The Blue Owl
Endangerous Herbivore
Since you asked: you forget you have it for 10 years. Then you ask again.
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Since you asked: you forget you have it for 10 years. Then you ask again.
Tesla looks to be breaking out. I exited a fair number of short term positions at 242.50 and 238. I just reentered. Of course nothing is certain, but I'm long unless we show a breakdown.
Edit: Remember, trading isn't about being perfect. Its about playing probabilities against your perceived edge and risk tolerance. As always, not an advice.
Edit: Remember, trading isn't about being perfect. Its about playing probabilities against your perceived edge and risk tolerance. As always, not an advice.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
I assume he's referring to the usual FUDsters. I've seen them quoting the standard risk section as "proof" Tesla will fail.
Reciprocity
Active Member
Ahhh...
I should have picked that up. But the name has less interesting reason behind it. I´m from Iceland and I went to college in USA. Nobody could come close to say my name so people opted to ``Iceman`` for obvious reason. Now when I had to pick a name on a USA-dominated forum I just picked that old damn name your fellow countrymen gave me.
But srsly....... drop it on 353?
I guess you wont be calling me Goose then. I was really hoping to change my handle, but now I cant. Thanks!
I´ll call you Goose.... But I´m gonna have to ask you to prove you have mustache.
Reciprocity
Active Member
I have a full beard if that counts. I need to shave it thought because there is to much grey in it.
As far as your 353 question.. It was 353 earlier today. But what you probably need to worry about is that the Monthly Plug-In Sales Scorecard will be updated on or around the 2-3rd. Which is the end of next week. That is a place where I wouldn't want to be holding anything expiring on the 2nd in terms of calls, so you probably have some time between now and then to sell above that mark. It really just depends on your goals. The reason those numbers are interesting is that most dont know how to interpret them and they assume that low Jan and Feb numbers mean the world is collapsing when it really is just standard operation procedure for Tesla to have back load delivers at the end the quarter. This is because of how they manufacture cars for delivery to the farthest locations like China and Europe before the East Coast of the US then finally the West Coast. This causes very few deliveries in the US in Jan and Feb and a ton in March. This is repeated every quarter but not everyone knows that, so they see 900 model S and the freak out and forget that Tesla will do 4k-5k in march in the US. This is certainly not an advice, but the stock seems to have some momentum and only news (fake or real) or macro will derail it..
Thanks for your insight. I sadly can´t trade options for US securities. I live in Sweden and it´s just not offered here.
All I can do is buy and sell the stock. And I currently own 800. I wish I could do options on TSLA, I´d throw a few thousands dollars at it and see how I fare but sadly that service just isnt offered here.
The goal is the same as for all of us, maximize return.
All I can do is buy and sell the stock. And I currently own 800. I wish I could do options on TSLA, I´d throw a few thousands dollars at it and see how I fare but sadly that service just isnt offered here.
The goal is the same as for all of us, maximize return.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
davecolene0606
Member
davecolene0606
Member
I would keep. Too many good things will be happening this year. That’s just my opinion.
Also IMHO, TAs are looking good, on the daily, weekly and starting to look better on the monthly.
It might help to think about it with a simplified example. Say XYZ trades for $100 per share, and a $100 call is purchased for $1, a $100 put is purchased for $1, and both expire this week. Say the same market maker writes both contracts and collects the $100 premium from each, that no other options contracts are traded, and the contract buyers will exercise their options for the underlying shares if they're in-the-money.
The market maker in this example has a material interest in maintaining a price per share between $99 and $101 through the expiration of these options, with the greatest benefit coming at a share price of exactly $100 at expiration. Thus, max pain in this example is $100. The reason for this is the minimum number of options contracts will be in-the-money, so the market maker will be able to keep a maximum amount of the premium collected.
Like TSLA this week, say the price went up too far and with too much volume for the market maker to reasonably influence. Say the price per share moved to $105 nearing expiration. The market maker would need to purchase 100 shares of XYZ on the open market in order to have them to deliver to the contract buyer upon exercise of the option. After expiration, the contract buyer will owe $100 per share of XYZ to the market maker who had to spend $105 per share to acquire them. All other things being equal, adding to the buying interest of a security should increase the price per share of that security on the open market.
If you want specific numbers and expectation for TSLA, the website maximum-pain.com might be helpful for you. It shows the open interest, volume, and cash considerations for all strike prices, along with their calculation of the max pain point.
Because market makers tend to write more call options contracts than they buy, to satisfy their obligation to the call buyer they need to purchase the shares of the underlying stock in order to deliver them to the holder of the in-the-money contract, thus adding to the buying interest. Given all this information, and all else being constant, we should expect this activity to drive the stock price higher.
Keep in mind this is all coming from a complete and utter amateur.
Yeah, I´m still holding. OptionSniper just tweeted the same thing today; i.e. that TSLA breakout looks legit and technicals look strong on all charts.
He sees next resistance at 357.
The Risk Factors section within the 10-K of virtually every publicly traded company would make it appear that they will soon fail and are preparing for imminent bankruptcy.
355 has been historically troublesome, no? Seems to be the same right now.
Max Pain is 340, seems way off...
I don't recall you asking even once before, let alone a million times. But let me give you my understanding, maybe others will chime in.
(As I write this, 11:40PST, Max Pain | Maximum-Pain.com shows the following for TSLA:
If the price of TSLA at close in an hour or so is right of the yellow line, the green bar shows roughly what the call options will be worth to the longs holding them. The red bars are correspondingly what the put options will be worth to the holders.
By "holders" I mean the usual investors who buy calls or puts. But someone has to "write" the contracts. While there are people posting here who actually sell options contracts, most of them are written by "market makers", often big banks or hedge funds or whoever, but they have lots of money. The further away from the yellow line it is at close of market, the more money someone else makes, and therefore the less money the market maker makes. Bear in mind that they've usually already made their money from the declining time value of the options, so it isn't that they lose money, it's just that they make less. Still, they want to minimize how much they pay out on their side of the bets; the house (almost) always wins.
So it's in the MM's best interest to manipulate the stock price back towards the yellow line. Reading the graph above, it looks to me like they'll have to pay out about $8M if TSLA closes at $340. But it's currently $354.60 (as I type), that looks to me like about a $14M payout. So if they can sell less than $6M (= 14-8) worth of TSLA and force the price back to $340, they win. That's why volume is so important. On a low volume day they don't have to sell much to do that, but on a high volume day they might have to sell a lot, and even then it might not work. It looks to me like about 14:30EST they decided that even trying to hold the fort at $352.50 wasn't going to work, and they gave up.
Why, you might ask, do they try to stay close to a strike price? Options that are well away from that price are either worthless or worth a lot and a few cents swing in price doesn't matter much, but the people who have $355 puts ($254.88 as I type, pretend it closes at that price) can give their shares to the writer (market maker) in return for $355, but could have bought those shares for just 12 cents less. While there's little money involved, the difference between 12c/share and 24c/share is 100%! Ideal for the market maker is for it to close at exactly $355, in which case both the calls and the puts at that strike expire worthless.
Mod: This should really be in the options trading thread. --ggr
Runarbt
Active Member
Sure you can. I live in Norway, and got an account on schwab.com..
Rigth now I have 40x jan2019 600 calls.. Value jumping around like crazy though.. 43k to 13k to 24k.. Learning how to trade them now.
Huge earning potential, even if SP doesnt go past 600 by jan-2019.- Status
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