Schedules for this stuff are overly optimistic almost all the time 100% of the time too, cost and schedule for these types of projects is exactly my line of work. Would friggin love to be involved in a project like this.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Don’t believe anyone who thinks elves are real
Funny thing is that I saw an article on WSJ posted just 2 days ago which stated that AMLO refused the deal. I wonder what flipped his decision?
larmor
Active Member
Here is a cheat sheet for upcoming investors day and the market:
Sell on the rumor, sell on the news, sell on the profits, sell on multiple new factories, sell on FSD miles processed, i could go on, but don't want to play all my cards at once.
Sell on the rumor, sell on the news, sell on the profits, sell on multiple new factories, sell on FSD miles processed, i could go on, but don't want to play all my cards at once.
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
The Voice of Reason,
I really enjoy how Sasha takes on the media and other short-term thinkers who jump on a single indicator to prognosticate the future... and get it wrong, time after time. Until the fates align and they finally take credit for having been a stopped clock that repeats the wrong information for long enough to be right when reality and their repeated guesstimations meet.
There are too many variables at play for any one factor to always be solely dependable when casting the bones and sacrificing chickens to gain insight upon the future.
This is a timeless work that should be viewed whenever sooth-sayers get close to bending your resolve to their narrative of poppycock.
NSFW except for headphones - he speaks in expletives which may offend tender ears in adjoining cubicles.
I really enjoy how Sasha takes on the media and other short-term thinkers who jump on a single indicator to prognosticate the future... and get it wrong, time after time. Until the fates align and they finally take credit for having been a stopped clock that repeats the wrong information for long enough to be right when reality and their repeated guesstimations meet.
There are too many variables at play for any one factor to always be solely dependable when casting the bones and sacrificing chickens to gain insight upon the future.
This is a timeless work that should be viewed whenever sooth-sayers get close to bending your resolve to their narrative of poppycock.
NSFW except for headphones - he speaks in expletives which may offend tender ears in adjoining cubicles.
Speaking of Mexico, I've seen several sources mention that Mexico's power grid instability/strength is a huge problem for building a new factory there. Some of these sources are very Tesla focused which is confusing as they should know that a good part of Tesla's business is in STABALIZING THE GRID WITH GIANT BATTERIES AND CHARGING THOSE BATTERIES WITH SOLAR.
Come on.
Come on.
Man, I'm seeing Teslas everywhere now days. Saw some MYs in 3 TV shows this weekend, 2 S's in movies, and now twice this morning in the news and not Tesla related! They're becoming the norm not an outlier anymore.
Can't wait to see CyberTrucks and Semis in background shots in a few years.
The times they are a changing my friends!
Can't wait to see CyberTrucks and Semis in background shots in a few years.
The times they are a changing my friends!
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
True that. Toss a Billion dollars worth of Megapacks on the ground and keep using and charging them while the factory is being built.
Cover the roof with solar panels, and the parking lot, and nearby open land, and by the time the factory is finished the energy supply problem is mitigated.
Also, set up water collection on the roof and on the other solar installations to make inroads on that issue as well. The Spice must flow!
At my kids school, approx 1 in 6 are teslas. Kinda makes me feel not 'special' anymore
Here's a theory if the calendar seems too tight.
Samsung could ship completed wafers to Tx and have them Assembled and Tested initially until the FAB is ready. The floor-space requirement for A/T is much larger than for FAB last I visited, but is way easier to spin up with only the tooling as the bottleneck and low standards for cleanroom needs. There are something on the order of about 20 process steps from the finished Wafer to a finished product.
A/T has significant TPT (ThroughPut Time), where 2-3 weeks is typical even today. This serves planning well to be in close proximity to point of need at the Tesla factory for JIT production. Plus, I can't see Samsung shipping wafers back to China, then to Tx again. The irony is that it's normally FABs in the US, and A/T overseas for labor savings. But TPT suffers a lot in this scenario, so no bueno. I think this is what's biting Intel now, and also bet A/T could be done in a week or less if wait or travel time is eliminate.
Hand carrying wafers on a plane, in a basic shopping bag as inconspicuous as possible, is exactly what Intel has done on Hot Lots. I met someone doing this on a plane from to/from Penang Malaysia once, which is how I know this trick. A bag of wafers can translate 10K in chips, easily. Maybe not Tesla's being slightly larger no doubt.
GhostSkater
Member
With the discounted S/X we are seeing, way more than a FSD hardware change would prompt in my opinion, I imagine there is a tiny chance of a Plaid+ being announced again, specially with 4680 production getting higher and higher
A few more things that make it more likely in no particular order
What works against it is the current 4680 energy content that we know about it, if we just took out the 18650 packs and replaced with a 4680 one from Sandy/Jordan teardown it would have lower range
But we know there is a 4680 V2 being worked on (or even other versions), if they are doing that on Kato rd and it already has higher energy density due to Silicon being added, it might do the trick
Kato becomes the production of cutting edge cells and lower rate for lower volume products and Texas crank the lower energy ones at volume for the products that energy doesn't matter and it's the volume that counts
A few more things that make it more likely in no particular order
- Cybertruck having 500 miles of range, with Plaid+ at 520 miles or more make it the flagship again, and would be the road trip king for a long time, specially with Supercharger V4
- Lucid has the Air Saphire that beats the Plaid, yeah, it's not production yet (If ever) and Lucid will go bankrupt soon, but still faster
- Porsche is rumored to be working on a tri motor response to Plaid with close to same power
- Rimac Nevera beats the Plaid because it' has higher power, they are more or less the same until Plaid hits peak power, would be awesome to have Plaid+ keep up with it at least to a higher top speed or 1/4 mile. We know Plaid motors can do more and the battery on Plaid is the limitation
- I'm almost certain the current S can support both 18650 and 4680 packs given how late they dropped the Plaid+ when 4680 ramp production didn't go as planned
What works against it is the current 4680 energy content that we know about it, if we just took out the 18650 packs and replaced with a 4680 one from Sandy/Jordan teardown it would have lower range
But we know there is a 4680 V2 being worked on (or even other versions), if they are doing that on Kato rd and it already has higher energy density due to Silicon being added, it might do the trick
Kato becomes the production of cutting edge cells and lower rate for lower volume products and Texas crank the lower energy ones at volume for the products that energy doesn't matter and it's the volume that counts
I love watching the traffic updates on the morning news. I’m in the SF Bay Area; so I know it’s concentrated; but this whole thing has ramped up fast.
And here in Fremont it’s absurd. Anecdotally approximately 1/3 of cars I see on the streets here in Fremont are now a tesla of some kind. (Oh, and btw never seen a tesla car fire on the street, not 1. In 18 years)
Shanghai South Port exports for first two months are 47k, up 11.4% YoY. This only the single port, not total exports.
https://mobile.twitter.com/bentv_sh
https://mobile.twitter.com/bentv_sh
I believe those who bought calls for this event is cashing out, I know my friend did. Everyone thinks this is a sell the news event, so i am also expecting people loading on puts today. We know what happens when everyone thinks in one direction, the opposite usually happens. I said the same for q4 earnings when everyone was 100% sure of a sell off afterwards.
Ya, I'm seeing White Tesla's (with no plates yet) in Chandler nearly everyday now - mostly Model Y.
One of my neighbors finally got a Model 3 (gray one). It's the first one ever on our street besides us. And living next to Intel, this neighborhood is oddly low tech. Many watch Fox news still so I'm the oddball here.
Tesla has faced issues such as these in Germany, China, and the US, in California, Nevada and Texas, not so much in New York. So it's probably useful to review the major water uses is automobile plants and then typical Tesla solutions:
First generically:
Water, water, everywhere in vehicle manufacturing | Automotive World
Water conservation is becoming an increasingly important issue in sustainable vehicle manufacturing, writes David Isaiah
www.automotiveworld.com
In rough order of auto plant water use intensity:
1. Surface preparation and coating; Tesla has approached this with multiple solutions. Choosing materials and processes that reduce need for preparation and coatings has been an iterative effort that has combined with cost reductions in every location.
2. Painting: This has been iterative also with the Geico Taikisha solutions reducing water usage, coatings and process control (well documented in TMC threads). Further those painting processes themselves reduce use of water, preparation and coatings, so combine to reduce cost for materials, water and labor.
3) Washing, rinsing etc: This includes a multitude of small things that are vastly reduced with increased operational cleanliness and better quality control including robots and improved cleaning techniques. To visually see all this, just visit Tesla Berlin, Austin or Shanghai then visit any other auto plant. The contrast will be informative.
4)Cooling: This includes all the industrial processes that require cooling. Tesla factory design is structured to reduce costs and it becomes evident when seeing the plant operations that Tesla uses less industrial cooling than do many others. The same factory visits make this one clear.
5) Air Conditioning and boilers: New designs are very much better designed to reduce energy use and water use. Tesla innovates here every time.
6) Energy use rather than water requires no comment in this forum. It is an obvious proven business and mission of Tesla. That, joined with the water management and reuse processes that are part of every Tesla plant shows how they always focus on every part of cost reduction, water and energy being two of the largest controllable costs.
Based on past discussions regarding Fremont expansions, Nevada, Austin, Brandenburg and Shanghai Tesla manages to always use less water and energy than has been included in first plans.
Monterrey is thus another case of Tesla preparing to solve problems that might otherwise be prohibitive. I've worked in Monterrey, so I know the local impediments regarding energy, water and infrastructure will be ones Tesla will need to solve, rather than expecting governmental support to solve these issues. They will also need continuing education and other support for the workforce; those are things Tesla is prepared for.
This one will be epic! It will be transformative in ways we really won't understand until, say, 2025 or so, even though they'll be in operation next year.
Another investment opportunity soon? Starlink IPO?
Article may be paywalled, if so my apologies...
www.barrons.com
p.s., title is misleading...
Article may be paywalled, if so my apologies...
Many Job Ads Now Require Salary Ranges. A Tipping Point Is Coming.
New laws are prompting employers to make significant changes in how they hire, pay, and manage their employees, writes Julia Pollak.
p.s., title is misleading...
Gigapress
Trying to be less wrong
Water usage info from 2021 Impact Report pg 73-74
The new platform to be revealed tomorrow might improve on this though.
The new platform to be revealed tomorrow might improve on this though.
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Sounds like Elon is going to re-building "open AI" from the ground up. Perhaps this time make sure it is OPEN and unbiased, and maintain control of the investment this time.
I wonder if that is what Elon mean when he said he will reveal something during Investor Day for all of humanity? Good use for dojo?
Edit: Youtube on this topic
I wonder if that is what Elon mean when he said he will reveal something during Investor Day for all of humanity? Good use for dojo?
Edit: Youtube on this topic
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