Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Thekiwi]

Since it is the weekend...does anyone feel there is a "reasonable" chance Tesla will defer GigaMexico for other locations? I know there is the whole U.S. credits situation, but given the rest of the world's appetite for smaller cars, I can't help but wonder if Shanghai might not be a better choice. We sure as heck know they can build a plant in record time...

Might depend on what the result is on November 5th.

 

[Tony73]

Since it is the weekend...does anyone feel there is a "reasonable" chance Tesla will defer GigaMexico for other locations? I know there is the whole U.S. credits situation, but given the rest of the world's appetite for smaller cars, I can't help but wonder if Shanghai might not be a better choice. We sure as heck know they can build a plant in record time...

I suspect Tesla will build out gen3 capacity in gigaMexico, Shanghai and Germany at the same time.
If Tesla could build GigaTx and GigaBerlin from scratch almost simultaneously, they can ramp gen3 in 3 or more factories at the simultaneously.

 

[NicoV]

Something tells me very small % use Ubiquiti/Unifi especially at home.

As family with kids, WiFi everywhere in house is a mission critical thing. The complaints about bad WiFi stopped completely after I switched to Ubiquiti (after trying various other hardware). Since I’m the one responsible at home for making sure the WiFi is good, I consider it well spent money.

 

[Thekiwi]

Law of big numbers is what changed. Eventually you couldn't even grow items given out for free given by Jesus himself. Tesla sell more than BMW and Mercedes total units with only 2 car models. This is unprecedented and you cannot expect them to get to toyota numbers at 2x the asp.

Can you flesh out this theory some more?

 

[Tony73]

TSLA might see a small bump if starship makes it to orbit this week.

 

[Musskiah]

Out with the old, in with the new. Former coal plant will transform into clean energy hub thanks to Tesla technology: 'Signals an incredibly positive investment'

 

[Musskiah]

First India, then Italy, now Thailand...

Thailand challenges Italy and India for Tesla's next Gigafactory

Meeting between Tesla and the Thai Prime Minister with a view to building an electric car and battery factory in the country.

uk.motor1.com

 

[Snerruc]

What did you disagree with that I said. From time to time over the years I have posted regarding my own experiences, some positive, some not so. In my most recent post I was postulating ( without direct knowledge) that stacks might vary depending on camera type and position, FSD chip version and other factors.

I made no comment at all about version effectiveness. If I had I could not directly comment on FSD 12 versions since I have my most recent experience with versions of FSD 11, which have quite distinct flaws for both Model S Plaid and Model Y LR the only two I have recently driven.

So, what did I say incorrectly? I’m asking only for clarification, not disputing that I might have been in error. After all, I admit to imperfection…not least a tremendous facility for typo insertion!

Probably my bad. I understood you to write that car to car variation of cars of the same type such as S’s in the behavior of FSD wasn’t a problem. Sorry.

 

[dhanson865]

When an article claims info about 2024, but says “Updated December 29, 2022”, then that would be enough for me to distrust its content and to start looking further for information.

if you are looking for absolute accuracy I agree. but the thing I found useful about it was relative ranking.

So many people here have come back with the "my insurance is cheaper" reply without trying the actual exercise I did following that.

I went and got actual quotes from multiple insurance companies and found the ranking between the Leaf and the Model 3 to be accurate.

All the quotes I got today were in the order of 25% to 50% higher insurance cost for the Model 3 vs the Nisan Leaf SV (both being 2020 model year).

So even in that article is outdated and inaccurate on what the rates are. I do think it was valid first order approximation of how expensive Tesla insurance is vs cheaper EVs and vs gas vehicles.

 

[SunCatcher]

Yes, it works. I've done exactly that with a 3 and a Y. The same card opens both.

and... how does someone program both sets of key cards together? Thx

 

[MC3OZ]

In my humble opinion, the likely GAAP margins can and will fluctuate with numerous extraneous variables (e.g. exchange rates for sales , production, employment) from an operating cash flow basis but not at all from a GAAP basis. For TSLA moire than many others there is variability because they do not directly hedge FX. Part fo that GAAP influence is often negative even when from a cash flow perspective the same effects can be positive. This quickly becomes both arcane, controversial and without enough direct data to resolve the conflicts.

Because of all that I depend far more on Free Cash Flow than I do on P&L. Almost by definition that minimizes volatility, which is the primary source for market maker profits. Consequently it is unsurprising that market makers and securities analysts rarely stray far from the most volatile measures they can find.
Those have a huge profit year right now as Tesla chose to concentrate on efficiency improvements and large capex for new products and new plants.

So long as people can concentrate on GAAP P&L we can be 'happily' assured that the actual FUD looks just like serious and genuine poor financial results. With Germany issues, including sabotage as well as expansion, China issues, primarily expansion and product development, Austin, Sparks, Buffalo, Monterrey, even Lathrop and so on, GAAP is quite likely to be negatively influenced this year while unit volume will not return to high growth until late next year, probably.

All that, and I watch Free Cash Flow. If it can stay positive with all that plus the pricing, supply interruptions and factory stoppage, especially Germany, we will now that Tesla maintains an impressive financial and logistics capacity with all those imply.

Nobody has thus far had too much direct evidence on that metric, just on GAAP P&L and/or auto sales trends.

Depending on the time horizon, there are longer term factors that can impact of car margins:-

• 4680 cell production (50% of cell costs)
• Gen3 manufacturing processes (30% of GA or manufacturing costs)
• Optimus robots in car factories
• FSD

I've posted here on how I see Gen3 production processes applying in future to all cars Tesla makes:-

Vehicle ramp discussion

Place to record the production ramping performance for new vehicles starting with CT:

teslamotorsclub.com

Media outlets are increasingly starting to predict EV prices below prices for ICE vehicles. IMO at price parity only a total fool would buy an ICE car.

Being able to think more than 3 months ahead is why I don't buy the EV demand issues narrative...

 

[Singuy]

Can you flesh out this theory some more?

I believe we have all seen the S growth curve, where it starts tapering off at the end. This is true for any single item. This is why Tesla invest into other growth vectors of other segments (energy/robotics/software). IMO Tesla's Model 3 and Y have exceeded any car in its class and price range by 2-3X (comparing to a 3 series/X3, C class sedan/GLC SUV). Correlation does not equal causation, but if it did, then other CEOs probably should be as spicy as Elon on X because they wish they can get the demand Tesla is getting using just two car models.

 

[BrownOuttaSpec]

An interesting data points that still show plenty of growth for Tesla vehicles...

I went on a nature hike today with a local group of people, we all met up in the parking lot and there was my Tesla, a Prius and the rest were SUV/Trucks and a 1-2 sedans. You would think that Eco-minded people who would want to wander in the woods for 2 hours would be eager to adopt an EV but only 1 (mine) out of 13 vehicles were a BEV

 

[Singuy]

An interesting data points that still show plenty of growth for Tesla vehicles...

I went on a nature hike today with a local group of people, we all met up in the parking lot and there was my Tesla, a Prius and the rest were SUV/Trucks and a 1-2 sedans. You would think that Eco-minded people who would want to wander in the woods for 2 hours would be eager to adopt an EV but only 1 (mine) out of 13 vehicles were a BEV

Lots of FUD out there. A colleague recently looked at me weird and said "people are still buying Teslas? There are a lot of bad press out". I was like what..."they catch on fire and runs into things?" She nodded and said "yeah!".

Also there are many many many people who believes our electrical grid cannot support EVs. No one ever mention the heating element in an air handler uses 15kw per hr of electricity. 3hr of usage would charge a car for a weeks worth of commute. Zero people cry about too many people putting in A/C units....

 

[MC3OZ]

Lots of FUD out there. A colleague recently looked at me weird and said "people are still buying Teslas? There are a lot of bad press out". I was like what..."they catch on fire and runs into things?" She nodded and said "yeah!".

Also there are many many many people who believes our electrical grid cannot support EVs. No one ever mention the heating element in an air handler uses 15kw per hr of electricity. 3hr of usage would charge a car for a weeks worth of commute. Zero people cry about too many people putting in A/C units....

EVs actually seem to make the problem of moving to high renewable energy grids easier...

That is because batteries are sized for road trips, and daily driving may only use 20%-30% of the battery...

If the weather forecast indicates a 2-3 day period of low renewable energy generation often batteries can be charged to 100% in advance riding through that period. So a significant portion of demand can easily be time-shifted.

Anyone with a EV and a suitable roof is more likely to install solar, some of the extra energy required can come from rooftop solar at home, at carparks and charging stations.

So the new system is nothing like the old system, and the problems many are predicting might not be the actual problems we end up having...

 

[woof]

and... how does someone program both sets of key cards together? Thx

See here: Using the same key card for two different cars?

 

[SmokyPeat]

Lots of FUD out there. A colleague recently looked at me weird and said "people are still buying Teslas? There are a lot of bad press out". I was like what..."they catch on fire and runs into things?" She nodded and said "yeah!".

Also there are many many many people who believes our electrical grid cannot support EVs. No one ever mention the heating element in an air handler uses 15kw per hr of electricity. 3hr of usage would charge a car for a weeks worth of commute. Zero people cry about too many people putting in A/C units....

Well, Elon is predicting that our grid won't be able support AI power demand within two years. He also predicted that we'd be in a global recession right now, though. So....

Elon Musk: AI will run out of electricity and transformers in 2025

"I've never seen any technology advance faster than this." The chip shortage may be behind us, but AI and EVs are expanding at such a rapacious rate that the world will face supply crunches in electricity and transformers next year, says Elon Musk.

newatlas.com

 

[phantasms]

Well, Elon is predicting that our grid won't be able support AI power demand within two years. He also predicted that we'd be in a global recession right now, though. So....

Elon Musk: AI will run out of electricity and transformers in 2025

"I've never seen any technology advance faster than this." The chip shortage may be behind us, but AI and EVs are expanding at such a rapacious rate that the world will face supply crunches in electricity and transformers next year, says Elon Musk.

newatlas.com

“Based on current trends, probably close to zero new cases in US too by end of April.”

 

[Krugerrand]

I suspect Tesla will build out gen3 capacity in gigaMexico, Shanghai and Germany at the same time.
If Tesla could build GigaTx and GigaBerlin from scratch almost simultaneously, they can ramp gen3 in 3 or more factories at the simultaneously.

And yet they didn’t do the Model 3 refresh in Shanghai and Fremont at the same time.

So, until they actually do what you suggest, I’ll assume they won’t (for any number of reasons I can think of off the top of my head) until they actually do.

 

[jabloomf1230]

She died in a car accident, why mention Tesla. If it were a Bronco ,
The car make would not have been mentioned.

OJ has entered the chat.