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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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I have good friends who are well invested in Tesla and although Tesla is in the process of launching Semi and Cybertruck right after a successful Model Y launch and have Gen 3 (model 2) approaching and starting to ramp Energy nicely and have nice progress on Optimus and continue to improve on FSD and may leverage DOJO externally, etc., my good friends will look with conventional eyes and ask, "are you worried about the situation in Sweden?" :) (philw1776 bold & icon)
I'm curious. Since it's the weekend it's a good time to ask have any other Forum members had movies made about them like "The Accountant"?
 
This is the TSLA mean 30 day historical Implied Volatility charted all the way back to 2012. If you were to graph the other time frames, the story is similar. IV is at a relative minimum. This is not advice to purchase call options, but if you were going to purchase them, it is probably best done at a local minimum such as we are approximating...
Screenshot_20231223_123429_Chrome.jpg
 
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And they’ve now regulated additional nagging and 1 week detentions.

Not having anyone in a position doesn’t mean regulation can’t or won’t happen. It’s happening. NHSTA et al have known FSD is coming and because it’s been coming for years, they’ve had time to discuss at length behind the scenes. They’ve got regulatory ideas at least and quite likely a regulatory plan. They’ve just dropped Tesla owners a little taste of what’s to come and frankly, I don’t like it. It’s why we can’t have nice things and why stupid people continue to exist beyond their stupidity. All hail Darwin!

It's rather silly IMO. If they really want to make the roads safer they should disallow any vehicles access to the roads until they've demonstrated active and passive safety systems as good as Tesla's or better. Instead they come up with this...
😡
(Edit: only half joking...)
 
I was with your general sentiment of (be kind) until this. It feels like you’re picking winners and losers (and maybe you’ve picked correctly - however, not the point).

We’ve no idea who’s the more intelligent. For all you know GJ and MS are just as intelligent as the others, with their own backgrounds, skills and experience, they just choose to use it all differently than those in your personally preferred group - the group that throws a Tesla support bone to you now and again.

Basically, it’s hypocritical. Telling us how we should view individuals, how we should group them per your opinion is bs even if I agree with your grouping - which for clarification I don’t.

Carry on grouping people from your personal perspective, I support your right to do that, but don’t tell the rest of us we need to follow suit and why we’re wrong to do otherwise. If people had stopped doing that, Elon wouldn’t have felt the need to buy you know what.

I like your point, @Krugerrand, and I agree with us aiming to be impartial in our assessments. But as usual, I think you're being a bit harsh / unfair.

In @cliff harris' defence, I think there's an unbiased difference between GJ and the others he mentions, and it's not about if we agree with them or not.

I truly think GJ is paid to spout stuff he doesn't really believe (at the risk of a political analogy, it's similar to some Reps supporting the view that the election was rigged - they don't really believe it, but they say it to curry MAGA favour, Lindsey Graham is a perfect example). GJ is like a parliamentary opposition critic (check out UK or Canadian political systems if you're unsure what that entails). He takes a blindly negative view because someone (Big Oil, Hedge Funds, it's irrelevant to this point) is paying him to market views which negatively affect TSLA.

Cathie, Gary, and Electrek all say what they think, and sometimes that happens to be negative and or seem wrong to many of us on TMC. But I respect those three even when I don't agree with them.

Opposition parties serve a somewhat useful purpose as they are mandated not to lie or slander. GJ and his ilk, however, are on a lower rung of hell IMHO because I think he knowingly lies and deceives the public.
 
BYD financial reports do not offer enough detail to tell profitability fo any given product line. Since they are so diverse, with trains, busses, trucks, cars, batteries and more, detailed product line information would be highly desirable. Notably, their financial condition does not reflect anything resembling TSLA-style conservatism. To simplify the results just glance at Yahoo Finance can flow statement:
As that shows clearly, product line profitability is the least of the issues. The late Charlie Munger really ignored all the famed Berkshire financial acuity on this one! Much is positive about BYD, specifically their quite good batteries that Tesla buys and their very good electric busses, including their diverse cars. However, their financial structure shows good access to funding but minimal concern for cash flow or leverage. They'll thrive and survive so long as their access to funding continues unabated.

Every year end I do a BYD review as I do for several potential investments. Each time I realize that product line profitability or not is the least of the issues. BYD is pursuing new markets and geographies very aggressively, always with easy capital access but singly never with concern for conventional financial resilience.

FWIW, quite similar characteristics were present for Toyota in the 1960's and later, Hyundai in the 1970's and later, among others. The seemingly imprudent financial structure may not be any more an issue for BYD as it was for Toyota and Hyundai. In all three of those and others, because the financial and operating character of Japanese, Korean and Chinese conglomerates is fundamentally different than are those of the Western hemisphere the risks are themselves quite different.

This all makes TSLA all the more amazingly unique. I choose that word, unique, purposefully. We all compare TSLA with other investment options. That is difficult because both Tesla and SpaceX have done things and are doing things that are unprecedented. When we try to see them in conventional eyes our eyes deceive us. One of the primary reasons for all that volatility and all that shorting is that conventionally Tesla should never have existed much less thrived.

Now, as I am doing my annual review I am struck by how little some of the more flamboyantly unconventional behavior by our CEO matters. Obviously much is distracting and some is offense to many of us. Then when examining in cold rationality what is happening I am astounded to realize that the innovation continues unabated. The operating environment in Tesla foments further innovation. Oddly, perhaps, I end this volatile and controversial year reaffirming my conviction that TSLA should remain as it is, one of my largest holdings.

The nearest OEM to Tesla's range is BYD, with perhaps BMW and Hyundai/Kia next for cars only, and VAG as a factor if they survive as is. Otherwise there only GWM, Geely and, in the EU at least, Stellantis. I posted a bit about BYD today. Each of those others have huge legacy impediments, including GWM which has a legacy as a Magna-style Tier One and contract manufacturer. All in all, none are really approaching Tesla overall.

Finally, Magna remains unremarked, mostly but they do have BEV technologies and are expanding those:
It is easy to ignore Magna but they are very skilled at contract manufacturing and they are becoming adept at EV technology. Remember the IPace, built by Magna-Steyr and very successful initially although JLR left them static while others evolved. Still, we need to monitor Magna. Few may remember that long ago in 2015:
Magna-Steyr and the Canadian operations have continued investments after that.
What devlopments are next? I fully expect that some (e.g. GM, Ford, Stelantis) will be using Magna for innovation and smaller volume production. Since Magna-Steyr already has made cars for nearly every EU OEM I fully expect the EV model ranges will have Magna products appearing soon.
With those developments and:
Magna Enhances ADAS Capabilities by Joining 5G Innovation Program
Magna remains regularly as a potential investment. I have been in and out of MGA from time to time, less deeply because fo continuing issues of corporate control.

So from year end perspective I once again decide the TSLA future is bright, so I'll stay as is, HODL.
MGA might well reappear in my sights depending on the next few months.

This was all is response to BYD, of which I had just completed my review and decided to remain a watcher, not an investor. Too much unmitigated risk for me!
Thank you for your EOY analysis. I appreciate that you shared your thread relevant summary with us and hope you share your summary again in future Decembers!
 
Well, it seems they regulated 0mph stops for fsdb

So first- fsdb isn't self driving. at all

Second they regulated "disobeying existing laws"

All the states WITHOUT regulatory approval process regarding >L2 still require the system to follow all traffic laws.


Maybe you're right technically, but any company that wants to deploy robotaxis at scale should talk it over with NHTSA first

Why?

They literally do not regulate this

The STATES do.

And most states that allow it have no "regulation" other than just state you follow the law and have insurance.


And Texas' regulation says that AVs must follow all traffic laws, do any robotaxi company should discuss going over the speed limit with the Texas regulators, in essence getting their approval


uh... what?

RTs don't speed. They're required to follow all traffic laws- period end of story. There's nothing to "discuss"
 
So first- fsdb isn't self driving. at all

Second they regulated "disobeying existing laws"

All the states WITHOUT regulatory approval process regarding >L2 still require the system to follow all traffic laws.




Why?

They literally do not regulate this

The STATES do.

And most states that allow it have no "regulation" other than just state you follow the law and have insurance.





uh... what?

RTs don't speed. They're required to follow all traffic laws- period end of story. There's nothing to "discuss"

I think the discussion here is moot because:

1) Tesla says rollout of their robotaxis is dependent on regulatory approval. This is not false because Tesla has always intended to deploy a generalized robotaxis service, which encompasses the US, so they'd need approval in at least a few states.

2) even if Tesla doesn't need NHTSA official approval, it's a bad decision to one day flip the switch on millions of L4 cars... Without some vetting from NHTSA

3) While you may be right technically about not needing official approvals, it's difficult to imagine a world where a company like Tesla would deploy millions of robotaxis across the US without some vetting by regulatory agencies beforehand

4) so it just seems like you're pointing out this regulatory approval issue for no real practical reason
 
Just in case any of us do not remember, a crucial aspect of Tesla's success is a positive cash conversion cycle, which would be improbable without direct distribution, an obsessive supply chain logistics operation, and equally obsessive attention to efficiency and cost reduction.

...ruthless efficiency, and a fanatical dedication to the Pope. And nice red uniforms. ;)
 
And they’ve now regulated additional nagging and 1 week detentions.

meanwhile, lost in the noise is the likelihood that Tesla has now deploy 'Single-stack' as standard Auto-pilot (that's the code that now bitches at AP owners too when they don't pay attention to the road). Tesla wouldn't have written this twice, they'd just restrict the feature set of FSD beta for std AP.

Cheers!
 
I feel like you keep going on about this tomato tomato thing. I haven't read too much into this, but it seems that California and New York both require some approval to deploy L3+ systems, so there is some regulatory approval process to deploy robotaxis in general (to a broad US market).

NY: Apply for an Autonomous Vehicle Technology Demonstration / Testing Permit

CA: California DMV Approves Mercedes-Benz Automated Driving System for Certain Highways and Conditions - California DMV

And even if a state doesn't explicitly require approval, it's prudent to give their regulators (and probably NHTSA) a heads-up as well:

TX: Texas Senate Unanimously Approves Bill to Create Self-Driving Vehicle Standards
All I know is I cannot imagine without some formal state L3 approval that a Massachusetts State trooper would not pull me over if I was watching a video while driving on the highway. And even with approval I'd be sure to know how to retrieve that info to show the trooper from my phone.

Certainly not worried about this now since this certainly won't happen until 2025 at the earliest.
 
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Just watched the movie. It certainly does make Tesla look like a real bad move..or product. A long unending line of smashed up white (like mine) Model 3's stacked up and more coming down the road at high speed and crashing into the rear of the long line. A not so subtle comment on Musk? Or EV's ?
SPOILER ALERT*
Thanks for that; IMO though I'd like to suggest that the video sequence showing the Tesla 3's going at each other end to end does have first impression of being negative for the brand, however I would like to suggest that in the context of the movie it is a symbolic representation of just another one of humanities failed technologies as a result of cyber/nuclear warfare.
 
SPOILER ALERT*
Thanks for that; IMO though I'd like to suggest that the video sequence showing the Tesla 3's going at each other end to end does have first impression of being negative for the brand, however I would like to suggest that in the context of the movie it is a symbolic representation of just another one of humanities failed technologies as a result of cyber/nuclear warfare.
And I simply thought it was a failure of the human race to first destroy the planet and then believe that technologies will save them...I am sure there are other twists to the movie.