Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

The demise of the OEMs

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.

dKUClac.gif
 
  • Like
Reactions: Krugerrand
It was Chinese New Year a year ago as well.
Alex's tweet is dumb. LNY was in January last year. BYD global sales fell 6% in Jan+Feb, the only valid time frame. BEVs were down 1% and PHEVs down 10%, for those who care about the split (not me).

BYD's Jan+Feb export sales grew from 25.4k in 2023 to 59.5k this year, which means their China passenger NEV YTD sales declined 17%, from 316k to 263k. That's definitely a cause for concern.
 
  • Like
Reactions: petit_bateau
A day late, I did post a pointer to that story and a copy if you get hit by a paywall at Prediction, in Which Year Will New Electric Vehicle Sales Exceed 50% in the United States "Poll".

The story does at the top say:
"N.A. CEO Ted Ogawa says EVs will be 30% of the U.S. market in 2030, so Toyota will follow consumer demand and buy credits to make up any EPA shortfall."

We'll see in 2030 how right/wrong he is. Since my vote in the other thread is after 2040, I wouldn't be surprised if we're within 5% of his prediction for 2030. It might actually be too high.
 
Europe is already at and China surpassed that percentage.

Basing your strategy on the worst performing market in regards to EV adoption doesn’t make sense to me.
I can't comment on those numbers but China obviously has plenty of government support/pushes and other reasons. Europe has crazy high gasoline prices and I guess more serious governments/fewer parties to push back.

The CEO per the article is the CEO of Toyota North America. Per A Record 1.2 Million EVs Were Sold in the U.S. in 2023, According to Estimates from Kelley Blue Book - Cox Automotive Inc., EV share of new vehicle sales in the US was only 7.6% for 2023.

I'd say their strategy for the US market more/less makes sense.

Hope you realize how low the BEV penetration rate is for Japan: Who can catch Tesla ? They seem to be experiencing exponential growth…... As I've posted probably here and definitely elsewhere, given that the upper management and many employees of Japanese automakers are in Japan, their decisions are likely colored by what they see there. There have been thousands of CHAdeMO chargers there for years in a country ~89% the size of California yet EV adoption is very low.
 
Last edited:
The CEO per the article is the CEO of Toyota North America. Per A Record 1.2 Million EVs Were Sold in the U.S. in 2023, According to Estimates from Kelley Blue Book - Cox Automotive Inc., EV share of new vehicle sales in the US was only 7.6% for 2023.
7.6% x 4 =29.8% (ok _not_ 30%) 1.2 million x 4 = 4.8 million

my vote was 2027, perhaps a bit optimistic, but 2027 goes thru December 31, 2027

I enjoy looking at Tony Seba's 2 pictures of the ?Easter? day parade in New York City, 13 years apart and the uptake of ICE vs horses,
1709470255460.png

horses 1900
1709470351016.png

cars 1913

the graphs of the increasing rapidity of uptake of new technology from elsewhere. I suspect we all will be surprised
(?Tesla has been selling cars (and lots of other stuff) for what ? 12 or so years? growing how fast?)

(My first PV array was 1.1kw in 1999, my second PV array is 11.655kw 2018 and makes 140% of my needs, Tesla included and ((sometimes) heated swimming pool)), my third will be at least 18kw, islanding capable, joined to a VPP in around 25 years from 1999. a simple example truth.
technology gets better, faster)
Wrights Law anyone?
(I wish Renewable energy and EV's were included in the chart)

1709467843819.png


 
Last edited:

Clueless.

Anyone spouting off about Tesla "launching a price war to kill off their competition" doesn't know the first thing about Tesla. It's right there in their Mission Statement and Master Plans. The fact that they're lowering cost of manufacturing to lower the cost to the consumer is all about the Mission, not about the competition.


Tesla's literally trying to drag the rest of the industry along with them by opening patents, giving away manuals on how to switch to 48V architecture, etc. They've also not been secretive about gigacastings, vertical integration, etc. If the "competition" can't keep up, that's on them failing to get on board with Tesla in spite of Tesla showing them how.