Drumheller
Active Member
So this is how cats take over the world.
There never was any US EV competition.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
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insaneoctane
Well-Known Member
Sounds good....What could possibly go wrong
Yes, and let's not forget setting the world irrevocably on the path to EV's, sustainable energy generation and storage pretty much singlehandedly, against all odds and the combined might of the fossil fuel and extractive entities. That's all. Might that be worth a mention, Mr. Farrow?
Those values from the IEA are not “forecasts” in the sense that they were trying to figure out where things might be going in a theoretical scenario if certain actions were taken, those were trying to show where things would be headed at that point in time given no new policy changes.So what? The IEA forecasts have been consistently wrong on renewable energy market projections, both for cost declines and production volume growth. Badly wrong, over and over and over again. There is systematic estimation bias that they still have not fixed. Why should we believe their latest estimates?
Look at these charts. This is an embarrassment.
View attachment 967111
View attachment 967110
Solar's Future is Insanely Cheap (2020)
This is part 1 of a series where I'll look at the future costs of clean energy and mobility technologies. This is a refresh of and expansion of my 2015 series on the future oframeznaam.com
^This whole article is good and has more charts like these two.
Knowing where things would lead without policy changes is how you affect change in policy to arrive somewhere else…. Each time that has been updated, it’s supposed to be showing where new policy measures have changed the outlook and what will happen if further changes aren’t made.
Yes, I have also noticed that this type of graph is often posted here
I like to follow Cory on the stocks channel for astrology…he is usually pounding the table about filling gaps below; but his analysis was pretty bullish from todays action.
Paraphrasing; gaps that are island reversals on high volume are an exception to the gap filling rule. This gap could signal to astrologists a new low. Allegedly.
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
When its feeding time at the Zoo, the elephant gets his way while the chickens are pecking at the side of the road.
View attachment 967181
Lion == The FED (offscreen and to the Right)
Cheers to the Zookeepers!
Is that a graph or a chart?
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2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
The UAW thinks that upper management is overrated in comparison to the contribution of the actual workers.
Once upper management is gone they will take the reins and show the world just how to run a car company or two.
/s
Heh. Many, many moons ago, when was a College Student taking Econ, one could get a dead-cheap subscription to the Wall Street Journal. They've always been a conservative rag but, back then, long before Murdoch, they definitely told it like it was.
So, if memory serves, there was this Borax refining factory operating out in the Great Salt Lake area in Utah, in the desert somewhere. There was a company town where most of the workers lived and a Very Strong Union. Nothing wrong with any of that. Headquarters for the company happened to be in NYC.
The company wasn't wildly profitable. The occasional executive who went out to Look At Things got the cold shoulder from the locals who, to a worker, detested all those idiots back east.
In the search of more $$ (it is presumed), the union went on strike.
The company was in dire straits. If they gave into the union, they'd go bankrupt in pretty short order. If they didn't ship something, likewise.
So, in desperation, amongst the couple hundred of headquarters staff (mainly marketing, sales, and so forth) they asked for volunteers. They got a hundred people.
They got, I think, one, maybe two of the foremen at the plant willing to teach willing newbies. The newbies brought sleeping bags, food, and other supplies, understanding that going back and forth through the gates more than once would be Dangerous.
It got interesting. There were (again, this is very rough memory) something like 500 people employed at the plant. When the newbies got there, they discovered piles of unrefined borax piled up everywhere under moving ramps; stuff that sifted though hadn't been touched in decades, never mind years.
These hundred or so people got busy. They did whatever the foreman said, which nearly gave the poor sucker a heart attack. It only took 50 or so people to actually get the plant running. The rest looked around and found small yellow earth movers and the like and thought, "Jeez, what could I do with this?" and attacked all the piles of waste.
In a couple of weeks the plant looked pristine and was breaking all records for production.
I don't know how labor law works in this kind of situation, but I remember the article saying that new, permanent workers were brought in over the next month or so. And the company never looked back.
Don't get me wrong: In my opinion, there are places where employers are seriously abusive and one needs a union to keep life and limb together, not to mention a wage that a person won't starve upon. But there are unions which get out of control; and the one at that Borax site was one of them. And deserved the fate that karma delivered.
The question is: What type of union is the UAW?
YupIs that a graph or a chart?
Carl Raymond
Active Member
Yaman explains how leases on the balance sheet prevent legacy auto from competing on price. Tesla driving down prices inflicts a world of pain.
MartinAustin
Active Member
Kinda well-understood and has been discussed here by the more visionary investors for years. (not disagreeing with him)
It's clear that the lease return values of many ICE vehicles is going to plummet, and if the initial sale prices don't fall - or if they go up - the lease payments on new leases are going to rocket upwards. Meanwhile the lease payments on BEVs will be smaller, and might even shrink if resale values of BEVs remain high. Add this to the pile of other reasons it ain't gonna be pretty at ICE dealerships as we go forwards.
MartinAustin
Active Member
I noticed today that CNBC hardly gave any coverage to the pretty large setback that General Motors' autonomy unit has suffered - a 50% reduction in operations and real investigation into real incidents by California DMV. GM stock was up half a percent today. Zero mentions of this issue on CNBC's youtube channel.
Can't help think that a similarly problematic setback to Tesla FSD would have gotten more coverage. Like, every 30 minutes, all day. Ignoring their yearly increasing vehicle sales and other positives, but predicting "cataclysm ahead" for Tesla
Can't help think that a similarly problematic setback to Tesla FSD would have gotten more coverage. Like, every 30 minutes, all day. Ignoring their yearly increasing vehicle sales and other positives, but predicting "cataclysm ahead" for Tesla
I was convinced of that too, but recently I haven’t been convinced of that anymore. The main reason is the attitude of a certain part of the population. These people a convinced that EV’s are just a phase, and that everything will revert back to ICE, or in the worst case, to hydrogen. These people will be willing to pay way too high second-hand prices for out-of-lease cars, convinced that it is The Right Thing to do.
Where do I find these people? Mostly on Facebook comments. You have to be pretty delusional to start repeating 10 year old FUD in the comment section of ads for EV chargers, but that’s pretty much the only kind of comment I see in ads for EV and EV-related stuff on FB. Pro-EV commenters stopped commenting or left FB, making the comment sections an echo chamber for ICE-addicts.
This is the part of the population that will only buy EV’s when they are forced to, most likely because of range anxiety because the density of gas stations will get too low. In Belgium I think this will be around 2030: by then, almost no ICE cars will get out-of-lease (because the new car market is mainly the company car market that has been forced to EV with tax rules) and the volume of gas sold will have plummeted (because most of the consumption also comes from company cars).
Hmmm, these Highland test cars have some of the roof covered (see tape on the sides going up) unlike the others we have seen before...
Does anyone else think what I think?
Does anyone else think what I think?
There is a long history, public but obscure, of huge losses on residual values when vehicles had unusual drops in resale prices. BMW 7 séries first iDrive, Cadillac V8/6/4, numerous makes/models discontinued suddenly.
These have never been the norm. The rapid conversion to BEV is already having an effect where BEV adoption is high, but…vast swathes of thebworld have almost no BEV, and some of them are already good markets for used cars and trucks.
I think the adoption process will still be slow enough to avoid resale blooodbaths overall, but in nearly all of the urban EU and China the urban delivery vehicle market is BEV already, and ICE small delivery resale has plummeted. That sort of drop requires both regulation and market action.
As much as people discuss Tesla depreciation they really haven’t seen bloodbaths. The only solid comparisons have been discontinued brands in large markets, VW Phaeton, SAAB, Saturn, are all examples. The future of several new BEV brands is headed there before the overall ICE market ‘hits a wall’. My guess is that will happen in EU variously through 2030, and globally by 2035 or so, if present trends continue.
Infrastructure alone will take that long In much of the world.
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cliff harris
Member
This needs emphasis! something I learned from my day job is that you always, always always underestimate how many people out there have still not heard about that thing that you see and read about everywhere. I swear there are people where I live who have never heard of Tesla, let alone that they are making a truck, and definitely couldn't describe it or pick it out of a lineup.
A picture speaks a thousand words, and the first 1,000 cybertrucks are going to be rolling billboards. EVERYONE is going to be posting pics on social media, and the first youtube videos and reviews are going to generate an insane number of views.
I bet even the BBC will grudgingly run a story about its deliveries, although it will probably be dripping with snark, negativity and elon-hate, as is their usual format.
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