Toyota Mirai 2

[Curious George]

Figured I should start a new thread on this. We will see in few years where this goes.
Toyota is still betting big on fuel cell, though they brought a Lexus concept BEV based on sold state battery.
Here is their LA auto show presentation. Mirai begins at 19 mins.
For an engineer, Ms Birdsall seems very well spoken. Tesla should hire her for the next fuel cell pick up truck demo.

Some bits of info on new RAV4 plug in hybrid too in first part. Toyota wants to cut emission by 90% by 2050.

The first intro video.

 

[Cosmacelf]

How can such a large company be so clueless? Is hydrogen infrastructure better in Japan? It certainly is awful in California, let alone anywhere else in the US. You can't compare hydrogen to batteries as an example of a nascent vehicle technology growing well since the two are quite different. EVs have always been able to charge at home, and when Tesla started selling a sedan, they then built out a charge network rapidly. Hydrogen has neither of these things occurring.

 

[Curious George]

The fueling situation is not that bad in California as you say. The next round of stations are each going to be 3x-5x larger capacity.
What's great about FC is that it works for everyone.
As Birdsall says in the video, Toyota is working on expanding the fueling infrastructure. But there is strong H2 FUD and regulatory hurdles in many states that is partially preventing the progress. Japan with 100 stations must be better.
So is South Korea, where government is investing heavily in hydrogen stations.

Toyota has a point about electric cars though. With so many new models on the market now, the total market size is not growing, despite the generous incentives. Toyota's view is that electric car market is too overcrowded and it is difficult to make profit in it. It is also one of the easiest to build, imo. Without the government incentives, market is likely to stall or collapse. Case in point: China.
it doesn't look like a smart phone adoption curve, that succeeded on its own.

Also, even if Mirai or passenger cars fail, FC tech is much easier than battery power when it is applied to large vehicles, like semi, bus, and even large pick ups and delivery vans. Renault and others are already trying out plug-in fuel cell delivery vans to extend range by 3x with negligible extra weight & space. Hyundai, which is rather successful in electric cars, says FC is cheaper to build for bus/trucks once range is over 60 miles. And of course, there is the fast refueling advantage for it.

 

[RiverBrick]

An executive from Toyota Canada basically just said to forget about the Gen II. According to him, the Mirai will get interesting starting with Gen III.

Based on the interval between the first two generations, does this mean circa 2028? Imagine where Tesla will be by then.

 

[Kiwiadventure]

Why would you want to go back to having to use fuel stations again and pay more than charging at home. I don't see any advantages at all in hydrogen.

 

[Cosmacelf]

The fueling situation is not that bad in California as you say. The next round of stations are each going to be 3x-5x larger capacity.
What's great about FC is that it works for everyone.
As Birdsall says in the video, Toyota is working on expanding the fueling infrastructure. But there is strong H2 FUD and regulatory hurdles in many states that is partially preventing the progress. Japan with 100 stations must be better.
So is South Korea, where government is investing heavily in hydrogen stations.

Toyota has a point about electric cars though. With so many new models on the market now, the total market size is not growing, despite the generous incentives. Toyota's view is that electric car market is too overcrowded and it is difficult to make profit in it. It is also one of the easiest to build, imo. Without the government incentives, market is likely to stall or collapse. Case in point: China.
it doesn't look like a smart phone adoption curve, that succeeded on its own.

Also, even if Mirai or passenger cars fail, FC tech is much easier than battery power when it is applied to large vehicles, like semi, bus, and even large pick ups and delivery vans. Renault and others are already trying out plug-in fuel cell delivery vans to extend range by 3x with negligible extra weight & space. Hyundai, which is rather successful in electric cars, says FC is cheaper to build for bus/trucks once range is over 60 miles. And of course, there is the fast refueling advantage for it.

OK, those are points in favor for larger vehicles, but not for the Mirai.

The fueling situation in California IS bad. Read this post (scroll down the post for specific info about fueling): Review of Honda Clarity Fuel Cell Vehicle (plus planned switch to Tesla)

The bottom line is that Toyota wants a competitive advantage. For whatever reason, it doesn't think it can get one with batteries, so it will try with a different technology.

The problem is that FCs are battling both rapid battery advances and charging infrastructure build out. FCs have neither of these drivers.