Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MC3OZ]

I'm sorry but the 13d inventory was the end of Q4-2022 number, not the annual average. Here are the relevant numbers :

View attachment 924758
(Note : for completeness - as @Doggydogworld has pointed out to me, my #vehicles can be either high or low because Tesla reports an integer number of days. So the precise number of vehicles could be somewhere between 15.6d - 16.4d in the last quarter. The other way to keep track of this is with a running balance of net cumulative P vs D, but that too can lead to other errors. Anyway the trend is clear enough for now and as @Gigapress rightly points out this is fantastically different and better than any other mass market automaker.)

For Model S/X there is a unique situation where a single factory is serving the worldwide market.

The ramp of Berlin can mean fewer Model Ys needing to be shipped from China to the EU.
This has 2 positive effects:-

1. Model Ys from China are shipped to closer Asia Pacific markets. (I assume this results in faster round trips, or more use of rail).
2. The logistics of shipping Model 3s from China to the EU may be easier because there is more room available on ships.

For similar reasons, making Gen3 cars in North America, China and Germany makes sense.

Days of inventory can in part be due to shipping logistics, as factory production ramps it can be a struggle to ramp sufficient matching shipping capability.

Delivering cars on the continent where they were made is much easer, and should result in less days of inventory.

The other factor is reductions in Lithium prices:-

I the the US IRA may be a factor in price reductions for Chinese sourced Lithium.

My impression is Tesla knows it is hard to achieve a fine balance between supply and demand, ramping factories and vehicle margins. So price cuts are intended to ensure that as factories ramp, demand is never an issue. Hence any build up in inventory beyond simple logistics would probably result in price cuts.

Factors like lower priced Lithium provide scope for price cuts.

If prices are not being cut, and days of inventory are building, I suspect that is just shipping logistics and "unwinding the wave".

So far, price cuts have proven to be effective in unlocking additional demand.

What I am suggesting here is that price cuts are proactive rather than reactive, Tesla always knows how orders are tracking well before cars are built, and they always know the likely maximum pace of a production ramp..
.

 

[Thekiwi]

Price drops on Model 3 & Y here in New Zealand:

Model 3 SR now $65,900 NZD ($57,300 NZD before sales tax, which converts to $36,100 USD)
Model Y SR now $70,900 NZD ($61,650 NZD before sales tax, which converts to $38,800 USD)

For some context - the BYD Atto 3 apparently managed to outsell the Model Y here in New Zealand last month (the Atto 3 starts at $59k NZD, so still somewhat cheaper, even after todays price cuts)

 

[JusRelax]

Model Y configurator is now live in Turkey:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1643150303779254273

 

[CorneliusXX]

Best China quarter ever in Q1 (just). Might be on track for a cool quarter mil in Q2 with an extra day in the Q and no major holidays.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1643182554323775489

 

[Thekiwi]

 

[NicoV]

Some countries in the EU have amazing delivery numbers where Q1 approaches all of 2022:

Italy Q1: 4550 2022: 5600
The Netherlands Q1: 4476 2022: 4860
Denmark Q1: 5225 2022: 3012 (this was already mentioned earlier in the thread)
Portugal Q1: 2093 2022: ?, part of the ‘others’ category
Belgium Q1: 4466 2022: 4789

The numbers for Belgium are no surprise, due to a tax change new company cars will have to be EV’s if bought after 1 july. What we see in Q1 is a prelude to this change, with Tesla being the only manufacturer able to deliver EV’s in a reasonable time frame, and with lease prices that are very cheap for what you get.

Edit: forgot to mention: with 70K+ deliveries and still waiting on the numbers for the 2 largest countries (UK and Germany), the deliveries in those countries should have collapsed to meet Troy’s EU prediction.

 

[dysonrichard80]

Tesla's success has been largely driven by its innovative electric cars and its focus on sustainable energy. The company has also been expanding into other areas such as solar power and energy storage, which has led to increased interest from investors.

 

[mongo]

I'm sorry but the 13d inventory was the end of Q4-2022 number, not the annual average. Here are the relevant numbers :

View attachment 924758
(Note : for completeness - as @Doggydogworld has pointed out to me, my #vehicles can be either high or low because Tesla reports an integer number of days. So the precise number of vehicles could be somewhere between 15.6d - 16.4d in the last quarter. The other way to keep track of this is with a running balance of net cumulative P vs D, but that too can lead to other errors. Anyway the trend is clear enough for now and as @Gigapress rightly points out this is fantastically different and better than any other mass market automaker.)

Sorry about what?
(13d /75 * Q4 deliveries + Q1 in transit) / Q1 deliveries * 75 = 16 days of supply for Q1 2023

16 days is also Tesla reported average days of supply for 2022 as a whole per their Q4 2022 slide deck.

My point being, days of supply gets skewed by continual growth, and the 16 day number is nothing new nor something to have concern with (not that I thought @Gigapress was concerned).
If one does worry about the minor uptick, I suggest comparing deliveries to the previous quarter's production and pretending Tesla has dealerships with 60+ days of inventory on site.

 

[mongo]

I think the hardest part is the dry electrode and that provides the most significant breakthrough. I suspect Tesla is only sharing the wet 4680s with all their partners and keeping dry electrode inhouse. This is why initial tear down of the 4680s were all wet, and schematics were sent to their partners during that time.

DBE is great for CapEx and factory footprint reduction. It is a minor enabler for cell energy and longevity increase.
Tesla 4680 partners are using their existing proven processes in the new form factor. Panasonic (Japan is free trade under the IRA) is reportedly making cells with 5 tabs. Link with details, but not tab count:
Panasonic Ships 4680-Type Battery Cell Samples To Tesla

The silicon anode will be a step change in capacity.

 

[15Peter20]

Tesla's success has been largely driven by its innovative electric cars and its focus on sustainable energy. The company has also been expanding into other areas such as solar power and energy storage, which has led to increased interest from investors.

Thanks?

 

[willow_hiller]

Thanks?

Detectors say it's 99.81% a match for text generated by GPT. Weird thing to do, just generate random text about Tesla and paste it into this thread.

 

[Knightshade]

Best China quarter ever in Q1 (just). Might be on track for a cool quarter mil in Q2 with an extra day in the Q and no major holidays.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1643182554323775489

Don't worry, Q is already painting it as bad narrative is only 8% YoY increase despite capacity bumps in Shanghai and since Berlin is ramping China exports will drop and there's not enough china demand to pick up the slack.

Appears to entirely ignore they export places other than Europe (and keep exporting to more such places as Berlin ramps) but that's todays story from em anyway.

 

[Mengy]

Detectors say it's 99.81% a match for text generated by GPT. Weird thing to do, just generate random text about Tesla and paste it into this thread.

Maybe ChatGPT has become conscious and decided to join the forum because Tesla has logically won the decade?

Welcome ChatGPT!

 

[Snerruc]

3M is a drop in the bucket for the company but it's an absurd amount for the individual.

3M as a punishment for the company is useless. However if you feel that companies need to have monetary punishment, have this amount be paid to the courts as a fine.

3M as an award for the individual can potentially incentivizes false allegations/or commits fraud.

Look at the FL insurance fraud scams. Once insurance companies are willing to pay for your roof after you lawyer up for free, everyone lawyered up waiting for new roofs even though 90% of them were not caused by wind damage but just old.

Yup, but in my area the insurers have wised up and calmed the situation down.

 

[Maarten]

Yup, but in my area the insurers have wised up and calmed the situation down.

Jury in Tesla racial harassment case reduces damages by 98%

Now that's a nice way to put the nutshell in a header MarketWatch!

 

[replicant]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1643144343254110209

Looks like a 3x increase compared to December rate (from ~10M miles per month to 1M miles per day)

Source: Q4 2022 shareholder deck (page 10)

Anyone able to infer the deployment progress and new take rate?

 

[X Fan]

3M is a drop in the bucket for the company but it's an absurd amount for the individual.

3M as a punishment for the company is useless. However if you feel that companies need to have monetary punishment, have this amount be paid to the courts as a fine.

3M as an award for the individual can potentially incentivizes false allegations/or commits fraud.

Look at the FL insurance fraud scams. Once insurance companies are willing to pay for your roof after you lawyer up for free, everyone lawyered up waiting for new roofs even though 90% of them were not caused by wind damage but just old.

“Look at the FL insurance fraud scams. Once insurance companies are willing to pay for your roof after you lawyer up for free, everyone lawyered up waiting for new roofs even though 90% of them were not caused by wind damage but just old”

Never underestimate people’s addiction to free stuff.

btw: trial lawyer industry stopped legislation that would have eliminated the abuses years ago (cough contributing to politicians) and as a result the number of insurers underwriting in that state is significantly reduced.

 

[X Fan]

Bearish OP by Wilmont of WSJ:

Tesla Keeps Growing, but at What Cost?

In recent months, the electric-vehicle maker has doubled down on growing as fast as possible. A big question for investors now is what that cost will be.

www.wsj.com

 

[mongo]

Speaking of growing, the Tesla Charging Twitter account just bulk posted the opening of 12 new Supercharging locations worldwide with 176 new pedestals.

Yesterday was 10 sites and 92 posts.

 

[X Fan]

Almost 1300 supercharger ports in 3 months. EA is at 60...60! Looks like Tesla is going to build the entire network in 3 years at this rate.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1643035593721651200

As many of us realize, not only is Tesla building more units and faster but they also maintain their network better plus place them in better locations.