Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[nativewolf]

The potential impact of the Tesla Semi is hard to describe to those without a background understanding of the trucking industry. It's huge, just huge. First off, the truck industry is small, a few million units are on the road. Of those 90% are local routes meaning they are home for dinner or breakfast. Tesla Semi competes in that space, local rigs. The range is more than adequate for those jobs. The performance, if delivered as described, is superior for many users. Fuel costs are a huge driver for truckers- they can spend $300-500 a day for diesel.

So we have a small industry with an outsize impact from each single unit produced. Fuel costs goes from almost a dollar a mile to $0.10 per mile. The trucks are not more expensive than ICE trucks. The synergy with Megapack installations and other energy products is huge. Unit sales in the industry are usually less than 200k per year, sometimes much less. So the 50k/year run rate will take out 50/200 (10% being long haul) of the total US fleet. That would be far more of the market than we have in the managed to replace in over a decade of EV production focused on retail cars. Each year having an impact similar to removing over 2mln automobiles.

The Semi is the killer save the earth, create unit synergy with Tesla Energy, huge scale potential business product. I think the CT will be successful but frankly I fear it will be a 3rd or 4th car for many and will in fact due little to reduce global warming. To save the earth and make money- the Tesla Semi.

There are risks and issues= reliability is huge and Tesla has to do far more trouble shooting with a class 8 truck than a car. If a car breaks someone is late for dinner. If a truck breaks it can not only kill others but supply chains are disrupted and people who make money managing logistics notice. They need to work and work mostly flawlessly. So the first clients will all be beta testers. That knowledge incorporated into build processes before the main assembly plant is completed next year. Very cautious and well done. It will be 2026 before we really see Semi hitting it's stride but as soon as orders open back up we'll buy 2.

Let me be more clear on the impact. Within 2 years of Tesla semi hitting full production (50k units annually) the diesel/gas market in the USA will invert (today diesel usually costs much more than gas/petrol - it will become much less expensive) and the USA refineries will have to start exporting diesel in order to keep refining oil. It's going to shake the oil industry. Every barrel of oil produces a wide variety of products and each product has a home but if you eliminate the market for 25% of the barrel you destroy the economics of refining anything. The semi is going to be huge!

 

[Fred42]

GM doubling down on their ICE and dropping a billion on a new flip phone V8 is the height of stupidity.

I guess it was an assumption on my part that I thought the upcoming Corvette SUV's will be electric. They will be gasoline powered.

 

[MartinAustin]

Let me be more clear on the impact. Within 2 years of Tesla semi hitting full production (50k units annually) the diesel/gas market in the USA will invert (today diesel usually costs much more than gas/petrol - it will become much less expensive) and the USA refineries will have to start exporting diesel in order to keep refining oil. It's going to shake the oil industry. Every barrel of oil produces a wide variety of products and each product has a home but if you eliminate the market for 25% of the barrel you destroy the economics of refining anything. The semi is going to be huge!

Hopefully that drives up the value of recycling plastic. A lot of recyclable plastics are gathered up and then not recycled, due to how cheap it is to just use new plastic

 

[dhanson865]

5000 Model Ys per week from Giga Texas officially confirmed.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1656069773245947907

Note Berlin had a head start, the bottom chart evens out the starting point. Berlin is ahead either way you look at it.

 

[nativewolf]

Hopefully that drives up the value of recycling plastic. A lot of recyclable plastics are gathered up and then not recycled, due to how cheap it is to just use new plastic

Yes the knock on impacts are just going to be amazing to watch. EVs as a whole will take several years more to have such an impact but the Tesla Semi will very quickly disrupt refining. As a keen student of economic history...it's going to be a once in a lifetime view of disruption. PhD dissertations will be written about this for years.

 

[Thekiwi]

Good breakout of China April activity:

 

[Ogre]

I guess it was an assumption on my part that I thought the upcoming Corvette SUV's will be electric. They will be gasoline powered.

They will have 4 miles of elecitric only travel

 

[Ogre]

Note Berlin had a head start, the bottom chart evens out the starting point. Berlin is ahead either way you look at

Berlin shipping more cars, Texas is shipping cars + batteries. Both are ambitious and hugely successful. One is faster, the other has greater depth. How you score the two is irrelevant since nobody else on the planet can do anything near what they’ve done with either.

 

[bkp_duke]

Note Berlin had a head start, the bottom chart evens out the starting point. Berlin is ahead either way you look at it.

Makes sense that Berlin is ahead. Texas is trying to build structural 4680s, so things are dependent upon that ramp, and mixing in 2170s to fill the gap, and then more than half the building is for producing the Cybertruck. Surprised they are as close as they are.

 

[dhanson865]

Makes sense that Berlin is ahead. Texas is trying to build structural 4680s, so things are dependent upon that ramp, and mixing in 2170s to fill the gap, and then more than half the building is for producing the Cybertruck. Surprised they are as close as they are.

Berlin shipping more cars, Texas is shipping cars + batteries. Both are ambitious and hugely successful. One is faster, the other has greater depth. How you score the two is irrelevant since nobody else on the planet can do anything near what they’ve done with either.

I'm happy that both lines have a noticeable uptick in slope from the 4k to 5k points compared to the prior slopes.

I'm not complaining about any difference between Texas and Berlin.

I'm just looking forward to

A. Tesla selling more cars worldwide
B. Model Y prices dropping in the US (because I haven't bought one yet)

 

[generalenthu]

I have seen no speculation on the highland 3 production starting in Shanghai. Seems like no cell phones are allowed, which is pretty nuts, if it were a run of the mill Y casting for 3, and some minor front end changes. So some juicy speculation is warranted and here is my guess:

I think Tesla is building the new gen model 3 with some of the techniques they talked about at the investor day for the 25k car. Before they can use the technology on a high volume line (5m per year vehicle), there is a need to demonstrate this in a lower volume line and learn the ropes.

So what better platform than the 3 to pioneer that, and what better market than China to try it in where cost competition is the highest?

You heard it here first.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Berlin shipping more cars, Texas is shipping cars + batteries. Both are ambitious and hugely successful. One is faster, the other has greater depth. How you score the two is irrelevant since nobody else on the planet can do anything near what they’ve done with either.

I reckon Tesla is producing about 30K Models Y per week globally ATM. Something like this:

Fremont: 6K​

Shanghai: 14K​

Berlin: 5K​

Austin: 5K​

This should increase to over 40K/wk by the time GF4/5 ramp their 2nd Model Y GA lines. It they just match Shanghai production from these newer Gigafactories, that would be a 14K Models Y per week installed capacity at both Gigas Berlin and Austin.

When Tesla hits a run rate of 41.3K/wk, that's 2.0 MILLION Model Y per year. That's gonna leave a mark.

Ooh, what u do to me, Toyoda!

 

[Thekiwi]

1st week of May China number (Remember they were shutdown/reduced output for several days for the May Day holidays)

 

[Artful Dodger]

I have seen no speculation on the highland 3 production starting in Shanghai. Seems like no cell phones are allowed, which is pretty nuts, if it were a run of the mill Y casting for 3, and some minor front end changes. So some juicy speculation is warranted and here is my guess:

Tesla China denied the rumor on social media today. Note that the rumor was 'pilot production' to begin in June, and what Tesla denied was 'production to begin in June'. The two are not mutually exclusive...

I think Tesla is building the new gen model 3 with some of the techniques they talked about at the investor day for the 25k car. Before they can use the technology on a high volume line (5m per year vehicle), there is a need to demonstrate this in a lower volume line and learn the ropes.

So what better platform than the 3 to pioneer that, and what better market than China to try it in where cost competition is the highest?

I expect to see the new $1K powertrain (w. new low-cost motors, possibly with cast AL rotors; new inverters with less SiC). It's also possible Highland could include the 48V low-voltage architecture, allowing automated assembly/installation of the wiring harness. I also expect to see 'Highland' go into production nearly simultaneously at Fremont and Shanghai.

I don't think we'll see a significant change in the paint process (as teased by Tom Zhu for NextGen at Giga Monterrey). I am also quite sure we won't see the structure of the car changed significantly to allow the final GA step to be the joining of large, mostly complete modules. I think for now that GA will continue on a linear assembly line. But this will be the last iteration for that process. It's "unboxing the future" from here on out!

Cheers!

 

[generalenthu]

Tesla China denied the rumor on social media today. Note that the rumor was 'pilot production' to begin in June, and what Tesla denied was 'production to begin in June'. The two are not mutually exclusive...


I expect to see the new $1K powertrain (w. new low-cost motors, possibly with cast AL rotors; new inverters with less SiC). It's also possible Highland could include the 48V low-voltage architecture, allowing automated assembly/installation of the wiring harness. I also expect to see 'Highland' go into production nearly simultaneously at Fremont and Shanghai.

I don't think we'll see a significant change in the paint process (as teased by Tom Zhu for NextGen at Giga Monterrey). I am also quite sure we won't see the structure of the car changed significantly to allow the final GA step to be the joining of large, mostly complete modules. I think for now that GA will continue on a linear assembly line. But this will be the last iteration for that process. It's "unboxing the future" from here on out!

Cheers!

Let's see. I think the unboxed build process has to be tried on a lower volume line. While it's less than even odds, I wouldn't mind a surprise.

Also now that giga mexico is breaking ground soon, and to the extent that it's a machine that builds the machine, it's necessary to deeply understand the build process.

Wearing the Musk hat, it feels not at all exciting to move to the next gen when you can skip a generation. Like I said, this is firmly speculation, but the idealogy around starting quickly and iterating often would logically suggest an unboxed process, at least to my way of thinking.

 

[AndrewZ]

1st week of May China number (Remember they were shutdown/reduced output for several days for the May Day holidays)

View attachment 936380

BYD with 45.8k insured NEV units in the same week, who knows how many of those are PHEVs rather than BEVs

That number almost feels hard to believe

 

[Singuy]

BYD with 45.8k insured NEV units in the same week, who knows how many of those are PHEVs rather than BEVs

That number almost feels hard to believe

Didn't they say numbers won't be reported weekly anymore?

 

[Ogre]

When Tesla hits a run rate of 41.3K/wk, that's 2.0 MILLION Model Y per year. That's gonna leave a mark.

Hearing that it’s not just Tesla moving forward, but Toyota volume is starting to collapse.

Starting to really sink in to the larger population that ICE cars are obsolete. Might see some huge market shifts in 2024. Good chance the market for small-mid sized ICE cars is nearly wiped out completely in 2 years.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Hearing that it’s not just Tesla moving forward, but Toyota volume is starting to collapse.

Starting to really sink in to the larger population that ICE cars are obsolete. Might see some huge market shifts in 2024. Good chance the market for small-mid sized ICE cars is nearly wiped out completely in 2 years.

Yup, a $40K Model Y SR will do that. Then the $25K compact CUV arriving in serious volume by 2025.

'Hey! Yer ICEberg is melting!'

 

[AndrewZ]

Didn't they say numbers won't be reported weekly anymore?

The one Twitter account posted about the blog having issues with their stuff being reposted or something, now these posts aren’t citing a source

Had also read though that Chinese corporate data were starting to be more broadly restricted from outsiders