gearchruncher
Well-Known Member
When did I say all cars would be Tesla?
One, by 2030 total vehicle sales are likely to be significantly lower than they are today for at least a couple of reasons:
So Tesla will sell 20M+ cars in 2030, but car sales will be way less than today (60M by your numbers). We're very close to Tesla being 75%+ of the market. That is very hard for me to believe. From 1.5% of cars in 2021 to 75% in 2030, and the real possibility that Lexus is gone by then?
All you argue is that nobody can catch Tesla, ever. How is the end game of that not 100% Teslas? History has never allowed a single car company to dominate in this way.
B) SOMEBODY is gonna have robotaxis working-- if not everywhere, at least in a lot of major cities. Thus reducing the need for car ownership significantly (certainly at least the need for 2nd or 3rd cars in a household).
Even more skeptical here that someone will have full L4+ robotaxis in 2030. I mean, we're so focused on Tesla being able to keep repeating their history. It's taken Tesla 5 years now to get to where 1/ are now (nowhere near L4+), so if they repeat that history, we'll still not have them. It seems that if we agree that Tesla may not be the leader/winner for autonomy by 2030, then maybe nobody will solve it in 8 years. It's also hard to see why we're so confident they will win the BEV unquestionably when autonomy could be solved by someone else.
Anyway, not sure 500k/80M (or 1M/60M) makes all that much difference. HUGE growth needs to happen across the industry to complete the conversion to BEV vs ICE, and history says this will happen across an industry, not via a company.