2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
That is a more rational take. Thanks!
Considering how the CT is sold out for several years, despite how people have been waiting for years, I don't think it's ramp is particularly relevant.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
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That is a more rational take. Thanks!
Considering how the CT is sold out for several years, despite how people have been waiting for years, I don't think it's ramp is particularly relevant.
It's not just Elon that has said it will be slow.
After 2 months GigaBerlin was producing 1k MYs per week.
That was easy to find.
These aren't customer VINs, they are VINs Tesla reports. In these forums we used this to track the M3 ramp.
It's relevant here when people are guessing how many can be made. It's 100% not going to be 125k, we know that as a starting point as that's max production for the line for a year...so we go from there.
Vins are registered prior to transit. Customers receive VINs before transit.
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
Thanks for throwing me a bone there with supporting information. Much appreciated.
Still, I don't see how the CT ramp rate will be of any significant value in assessing the bigger Tesla picture. It will have an effect, but as mentioned, Tesla isn't dependent upon CT in order to survive.
Though I do fully expect it to be the largest selling Cyber vehicle this year.
Completely agree on all.Thanks for throwing me a bone there with supporting information. Much appreciated.
Still, I don't see how the CT ramp rate will be of any significant value in assessing the bigger Tesla picture. It will have an effect, but as mentioned, Tesla isn't dependent upon CT in order to survive.
Though I do fully expect it to be the largest selling Cyber vehicle this year.
Just using it to help with guidance, etc.
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
So, CT is likely to ramp to what? Maybe 40-50K this year, instead of 125K line capacity. Okay.
This would mean a difference of 80K between line capacity and the lower of that guess/opinion for actual production.
We feel comfortable with the 2.1M for an expected number of vehicles in 2024, right?
So, we are talking about a "highly relevant" 4% of total vehicle production, correct? (not even considering Megapack production lines)
Wouldn't 4% be considered more like a rounding error for any max production estimate for all of Tesla's production lines for 2024?
Edit: for clarity, using the 125K line rate is ~6%, which still doesn't seem much would be gained or lost by using CT numbers for estimating 2024 production. Between the two extremes there is only 2% difference overall. In other words, CT ramp using either the high or the low production rate in that calculation is irrelevant.
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Right, like Elon also said, the CT won't impact Tesla's financials in a major way until 2025.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Definitely slower than planned (long time ago). Current plans will be inline with what is possible and we don't have insight into that.
Remember when CT was supposed to take on F150 ? The hope was CT would do to truck segment what 3 did to sedan and (more recently) Y to small SUVs. But currently CT is a halo vehicle more like S/X than 3/Y.
May be they need to introduce a "normal" truck to take on F150 like Elon had said once.
GhostSkater
Member
I know James had a Model S previously, but this should make some hardcore ICE forever fans brain hurt lol. Guy that has had the opportunity to drive almost every vehicle on the road, presenter of one of the most influential automotive show that has run for years and now in a new one that is make similar impact, has money to buy almost any vehicle
Sells his Tesla, to get another one
Oh cock!
Sells his Tesla, to get another one
Oh cock!
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Yeah, this has been my fantasy for some time: Tesla could use the currently idle space in the Berlin Phase 1 Assembly building to build an "unboxed" GA line sized for 500K/yr Model 2/Z cars. They buit Stamping 2 already, not used. They have 6 x 9000 ton Gigapresses, why not do a Gen3 'unboxed' car with front and rear castings with that unused capacity? 2025+ might still be 1 year sooner to Market than othewise. Phase 2 might not even be permitted by 2026!
I'd be more convinced if we see 4680 cell lines under construction at Berlin, else they'd need to import the cells (Texas seems to be building spare capacity). Also, slight chance Tesla could use this rumored BYD 4680 LFP cell in Berlin 2/Z, but details are scarce on that product:
Cheers!
OK, so on par with 2170's now by reducing deadspace. Given this was a "clean sheet" design, it would seem odd that they would plan on building a cell that was less volumetrically efficient to begin with. Hence my subsequent question:
Was the decrease of "deadspace" in order to get the same percentage of "active volume" per can as the 2170's, thus making each cell equivalent in terms of utilized volume and thus volumetric energy density?
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Is the 4680 jellyroll less energy dense per cm^3, and thus they were forced to squeeze extra added "active volume" utilized in the 4680 can, making them equivalent, energy on a call volume level, but still actually less efficient on a "volume of active jellyroll" basis?
IOW: Did they just find a way to cram more jellyroll in?
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
Apologies if this seems aggressive to you. But, the way you write, it sounds like you feel this is a done deal, when in fact, it is just beginning.
If any of the 2-3 million reservation holders would have bought an F-150 had there been no Cybertruck on the horizon, then, the CT has already made an impact on F-150 sales, simply because those potential buyers decided to wait for the CT instead.
In five or more years, once the CT production finally gets all of the current reservation holders served, let's look at the F-150 sales over that time and compare it to past sales to determine whether there were a discernible impact on Ford's flagship product.
If the CT reservations continue to ramp up, and remain in the millions while CT production adds Lines 2, 3, etc., what would that mean for the F-150?
There is more to consider before even tossing the idea of "introducing a 'normal' truck to take on the F-150" onto the table.
It could be just as likely that by the time orders for the CT are being filled in weeks instead of years that the CT style could very well be the defacto normal truck. Looking forward to seeing what the legacy OEM trucks look like in a few years.
To paraphrase Elon, what he said was more like, "if the CT is a flop we can always make a more traditional truck"
Is the CT a flop? I don't think so.
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EVNow
Well-Known Member
No - I think you are referring to car registrations ? AFAIK, VINs are registered by Tesla before assembly starts. When a CT is on truck to be shipped, VIN is assigned.
Yes, this correct. VIN creation, assembly, VIN assignment, then shipping.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Yes, lets wait for 5 or more years to come to the below conclusion
It is not about whether CT is a "flop" or not. The point I was making is this ...
When CT was announced at prices similar to Y - the hope was CT would take on F150 (and truck segment in general) the same way Y attacked SUVs. But with the current pricing and volume forecasts - it looks like CT will be something like S/X in terms of price and volume i.e. not a mainstream vehicle.
Can Tesla reduce prices and make it a mainstream vehicle ... yes, thats possible. But that is not the indication we are getting.
Remember the idea is to drive out ICE
Don TLR
Active Member
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
Yes, lets wait for 5 or more years to come to the below conclusion
It is not about whether CT is a "flop" or not. The point I was making is this ...
When CT was announced at prices similar to Y - the hope was CT would take on F150 (and truck segment in general) the same way Y attacked SUVs. But with the current pricing and volume forecasts - it looks like CT will be something like S/X in terms of price and volume i.e. not a mainstream vehicle.
Can Tesla reduce prices and make it a mainstream vehicle ... yes, thats possible. But that is not the indication we are getting.
Remember the idea is to drive out ICE
I'm saying that 2-3 million pickup buyers have reserved and are waiting years for their turn to order a CT, rather than buy an ICE or electric pickup today from the legacy OEMs. Others may be buying an ICE or Electric from legacy today with plans to use it and trade it on the CT when their number comes up.
Try to imagine Tesla eventually (5-8 years) reaching the point of being able to offer CT delivery in a month, and how that might affect ICE sales.
As for prices, that argument is moot. Every vehicle Tesla has produced comes down in price as production increases. The prices at the initial release have no bearing at all on volume forecasts when Tesla cannot produce them fast enough to meet demand.
Comparisons have already been presented showing how the other OEMs' current pickup prices are in the same ballpark with CT for similarly equipped models.
Not to mention, again, how as shareholders we want Tesla to make hay while the sun shines, right?
Did the Y or X have the problem of multi-years-long delivery estimates at their release? Apples and Oranges have more in common than does comparing CT to X in regard to price, volume, or any other expectations.
I really do not have any idea where you are seeing these "indications" being referred to.
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Not disagreeing, but in a way, every ramp up has issues, otherwise it would be a jump start (just go at full speed from the beginning) - some more, some less, but with so much new tech kind of expected this wasn´t going to be the quickest
cliff harris
Member
Tesla would be nuts to give any indication of cybertruck price drops in the future, even though they are extremely likely. Its absolutely normal to sell the first 10,000 of a much desired product at a high price then 'discover' efficiencies that let you 'pass on new savings' to later buyers. We don't know the real marginal cost of producing a cybertruck now, but I'd wager its already dramatically lower that the price of a foundation series!
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