Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Singuy]

Feature complete can mean a lot of different things. For instance, I doubt that FSD will know how to pick up robotaxi passengers in a few months. I even doubt it will be able to pull into my driveway and back into the garage. And it definitely won't know which side to park on for access to my charger.

I think by feature complete, Elon just means that all the features promised on the order page will basically "be there". That's certainly possible in a few months.

Reverse is the only thing needed as "autosteer on city streets" is not exactly a high bar.

 

[NicoV]

Tomorrow there are 7 consecutive hours of zero or negative electricity prices (energy component) in Belgium. We’re only March yet. Some time people will start noticing that EV’s may be cheap to charge and will want to have one.

8+ hours of zero or negative prices tomorrow (Sunday) in Belgium, The Netherlands, Germany, France, Switzerland, Austria, UK.
I don’t think I’ve ever seen such a widespread and long zero price event.
This is becoming a bigger and bigger opportunity for batteries and EV’s.

 

[GhostSkater]

because eventually the saudi government will get tired of subsidizing high income American truck buyers and rivian will collapse

What? Agree with the rest, but you are mixing Lucid and Rivian, which takes weight away from everything else you said although it’s correct

Volume only matters if you make money

 

[Krugerrand]

We've heard variations of "a few months" going on, what, seven years now? Yawn.

We have and I wish for you to continue to yawn and spread the word it’ll be years. Tell all your friends. The more people who believe as you do, the better. Shout it from the roof tops, then your work here will be done.

 

[GOVA]

I like Tesla Elon
I like SpaceX elon
I like Neuralink Elon
Heck, I even like hyperloop Elon

I just deleted X — my goodness what a cesspool that has become since Elon took over.

Funny indeed. I actually caved in and subscribed.

 

[DarkandStormy]

We have and I wish for you to continue to yawn and spread the word it’ll be years. Tell all your friends. The more people who believe as you do, the better. Shout it from the roof tops, then your work here will be done.

This is a very strange response to pointing out Elon has given this exact timeline on FSD many times before.

Cheers.

 

[mongo]

Feature complete can mean a lot of different things. For instance, I doubt that FSD will know how to pick up robotaxi passengers in a few months. I even doubt it will be able to pull into my driveway and back into the garage. And it definitely won't know which side to park on for access to my charger.

I think by feature complete, Elon just means that all the features promised on the order page will basically "be there". That's certainly possible in a few months.

Elon on 2019 Q4 call:

Well, I mean, to be precise, I said I was hoping it would be feature-complete with both FSD by the end of last year. We got pretty close. It's looking like we might be feature-complete in a few months. The feature-complete just means like it has some chance of going from your home to work let's say with no interventions. So, that's -- it doesn't mean the features are working well, but it means it has above zero chance. So I think that's looking like maybe it's going to be couple of months from now. And what isn't obvious regarding Autopilot and Full Self-Driving is just how much work has been going into improving the foundational elements of autonomy. The -- like the core autopilots in Tesla or Autopilot software and AI team is just is I think very, very strong in making great progress. And we're only beginning to take full advantage of the Autopilot hardware and the FSD hardware.Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Q4 2019 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Fool

 

[SOULPEDL]

Elon on 2019 Q4 call:

Well, I mean, to be precise, I said I was hoping it would be feature-complete with both FSD by the end of last year. We got pretty close. It's looking like we might be feature-complete in a few months. The feature-complete just means like it has some chance of going from your home to work let's say with no interventions. So, that's -- it doesn't mean the features are working well, but it means it has above zero chance. So I think that's looking like maybe it's going to be couple of months from now. And what isn't obvious regarding Autopilot and Full Self-Driving is just how much work has been going into improving the foundational elements of autonomy. The -- like the core autopilots in Tesla or Autopilot software and AI team is just is I think very, very strong in making great progress. And we're only beginning to take full advantage of the Autopilot hardware and the FSD hardware.

Per Elon, FSD is complete. So clearly the bar has been raised much higher than his comments from 2019 would suggest. He appears to be back-peddling in that quote as there were plenty of hints he was highly speculating with his word choices - "some chance", "doesn't mean", "above zero chance", "maybe"...

Today, IMO, feature complete means that it could be used as a robotaxi, assuming the proper system and safeguards were added on. That's what "a few months out" means now. (Except parking may still be a problem in the future, and it will always be until everyone is autonomous!)

I do wonder if we'll be able to teach it to park special in our garage with one-button learning, and as simple as a memory preset on the radio. It's just another path to calculate, but that may need a front camera or sonar. I don't think this is required though (Edit: for FSD complete) but do believe it's possible.

 

[Musskiah]

Well, there may not be an automated production line, but there is one as outlined in the recent video. It's largely manual and not very long, but there are a handful of stations the semi goes through to be completed. It's not all hand built in one location.

Can we assume the first Tesla Teracasting for Semi 2.0 frame around 2030?

 

[SOULPEDL]

8+ hours of zero or negative prices tomorrow (Sunday) in Belgium, The Netherlands, Germany, France, Switzerland, Austria, UK.
I don’t think I’ve ever seen such a widespread and long zero price event.
This is becoming a bigger and bigger opportunity for batteries and EV’s.

This seems like a battery Megapack farming opportunity, no? Paid both while charging and discharging?
(Edit: Which is essential what you're saying.)

OK wait... so why is this happening? Is it something new or climate related, or consumer demand dropped???

More edits... Oh... Maybe it's too much solar/wind installed without storage to match?

 

[Krugerrand]

This is a very strange response to pointing out Elon has given this exact timeline on FSD many times before.

Cheers.

I literally just agreed with you and encouraged you to spread the word. Simply ignore any sarcasm that may have seeped out. I have no control over that. I blame my parents.

I truly want you to believe he’s wrong on timing again. I want virtually everyone to believe he’s wrong on timing again.

To be clear I have no opinion on his prediction this time anymore than I had an opinion the first 83 times. My position is that it’ll happen when it happens, and thusly have no interest in debating, let alone expending energy, talking/worrying/predicting the timing.

But here’s the kicker, the punchline if you will - eventually he’ll be right. On that day, I will take the greatest pleasure in the history of my life watching the subsequent causalities.

 

[Usain]

I do wonder if we'll be able to teach it to park special in our garage with one-button learning, and as simple as a memory preset on the radio. It's just another path to calculate, but that may need a front camera or sonar. I don't think this is required though but do believe it's possible.

One solution might be to have some sort of target that the car can key on.

For instance, if you have a Tesla wireless charging pad it would be relatively simple to teach it to park perfectly over the pad.

If you don't have such a pad, maybe you give it some other sort of standard target where you want it to park. The target could be on the back wall or on the floor.

 

[cliff harris]

What? Agree with the rest, but you are mixing Lucid and Rivian, which takes weight away from everything else you said although it’s correct

Volume only matters if you make money

Sorry, my wording was a train wreck. I do know which is which . My best guess is Lucid collapses, and Rivian gets bought, but certainly nether of them is a threat to Tesla .

 

[NicoV]

This seems like a battery Megapack farming opportunity, no? Paid both while charging and discharging?
(Edit: Which is essential what you're saying.)

OK wait... so why is this happening? Is it something new or climate related, or consumer demand dropped???

More edits... Oh... Maybe it's too much solar/wind installed without storage to match?

1) Lower demand because of weekend.
2) A fortunate combination of a lot of wind at the same time of solar beginning to produce a meaningful amount of power (still early in the year).
3) Not enough storage, and not enough demand shifting.
4) Lot’s of classic power generation that can’t be switched off (mainly nuclear in Belgium and France)
5) Not enough interconnection to other parts of Europe. There is a lot of interconnection, but not enough for this situation.

See the graph below showing for the next few days the expected demand (highest line) and wind and sun estimated production (lower 2 lines) in Belgium:

Chart — Elia Open Data Portal

opendata.elia.be

 

[SOULPEDL]

One solution might be to have some sort of target that the car can key on.

For instance, if you have a Tesla charging pad it would be relatively simple to teach it to park perfectly over the pad.

If you don't have such a pad, maybe you give it some other sort of standard target where you want it to park. The target could be on the back wall or on the floor.

(OT if we drill too much into this), I'm not worried about it finding that perfect spot in the garage. I've seen how it can fold mirrors and squeeze through traffic that I wouldn't even try. And I have proof it's currently better than I am at not hitting curbs. So I don't think you'd need a reference other than the average stuff in a garage and a clear path.

Fun fact, FSD has never hit a single curb for me... ever! I find that amazing because I've scraped my wheels about 5 times total by now. This is a fairly precise system as far as I can tell.

 

[2daMoon]

For any who have people around them fretting over the horrors yet to unfold as a result of the intense amount of mining necessary for those planet-killing EV batteries, here's a counterpoint presented by Lars.

One spoiler, of all the metals being mined on Earth, those used for batteries make up a whopping... 0.0004% of the total metal mining activity.

 

[SOULPEDL]

1) Lower demand because of weekend.
2) A fortunate combination of a lot of wind at the same time of solar beginning to produce a meaningful amount of power (still early in the year).
3) Not enough storage, and not enough demand shifting.
4) Lot’s of classic power generation that can’t be switched off (mainly nuclear in Belgium and France)
5) Not enough interconnection to other parts of Europe. There is a lot of interconnection, but not enough for this situation.

See the graph below showing for the next few days the expected demand (highest line) and wind and sun estimated production (lower 2 lines) in Belgium:

Chart — Elia Open Data Portal

opendata.elia.be

That's an odd chart, all the lines are the same color. But I believe you, and it makes sense. I find it odd that nuclear can't be shutdown - it runs a steam turbine, so just vent the steam, no? And solar is fine, just unplug it. So it seems like power management in general is lacking on the larger scale. What an opportunity for Tesla, like you say!

 

[EQC_]

One solution might be to have some sort of target that the car can key on.

For instance, if you have a Tesla wireless charging pad it would be relatively simple to teach it to park perfectly over the pad.

If you don't have such a pad, maybe you give it some other sort of standard target where you want it to park. The target could be on the back wall or on the floor.

Memories from my youth...a tennis ball hanging by a string from the garage ceiling. Stop when the ball is touching the windshield, preferably centered.

This geometry wouldn't work for FSD...but you reminded me of this mildly sexist device, installed by husbands to guide their wife's parking.

 

[aubreymcfato]

8+ hours of zero or negative prices tomorrow (Sunday) in Belgium, The Netherlands, Germany, France, Switzerland, Austria, UK.
I don’t think I’ve ever seen such a widespread and long zero price event.
This is becoming a bigger and bigger opportunity for batteries and EV’s.

do you have a source we can use and share?

 

[Skryll]

8+ hours of zero or negative prices tomorrow (Sunday) in Belgium, The Netherlands, Germany, France, Switzerland, Austria, UK.
I don’t think I’ve ever seen such a widespread and long zero price event.
This is becoming a bigger and bigger opportunity for batteries and EV’s.

And yet consumers electricity prices at least as far as I know in Germany are high.

Here in California they jacked up electricity prices for off peak from 17 cents to 36 cents over the last 5 years with further raises already on the road map.

That's one way to make sure consumers don't benefit from doing the right thing.