Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[TSLA_Hopeful]

Tesla eliminated all inventory discounts. Finally, apparently Elon is back in charge.

 

[Musskiah]

I don't think a regular Tesla car owner would be the ones to set their cars to be part of the RT service. The math doesn't work I don't think. It'll be all Tesla due to lower costs/maintenance/repair/parts shortages/certified shops/lack of care/concern for the vehicle/dealings with cleaning/maintenance/you name it.

Aside from that, do you/anyone thinks Uber/Lyft will take this lying down and let Tesla wipe out their companies completely by offering half the cost of an Uber? If someone needed a taxi, they would probably gravitate towards the lowest cost option of course and why Taxi's are in such a bad shape. This could be a Tesla RT, but I personally don't think it'll be as profitable as folks make it out to be (just random thinking, no facts here).

One thing with cars vs. trains/rail is that traffic messes up all that. Rail can be faster, especially in some markets where there is heavy traffic. You have some silly protestors blocking roads and you aren't getting to where you want to. This is a problem with driving too of course, but outside of how cool a RT service will/can be, how profitable is it really going to be and how much cash flow is it going to generate with all the maintenance? I understand software margins for folks who buy FSD if it works and one can sleep in the back seat, but I think the profits are limited for Tesla on a RT service which won't have the margins of simply selling software.

I don't drive enough to consider paying for any of this so I'm probably biased. Curious as well, how many of people's wives/females are hardcore looking forward to using FSD? I've mentioned before my partner has no interest in self driving or even basic auto-pilot stuff. Seems to be more of a boy and their toys thing.

My SO loves it. I think it does take a unique lady (no offense to anyone), whereas many-a-guy likes it.

 

[Musskiah]

new job listings being purged. I'm sure there will be new ones in near future, but existing ones are no longer available. This is far more than just removing the bottom performers. Seems more like a total reset.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1780303329370816755

June 2022 Elon cut 10% of the workforce and simultaneously implemented a hiring freeze. He was concerned then that the economy was going to turn into recession. Welp...

 

[Musskiah]

Tesla eliminated all inventory discounts. Finally, apparently Elon is back in charge.

It is a smart move to buy down automotive loan interest rates on inventory cars instead. They must do something differently in this rate environment as Powell is going to remain persistent in holding rates.

 

[MD70]

Tesla eliminated all inventory discounts. Finally, apparently Elon is back in charge.

He has always been in charge and will have signed off on the price cuts and inventory discounts.

 

[MD70]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1780314205079347353

This article confirms my view that going all in on the cyberattack and the 4680 lead is to todays situation.

“With everything going well, Musk tackled his own pet peeve, "boredom," by launching the all-stainless steel-bodied pickup, the Cybertruck.

According to the "Biography of Musk," when the Cybertruck was finalized, some Tesla executives questioned the futuristic design choice for a pickup. Musk dismissed concerns about market acceptance, stating he "did not want to make a traditional, boring pickup that could be made anytime."

The Cybertruck marked the beginning of a disaster for Tesla”

This is what happens when someone’s been so successful previously they can’t accept what they want to do might not be the best for a company going forward.

 

[2daMoon]

Jordan explores The Limiting Factor regarding the Robotaxi production options, painted steel, stainless steel, and plastic.

 

[Musskiah]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1780314205079347353

This article confirms my view that going all in on the cyberattack and the 4680 lead is to todays situation.

“With everything going well, Musk tackled his own pet peeve, "boredom," by launching the all-stainless steel-bodied pickup, the Cybertruck.

According to the "Biography of Musk," when the Cybertruck was finalized, some Tesla executives questioned the futuristic design choice for a pickup. Musk dismissed concerns about market acceptance, stating he "did not want to make a traditional, boring pickup that could be made anytime."

The Cybertruck marked the beginning of a disaster for Tesla”

This is what happens when someone’s been so successful previously they can’t accept what they want to do might not be the best for a company going forward.

From that X post, this is at the heart of the FUD and short campaign Tesla finds itself in. Even if 4680 and Cybertruck production is behind schedule, there is a far more ominous concern...

"In 2022, Musk raised $46.5 billion to acquire Twitter, a significant portion of which was obtained through pledging his own stocks. According to Tesla's filings, by the end of March 2023, Musk had pledged 58% of his stocks, totaling 238 million shares worth over $40 billion.During the six months Musk pushed for the Twitter deal, Tesla's stock price peaked at $384 and dropped to as low as $198 — about 22% higher than it is now. If Tesla's stock price continues to plummet, and Musk is unable to make additional payments to the lending institutions, his pledged stocks might be forcibly sold, potentially causing a vicious cycle. "Any such sales could further depress our stock price," stated Tesla's annual report."

Wall Street may finally have him trapped in his collateralized loans for Twitter backed by TSLA shares. If this is true, this may help explain the rapid shift in strategy. It truly is a bet-the-company moment.

 

[Linkmeup]

all job postings removed.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1780303329370816755

https://twitter.com/x/status/1780303921853935648

Maybe some nuance?

 

[Musskiah]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1780303921853935648

Maybe some nuance?

It's likely these will be removed. I would believe Tesla's website over X

 

[Zero CO2]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1780297314000871518

barry Glack should be happy

 

[CitizenKane]

From that X post, this is at the heart of the FUD and short campaign Tesla finds itself in.

"In 2022, Musk raised $46.5 billion to acquire Twitter, a significant portion of which was obtained through pledging his own stocks. According to Tesla's filings, by the end of March 2023, Musk had pledged 58% of his stocks, totaling 238 million shares worth over $40 billion.During the six months Musk pushed for the Twitter deal, Tesla's stock price peaked at $384 and dropped to as low as $198 — about 22% higher than it is now. If Tesla's stock price continues to plummet, and Musk is unable to make additional payments to the lending institutions, his pledged stocks might be forcibly sold, potentially causing a vicious cycle. "Any such sales could further depress our stock price," stated Tesla's annual report."

Wall Street may finally have him trapped. This explains the rapid shift in strategy. It truly is a bet-the-company moment.

Sorry, what? It's "Wall Street's" fault if Musk has gambled his Tesla stock to buy a company which he bought at a material premium without caring about whether it was profitable, with a very unclear strategy and where he told major advertisers to f*** off? How?

 

[Linkmeup]

Elon Musk may announce Tesla's entry in India after meet with PM Modi: Report

Elon Musk likely to announce Tesla's entry into Indian markets after meeting PM Modi. The announcement won't be site-specific, requiring board approval. Musk confirmed his visit and lobbying for reduced import taxes on EVs.

www.livemint.com

"“Expect a general announcement that the US-based EV (electric vehicle) maker is coming into India not a site-specific one. To announce a specific site Tesla typically needs board approval, which may happen only later," the official told MoneyControl.

"For now, Musk may welcome the EV policy and say that he looks forward to being in Indian market soon," the official added."

Also:

"Meanwhile, the licence application of Musk's satellite venture Starlink is under process, and the government is examining the security aspects, news agency PTI reported citing sources.

The FDI and financial aspects are in sync with the requirements and conditions, the report said, adding that the ownership 'declaration' has also been received from Starlink."

I posted this on a SpaceX thread from another article:

Elon Musk India Visit: Tesla boss to meet Indian space startups - What we know so far

It is highly possible that Tesla's CEO, Elon Musk, will soon meet with Indian space companies, as some space startup companies have stated that they have received requests directly from the Indian government., News News, ET Now

www.etnownews.com

Which startup companies are expected to meet Elon Musk?​

As per a Bloomberg report, startups including Skyroot Aerospace, Agnikul Cosmos, Bellatrix Aerospace and Dhruva Space said that they have received requests from the government to save the date for a meeting with

Musk. The meeting is expected to be held in New Delhi on April 22.

Furthermore, Musk's visit to India, expected to last around 48 hours, provides insight into his schedule.

 

[Zero CO2]

5 years ago, anyone who said FSD was 5 years away was laughed at for their pessimism, sometimes they even got temporary bans. I said at the time (and you can find the posts) that it would be 10 years - I think I got about 230 downvotes for that. And yet here we are.

Tesla is absolutely not worth zero without FSD, that's just typical Musk hyperbole. The company is profitable, still growing (1 quarter a trend does not make) and there's a freaking huge market out there to be had.

The whole economics of "robo-taxi" really needs to be looked at. Who does he think is going to own and profit from robotaxis. This notion that both owners as well as the company and shareholders will profit from this has never made sense to me. It's double counting the potential income - everyone will want a Tesla which will be an appreciating asset and make money. Sure... something about that sounds like a perpetual motion engine, or a ponzi scheme.

I sold in Oct '22 @$350 and have never looked back (I bought in Jan 2019 and Jan 2020) It was never going to stay a $1t company, let alone $3t or $10t some here said would happen "within 10 years" but it could still be a great car company.

so you just dropped by to whine brag... i thought you would be busy on your yacht from your $350/share gains

 

[MD70]

From that X post, this is at the heart of the FUD and short campaign Tesla finds itself in. Even if 4680 and Cybertruck production is behind schedule, there is a far more ominous concern...

"In 2022, Musk raised $46.5 billion to acquire Twitter, a significant portion of which was obtained through pledging his own stocks. According to Tesla's filings, by the end of March 2023, Musk had pledged 58% of his stocks, totaling 238 million shares worth over $40 billion.During the six months Musk pushed for the Twitter deal, Tesla's stock price peaked at $384 and dropped to as low as $198 — about 22% higher than it is now. If Tesla's stock price continues to plummet, and Musk is unable to make additional payments to the lending institutions, his pledged stocks might be forcibly sold, potentially causing a vicious cycle. "Any such sales could further depress our stock price," stated Tesla's annual report."

Wall Street may finally have him trapped in his collateralized loans for Twitter backed by TSLA shares. If this is true, this may help explain the rapid shift in strategy. It truly is a bet-the-company moment.

I don’t think he is even thinking that far ahead. When he has an idea it’s very difficult to dissuade him.

 

[Musskiah]

Sorry, what? It's "Wall Street's" fault if Musk has gambled his Tesla stock to buy a company which he bought at a material premium without caring about whether it was profitable, with a very unclear strategy and where he told major advertisers to f*** off? How?

I'm not assigning fault away from Elon; I agree is was clearly a gamble. They are absolutely taking advantage of his potential miscalculation.

 

[jschwefel]

View attachment 1039022

In 2024, weeks 14 and 15 (first 2 weeks of April) are quite similar to weeks 1 and 2 - Q2 is tracking within 9% of Q1 registrations for the first 2 weeks combined. The cumulative registrations (LR line graph) 2023 vs 2024 cumulative registrations are tracking -9%, which is less than 1k registrations. As we saw in my previous post, WuWa shared in Southport Shanghai, there was an enormous number (at least 10k) of Teslas awaiting export.

Some of these are undoubtedly headed to Chile, the third largest car market in S. America that Tesla just entered into. The EV Market in Chile is projected to reach a revenue of US$149.2m in 2024 with a 4 year 17% CAGR. Just because there are less registrations in China does not mean that inventories in China are rising. In fact, there is the lowest inventory of all in China precisely because they can divert any excess inventory easily to exports. If we investigate Tesla inventories, we will find China is an order of magnitude less than the US and several times less than Europe. This has benn true for years and remained consistent in the most recent quarters. In light of inventories remaining very small, Q2 registration data that closely tracks Q1 in China is not concerning.

SOURCE: Electric Vehicles - Chile | Statista Market Forecast.

Thank you for the reply. Personally I’d like to see China sales growing, but at least Tesla is managing inventory using exports.

What are we to make of the situation in the US (i.e. high inventory and stagnant/lower sales)? I’d hate to think where we’d be if it weren’t for the $7500 point of sale tax credit. I thought for sure that would be a tailwind to sales in 2024. Boy was I wrong!

 

[Musskiah]

Thank you for the reply. Personally I’d like to see China sales growing, but at least Tesla is managing inventory using exports.

What are we to make of the situation in the US (i.e. high inventory and stagnant/lower sales)? I’d hate to think where we’d be if it weren’t for the $7500 point of sale tax credit. I thought for sure that would be a tailwind to sales in 2024. Boy was I wrong!

Thank you for your original post. It's important to bring these things into question.

I couldn't agree with you more in this response. We would be in a heap of trouble without the tax credit, there is no doubt.

 

[CitizenKane]

I'm not assigning fault. They are absolutely taking advantage of his potential miscalculation.

Who are "they"? Musk's lenders? Or short sellers who hope to trigger forced sales?

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1780311790737596736