Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[dhanson865]

We had two years of free, easy money. TSLA ain't never going back to the Stephenson line. Stephenson needs a new line. No worries. TSLA will still get to ATH, just will take a little bit longer.

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You realize that numerous predictions are more bullish than the Stephenson line?

Ark Invest (kathy woods/tasha keeny)
Farzad Mesbahi
Steven Mark Ryan (solving the money problem)
The-accountant here on TMC (5 year target thread)


I don't buy your doom and gloom that we'll never get back above the line.

 

[JusRelax]

We had two years of free, easy money. TSLA ain't never going back to the Stephenson line. Stephenson needs a new line. No worries. TSLA will still get to ATH, just will take a little bit longer.

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Over time, it is almost a guarantee that history will prove you wrong because the Stephenson indicator is linear while the stock market is exponential in nature. Even our covid incentive bubble-fueled period will look tiny fifty years from now.

 

[MC3OZ]

We had two years of free, easy money.

How much of that money still exists?

Some was spent on a Crypto bubble, and is IMO gone for ever.

Some was spent keeping some companies in business.

Some was simply spent by consumers.

Some went into real estate and shares less worthy than Tesla.

Where the money was spent, or unwisely invested, it is gone forever.

Sure there are times when the Tesla valuation runs ahead of fundamentals, but there are also times when it lags.

Estimates of future earnings are the best guide.

 

[Xepa777]

We had two years of free, easy money. TSLA ain't never going back to the Stephenson line. Stephenson needs a new line. No worries. TSLA will still get to ATH, just will take a little bit longer.

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The same James Stephenson who once predicted 540k+ deliveries in 4Q21 alone w/ASP @ $108k+. Also predicted $16.6bn GAAP Earnings for FY21. And like a dozen other hilariously off-tilt predictions? The bull version of Gordon Johnson? Yah that alone discredits this chart.

 

[dhanson865]

The same James Stephenson who once predicted 540k+ deliveries in 4Q21 alone w/ASP @ $108k+. Also predicted $16.6bn GAAP Earnings for FY21. And like a dozen other hilariously off-tilt predictions? The bull version of Gordon Johnson? Yah that alone discredits this chart.

There is nothing in the chart to discredit, It's the TSLA stock chart with a diagonal line on top.

It's not meant to be a prediction, it's not meant to have any deep meaning. It's just a diagonal line that we enjoy laughing about while talking about when TSLA will break out of the horizontal doldrums.

But if you can't grok it just ignore it.

 

[dhanson865]

updated YTD table from World EV Sales Now 19% Of World Auto Sales! - CleanTechnica

 

[dhanson865]

Now if we are looking for the bull version of Gordon Johnson the freshest candidate is AlphiQuant, or maybe someone in the $10,000+ club in the list below:

Spoiler: bigger image

 

[Bet TSLA]

Apparently Elon is on FSD 12 alpha, and is raving about it.

You do realize that Elon says that about every new version, right? Somehow, all these mind-blowing versions are about the same as the previous version: two steps forward and 1.8 steps back. Usually better, but not much. You have to just ignore what he says or you'll be very unhappy with the actual progress of FSD.

Me, I've bought it three times now, and I'll probably buy it again on the Cybertruck (if they really locked in the price like they said), but there's no way I'd spend $15K on the system today. Maybe one day, if it gets much, much better, it will be worth what I paid for it. All it would take is it performing like Elon said it would in 2018.

 

[Max Plaid]

updated YTD table from World EV Sales Now 19% Of World Auto Sales! - CleanTechnica

PHEV <> EV

 

[lascavarian]

PHEV <> EV

Bold = BEV per bottom caption

 

[UkNorthampton]

Bold = BEV per bottom caption

It's a better way of expressing the charts than I've seen previously, but it needs contrasting colours/patterns (colour-blind) and ability to sort/exclude fossil hybrids.

 

[lascavarian]

It's a better way of expressing the charts than I've seen previously, but it needs contrasting colours/patterns (colour-blind) and ability to sort/exclude fossil hybrids.

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I like your improvement!

 

[Cobbler]

The best just got better

 

[Christine69420]

The Cybertruck can be spotted a couple of times in Jeff's latest video:

At 11:45 turning left from the road towards the upramp.

At 12:30 inside the factory where they just removed a wall panel.


I remember when they started making the Model Y in Texas. It was spotted a few times. Some pics leaked from inside the factory. Then one day suddenly a bunch of them appeared on the southern parking lot. I guess they had made more than they could fit inside the building.

 

[CaliBear1]

Reuters dosnt quite get it.

It’s all about scale and the up trends.

Once Tesla Berlin & Austin scallop to full capacity it’s game on.

I sea what you did there.

 

[Thekiwi]

Now if we are looking for the bull version of Gordon Johnson the freshest candidate is AlphiQuant, or maybe someone in the $10,000+ club in the list below:

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Spoiler: bigger image

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[Thekiwi]

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The best just got better

Weird. What’s the point of still producing the older 3 design? Using up parts?

 

[lascavarian]

Weird. What’s the point of still producing the older 3 design? Using up parts?

Just a guess but probably more training for all shifts.

Excess parts can be moved into service spares in support of the millions of existing models. YMMV

 

[cliff harris]

Are we 100% sure that highland replaces, rather then augments the model 3?
Maybe model 3: highland is a new entry-tier for the model 3, cheaper than the standard range, with a few cosmetic differences to make it clear that its not as premium as the current model 3?
I bet a lot of model 3 buyers would be quite happy with less acceleration, and a slower max charge rate, maybe even a smaller screen, if it shaved a noticeable amount off the price. Might be the model 3 without indicator stalks (madness in my opinion, but YMMV).

I'd be quite happy with that strategy, as an investor. Model 2 is post-mexico build, and years away. Anything Tesla can do to expand the price range downwards, without compromising existing sales is good! Model 2 can be the big move in the future, but I bet Tesla can sell 500k cheaper model 3 highlands before model 2 is delivered.

 

[scaesare]

Coder for 42 years here (on and off).
Nothing feels better on a large project than being able to throw away old lines of code. If the new code leads to simplicity, then this is the holy grail. Code tends to just stack, and stack and turn from what was once elegance to... spaghetti, full of bugs and impossible to understand.
As a C++ programmer, the thing I want most to hear is 'we threw away a huge chunk of code and replaced it with this elegant solution that is way simpler'. The very WORST thing imaginable is to brag about how many more lines of code were written by a vast army of coders. Bloated code kills efficiency, and leads to unreliable software.

Tesla is VERY lucky to have an ex programmer as CEO. So many conventional productivity metrics make no sense in the world of programming, but unless the very top brass are coders too, its hard to make that part of the culture.

Great post.

Reminds me of: Bill Atkinson Anecdote