The M3 terrifies BMW

[Garlan Garner]

Elon was just stating his estimate of what the average Model 3 selling price would be. It is higher than the $35K base price because most car buyers, no matter what brand car they purchase, also buy various options.

Of course people will be able to buy a Model 3 for $35K, with no options, if that is their preference. He said so at the Model 3 launch, and stated that even with no options the Model 3 would be "a great car".

There has been a great deal of speculation as to whether or not the earliest Model 3 buyers would be able to buy a base car with no options or if Tesla would do what they did with the S and X and only sell heavily optioned cars first. At this point we don't know. My opinion is that, because Tesla and SpaceX employees with Model 3 reservations will be first in line to receive their cars, Tesla will sell any buyer a base Model 3 (no options) if that is their preference. Others disagree. We shall see.

I didn't think so many people would buy a base model MS 60, but they are. I'm really not sure why they are doing that.

 

[Garlan Garner]

By that do you mean "closer to a year before Tesla delivers a base Model 3"?

I am factoring in that, since Tesla and SpaceX employees were give the opportunity to make the first reservations, and since many of those employees may only be able to afford the $35K base version, Tesla will therefore be producing and delivering the base version once production commences. To make those employees who reserved and want the base version or something very close to it wait up to a year for their car after production starts seems unreasonable.

We know that with the S and the X, Tesla first offered only heavily optioned versions, primarily (I believe) because that resulted in more revenue, money which Tesla needed to expand operations. And those were cars that few of their employees could afford. Certainly Tesla still wants to maximize revenue and continue to expand, but with about 400,000 $1K deposits that's a lot of revenue right there. With the Model 3 Tesla has made a point of allowing their employees to make the first reservations. Those employees deserve to get their Model 3 early and configured the way they want.

I'm hoping that pickup location will be factored in.

I live in Chicago and I am picking up a fully option M≡ in Fremont at the factory. No shipping for Tesla. I called Tesla about this and they indicated that Once production starts that I should call Fremont and get assigned a reservation assistant/counselor and I will become a California delivery.

 

[Garlan Garner]

Well, when it comes to 'the majority of Americans', I think that they are most concerned with whether or not they can 'make the payments'. r.

That's what confused me so much in this forum when folks made what I called "knee jerked" decisions to buy a MS as their interim car until the m3 came out. They can just make a decision to buy a $62K car? That's a huge payment that if they saved up will be a nice down payment on the M3.

 

[gregd]

Other people have asked, it's my turn now. Why do you keep saying that people are "terrorized" or "terrified of" the BMW 330e, when it's obvious nobody is? I'm thinking projection.

I'm thinking we should stop feeding the troll...

 

[SmartElectric]

I didn't think so many people would buy a base model MS 60, but they are. I'm really not sure why they are doing that.

For some, the best option is to wait for the Model 3. However, while I was waiting I took a Tesla test drive in late 2014, which was an expensive test drive! From that moment on I was spending an hour a day scouring used Tesla's online, and it was only 6 months later that we bought a CPO S85 mid-2015. We cannot imagine having waited 3+ years to get into a Tesla.

There is nothing "base" about a car that goes as fast, drives as smoothly and has so much tech. The new 60 is a very compelling car, and I have (briefly) considered trading in our 85 for a new 60 due to all the improvements made since 2013.

We have a "classic S85", and LOVE IT, even if it originally came without all the new things added to the Model S since 2013.

We may even keep our S85 when our Model 3 arrives, I cannot imagine selling our Tesla, but maybe that's because we don't yet know how great the 3 will be in comparison to the S.

 

[dsvick]

Did we ever find a source that outright said highly optioned models will come first or was that always speculation based on past behavior?

Seems like my memory has failed me here:
Tesla Model 3 Debuts March 31st, Higher Options Cars Made First

There is also a mythical quote from, supposedly, sometime in April where he says, due to the number of reservations, they won't be doing the highly optioned ones first. I don't know of anyone who has ever seen it though and if it did exist, it might have since been deleted.

 

[dsvick]

I'm hoping that pickup location will be factored in.

I live in Chicago and I am picking up a fully option M≡ in Fremont at the factory. No shipping for Tesla. I called Tesla about this and they indicated that Once production starts that I should call Fremont and get assigned a reservation assistant/counselor and I will become a California delivery.

At best I see this saving you a few weeks. It might get your delivery moved up relative to everyone else who configures with you, but you will still configure based on date of reservation and the region your address is in since they wont know your pickup location until you configure.

 

[Garlan Garner]

At best I see this saving you a few weeks. It might get your delivery moved up relative to everyone else who configures with you, but you will still configure based on date of reservation and the region your address is in since they wont know your pickup location until you configure.

I'm going to follow instructions of Freemont. Freemont said that as soon as you see that configurations are being made......call.
That's what I'm going to do.

 

[Model 3]

However, while I was waiting I took a Tesla test drive in late 2014, which was an expensive test drive!

... and that is the reason I do not take the chance to testdrive a Model S before there will be Model 3's to test drive

There is also a mythical quote from, supposedly, sometime in April where he says, due to the number of reservations, they won't be doing the highly optioned ones first. I don't know of anyone who has ever seen it though and if it did exist, it might have since been deleted.

I also have heard the rumor, but not seen a credible source. But yes, the number of reservations and the accelerated ramp up may be a reason for Tesla to drop this, but until I see a credible source I rather let that be a pleasant surprise when the time come if it is true

 

[MassModel3]

I didn't think so many people would buy a base model MS 60, but they are. I'm really not sure why they are doing that.

My wife and I were discussing a new 60 just the other day in lieu of one of the Model 3 reservations we have down (when Tesla emailed out about new lease options). The compelling thing about the new 60 compared to our existing 60 is all the new features built into the base model, like the full tech package suite, supercharging, and active safety features. And by going with a 60, which we've already determined suits our needs, there's no real need to spend more on a larger battery. However, since a battery upgrade is available with the flip of a switch, same with autopilot, we'd always have the option to upgrade if we really wanted to.

In the end, we decided to wait for the 3 (the $7K down payment for the lease actually decided it for us), but a base 60 is a huge step up for most ICE drivers, and more battery then they'll need under normal circumstances -- especially with supercharging.

Back in the early Model S days, battery upgrades were near impossible to get, and there's posts about people paying $20K+ to upgrade from a 60 to an 85 after painful run-arounds with Tesla. Knowing there's an easy upgrade is nice by comparison.

 

[SpiceWare]

... and that is the reason I do not take the chance to testdrive a Model S before there will be Model 3's to test drive

Same here

 

[Mark C]

... and that is the reason I do not take the chance to testdrive a Model S before there will be Model 3's to test drive

I guess I'll have to admire your will power. I sat in a Tesla Model S once when I stopped in at a National Drive Electric event. I've never been in one that was moving under its own power, much less driven one.

The wife and I plan to drive one when we pass through the Atlanta area in November. I just can't resist. Wait, no that's not correct. I can hardly wait! That's more like it!

 

[MassModel3]

Be careful if you do decide to test drive an S or X. I'd never driven electric, so I just wanted myself and my wife to experience electric driving (to see if it lived up to all the hype). 10 days later we were buying a CPO.

Some things can't be helped.

 

[Red Sage]

Any bio-fuel that is grown on land that could have better use - like growing food or rain forest should be banned.

Well... Idunno about being banned exactly... Didn't they try that during Prohibition?

 

[Red Sage]

I'm still waiting for Mr. Fusion...

THIS.

 

[Red Sage]

I insist on having the time warp feature just so I can get in the car and sing "Let's do the time warp again!"

 

[Red Sage]

Whats's the point of the $42k average price? One will be able to buy a $35k Model 3.

I believe it was in reply/response to those who were saying it was premature to count the nearly 400,000 Reservations as 'money in the bank', thus referring to them as quantity times $35,000 equals such-n-such billions of buckadollars. I think Elon was saying that if you go by the projected ASP of $42,000 per car, the amount they had stated was actually rather conservative, even when you consider a certain percentage of Reservation holders might drop out and not complete the purchase.

 

[Red Sage]

There is no doubt that Tesla will sell you a base model from the get go. The only reason they did not do that with Model S+X is the Signatures editions, and there will - as everybody know - not be any Signatures Model 3.

The question is if they will delay the deliveries of this base model vs. the top-spec version, and if by how long. And since Elon has said they will prioritize deliveries based on what what options is selected - just as they did with the Model S and does now with the Model X, the only real question is how much longer you have to wait to get your base-model delivered vs a more optioned car. 1 week? 1 month? 3 months? More?

Setting a priority does not equate to a 'delay'. If I walk into a cafe alone and order scrambled eggs, toast, and coffee... I will not complain when a party of 12 receives some, or all, of their food before I get mine. If I am at the grocery store and pick the line where there is only one person instead of the line with eight... And it turns out that twelve people pass through the longer line before the one person I am behind manages to complete their purchase, I have no one to blame or complain to. It is a matter of perception. You pays your money, you takes your chances.

 

[Red Sage]

I think delivery based on region then first-come-first-served basis sounds fair. Sending you up the queue based on your selected options is elitist IMO, which makes sense for Model S/X/Roadster but not so much for the mass market 3.

I think it will be based upon more the effective ease of manufacturing due to availability of materials than for the dollar value of the vehicle as a whole -- so not elitist so much as prioritized for immediate assembly. If 16 cars before yours, and 18 cars after yours all want a tan interior, and you chose black, your car may be grouped to be assembled with other cars with a black interior. If you ordered the base car, with no options except for staggered wheels with Performance tires, your car might be built ahead of someone else's -- whose car was fully loaded, except for declining staggered wheels with Performance tires.

 

[Red Sage]

Even if the gross margin is expected to be 25% for the Model 3?

Years ago, Elon Musk stated he expected that something between 10% and 15% would be a good margin target for Generation III vehicles. He may have noted at the time that Lexus has a 14% margin overall. I typically guess that the margin will be around 12% for the base Tesla Model ☰ car, and maybe up to 22% for a fully loaded version.