heavily shorted for almost its entire existence, and the stock price has increased 10X since 2012 and more than 15X since the IPO. According to a recent article, only 4 stocks in the S&P 500 have had better returns since the IPO.
Tesla's nearly 2,000% gain from its IPO eight years ago shows power of disruption over profits
It is also well documented (have a look at jesselivenomore's thread or search through my posts in the tracking short interest thread) that shorts consistently tend to short more when the SP is low and cover when the SP is high (sell low, buy high!) which means that on average they are doing worse than just looking at the SP would reflect. A couple examples here:
Tracking short interest
Tracking short interest
The bottom line is that despite all their chest-pounding bravado, the great majority of shorts have been losing their shirts with their TSLA shorts.Whatever the explanation (stupidity, emotional investing, trying to bankrupt Tesla), shorting Tesla has literally been one of the worst investments you could possibly make, yet they keep at it, year after year.
Dan
OTOH it would greatly cut labour costs.
sundaymorning
Active Member
My understanding is that if you buy shares of the company during chapter 11, it’s basically worthless and losses all it’s value once it’s out of chapter 11. Happened to Kmart buyers.
GM was losing $5 billion per quarter during those years without a product the market could be excited about. They had a bloated union and lazy workers. Guess why Tesla’s not unionized?
GM wishes it could emulate just 1% of Tesla.
I think, it is impossible to analyse the impact of possible tariffs (Munster maybe talks about steel import tariffs to U.S.? I’m talking about possible Black Swan event between U.S. and E.U. Trump has been threatening with 20% tax for E.U. cars. That would cause retaliation from E.U.
sundaymorning
Active Member
The EU and Trump Aden now working on zero tariffs. Would benefit Tesla greatly if car tarrifs were dropped. Share price will increase.
Yeah, but did you hang-about on pro-GM forums trying your best to talk-down the company? Was there an army of you employed on Twitter by the oil companies to talk crap about Elon daily? Were new outlets publishing fake articles at critical moments each quarter?
Agreed, short-selling is pretty despicable actually, actively wanting a company to fail and borrowing stock to sell it in order to drive the price down and make that failure more likely.
Can anyone actually tell me a scenario on which this is OK?
jhm
Well-Known Member
At what price are you pro-Tesla? Just curious.
yeah, there are probably many caveats to this. Trump admin says one thing, while the EU says VEHICLE and parts tariffs are not on the table for the moment. At this point I'm believing the EU statements.
As well, Trump Admin seems to not want to talk about the CURRENT USA TARIFF of 25% on pickup truck and light duty/truck vehicle imports. That tariff dwarfs any of the other tariffs that they have even mentioned. Funny that.
That tariff will not go away, the north american us manufacturers make their bread and butter (and most of the margin) on these vehicles and letting europeans (new mercedes truck) and other international players the ability to export to usa without tariff would be highly deleterious to the USA manufacturers market.
Hogfighter
Professional Lurker
I agree with the kitchen sink quarter, but it sure seems that it’s baked into the SP already. I for one would be surprised if it dips much below where we are now.
That being said, it all depends on how the quarterly report is written. If there’s a lot of predictions on future production rates, as well as wordsmithing such as ‘each part of the line is capable of factory gating x amount of blah blah blah’, then the SP goes lower.
OTOH, if they say we’re at a sustained 3 production rate of 5,000/week RIGHT NOW, and fcf positive RIGHT NOW and will be for the foreseeable future, then watch out....it’ll take off.
Dan Detweiler
Active Member
Hey gang, on a lighter note, I have a little Tesla short humor for you that's particularly appropriate today.
Question:
What's a Tesla short's favorite Broadway show tune?
Answer:
The FUD'll come out, tomorrow!
Only "Annie" fans will get this I guess.
Ok, nevermind...carry on.
Dan
Question:
What's a Tesla short's favorite Broadway show tune?
Answer:
The FUD'll come out, tomorrow!
Only "Annie" fans will get this I guess.
Ok, nevermind...carry on.
Dan
I just got a call from risk management at my broker. They are calling those with high concentrations of TSLA to inform based on in house experts and options activity, they see a 37% move in the stock after earnings release tomorrow. If on the downside, that would create a call for my portfolio (37%!!!...no *sugar*) so they asked me to keep an eye and be ready to either sell some stock or make a deposit. Never had a call like that before in my 35 years of trading. Trying to stay rational (I am long) despite the unprecedented amount of FUD...this being the icing on the cake. Tomorrow will be huge either way....I certainly hope the market reacts to bad earning in a good way as it has acted in a bad way with positive earnings elsewhere as of late. Getting the popcorn out and the checkbook ready....it will take a lot more than I have seen to shake me out of my long position.
Why would longs try to prop up the stock? We're confident it will get there eventually. Perhaps some traders desperately want it to go up so they can sell an down again to buy, rinse and repeat ... but longs confidently hold.
Dan Detweiler
Active Member
Hmmm...
So my first thought is what information are they basing this recommendation on?
Dan
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