Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[betstarship]

Pointing out how deficient your Carrier heat pump is in cold weather is like pointing out how a Ford Lightning is a pain to charge on road trips. You can get a lot better cold-weather heat pumps from Japanese manufacturers. The design of the heat pump must be optimized for the climate it is to operate in and many are sold as "one size fits all". Also, that large nighttime temperature setback is not doing you any favors as it causes your heat pump to work harder during the coldest part of the morning. It's possible you could save energy by running the unit less hard through the night rather than having it do the heavy lifting during the most unfavorable hours for efficiency.

This does correctly point out how the US market, in particular, is ripe for disruption from a company like Tesla and is probably exactly why Elon has entertained the idea. I think it would make a great addition to Tesla's product offerings and there is plenty of room for juicy margins, even when going heat-to-head with the Japanese manufacturers. This is one reason of many why it's a fallacy to judge the value of TSLA as an investment solely as an automotive company. Their growth is limited only by their ability to hire new talent and Tesla has a huge lead in being able to do that.

The potential is limited only by time and talent. TSLA is a no-brainer way to invest spare capital for the long-term.

I mean, when I got it and even now, its not like I knew a ton about heat pumps or HVAC systems. The way it worked out was the following:

1. Ask for a quote from Lowe's primary HVAC people and they quoted me $23k for a gas HVAC system for a small house.
2. Ask my dad for a referral from a guy that worked on his home. He quoted me $10k and a heat pump for a small house.

...I went with #2 and, due to it being my dad's referral, just went with what he recommended. Carrier is regularly rated #1-3 in the US for heat pumps. I'm sure there's a lot of people that make purchasing decisions like these without doing more due diligence...in particular with home-related improvements.

The heat pump works great IMO, its just the days in the year (not months) where it has started to go below freezing. I shared here because of two reasons:

1. Heat pumps are a topic on this forum to converse about with Tesla as a future product line
2. I've read that Tesla employees do read this forum, so maybe some feedback from a heat pump owner might help their own productization efforts of their heat pump tech towards the home.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

GM up 5%

I can go through practically every stock on my watchlist and point out how the current valuation doesn't line up at all with the company's latest earnings (or even the past 3-4 earnings). TSLA is the only stock on my watchlist that actually reflects some actual correlation between the PE (51) and the earnings growth on the last quarter (58%).

It's why I don't really believe in this market rally at the moment in terms of it moving meaningfullly higher. There's just nothing to support it. That does not mean I think there's another leg lower for the entire market. The combination of dropping inflation, signs that any recession will be mild or there won't be one at all, and the impending Fed pivot all but assure the market bottomed (double bottomed in fact) back in Nov/Dec.

 

[LTC_RRR]

I'm technically retired too, though do self-employ purposefully. It took 1-2 years to figure it out.

Gave that some thought and, without a good health insurance backstop, realized I was possibly one colonoscopy away from ruinous medical bills and likely bankwuptcy

 

[Max Plaid]

After hours today will pretty much determine whether the Nasdaq goes up 7% to 13k or down 7% to 11,400. I'd put money on the latter happening...which is actually healthier for the market in the longer term. Either way, the market and TSLA especially are due for a decent size correction here in order to take a healthy next leg higher.

Some of the moves here in the marker are rather ridiculous. Microsoft is up 5% since earnings. It now has a P/E of 29......Microsoft showed a 14% DECLINE in net income for the quarter and not great guidance. The market is getting ahead of itself and the worst thing investors can do is get FOMO, go back on margin or play near term calls, get caught in a market reversal and then amplify the sell off by getting margin called

Not really, TSLA was up 3X the Nasdaq earlier and has slowly given all of that outperformance back to now trading less the Nasdaq. Classic walk down from MM's. We've seen this story before

Sorry for giving you two disagrees - why should TSLA need to "correct" downwards, it already did that in December, jumping off a cliff for no real reason

It was indexes duped first, TSLA actually resisted, then followed - at least that's how I see it comparing the candle charts

 

[2daMoon]

Gave that some thought and, without a good health insurance backstop, realized I was possibly one colonoscopy away from ruinous medical bills and likely bankwuptcy

Of course, that procedure would have to be weighed against the effect it might have on the SP, right?

I've heard talk being bantered around on this forum...

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Sorry for giving you two disagrees - why should TSLA need to "correct" downwards, it already did that in December, jumping off a cliff for no real reason

It was indexes duped first, TSLA actually resisted, then followed - at least that's how I see it comparing the candle charts

To clarify, I think TSLA will unfairly caught up a macro correction before the macro's move another leg higher for a more sustained rally in the 2nd of 2023. But I actually think the rest of the decade of the 2020's will be a rather lackluster/lost decade for the overall stock market. Some sectors will be big winners, other big losers. A good amount of tech will stagnate I think

I do not see TSLA going back to it's low's, not anywhere close. But I do think a macro retracement/correction of 7-10% will bring TSLA back down to the 150, which I actually think would be quite healthy consolidation for the stock. Probably tag the 50 day moving average at 151 and then move up to the 200 day average which could possibly serve as strong resistance for a quarter or two.

 

[chrsk]

Sorry for giving you two disagrees - why should TSLA need to "correct" downwards, it already did that in December, jumping off a cliff for no real reason

It was indexes duped first, TSLA actually resisted, then followed - at least that's how I see it comparing the candle charts

What about the recovery now then? Tesla is lagging...

The 200 call wall is in play(number of contracts is far higher than a typical week)

 

[StealthP3D]

But back then, they claimed that the downfall was due to certain purchase.

Interesting that As was obvious to us all along, in 2 months, all of that narrative has pretty much dissapeared.

I had to fix that major mistake! Insignificant spelling error left alone.

 

[trayloader]

Cybertruck sighting in the wild, complete with side mirrors:

I think anybody who sells TSLA before the cybertruck starts appearing on SU roads is really going to kick themselves. Other auto companies would give anything to generate the amount of free press this truck will generate. And when it does, a lot of it will be people who hate it, and do not understand its appeal, and wil honestly try to tell themselves that because *they* dont like it, nobody else will... such is the way of social media bubbles.

What are peoples best guesses for 2023 CT production?
I'm guessing 10,000 by the end of this year, and 100,000 next year. Expecting to see the first production in Q3, a few hundred, then rest during Q4. Thoughts?

Looks a bit weak and low. Strange how proportions change by ride height. The CT Proto was above center cap height and the wheels were out.

 

[cab]

For a while I have been thinking the CyberTruck would be the next big "kickstart" for Tesla (TSLA), but given the macro environment (recession, etc.) and impact of the recent price cuts, I now think it is all about Project Highland in the shorter term While it appears there will be some minor cosmetic redesign (bumpers, etc.) and it may get HW4 (which will be nice), most of the focus looks to be on reducing the cost to manufacture...by a non-trivial amount. This would, of course, allow Tesla to drop the price of a Model 3 Long Range to a significant low and potentially IGNITE the EV sedan market in a way that could make the original Model 3 launch seem quaint! It will all come down to just how much they can improve on a car that isn't 100% clean sheet re-design, but man this could be enormous....or I could be wrong!

We'll see!

 

[GOVA]

I had to fix that major mistake! Insignificant spelling error left alone.

No, it was not!
Many, included in here, kept saying otherwise. It was not obvious at all. Unless you meant you and I.

 

[Max Plaid]

What about the recovery now then? Tesla is lagging...

The 200 call wall is in play(number of contracts is far higher than a typical week)

Not sure I'd ever refer to 80% up in a month as "lagging"... but was ridiculously oversold beginning of the year too, it's still too low though, should be I the mid-200's IMO

 

[SOULPEDL]

Really wish Tesla sold a home heat pump.

OT, I really wish they made everything. Tired of cheap stuff to only cost more long term. Huge contributor to global waste. Didn't like it when TV/Audio repair went either. Now even those are disposable and cheap. They don't make 'em like they used to... but they better or else. Specs and brand matter.

 

[StealthP3D]

Cybertruck sighting in the wild, complete with side mirrors:

I think anybody who sells TSLA before the cybertruck starts appearing on SU roads is really going to kick themselves. Other auto companies would give anything to generate the amount of free press this truck will generate. And when it does, a lot of it will be people who hate it, and do not understand its appeal, and wil honestly try to tell themselves that because *they* dont like it, nobody else will... such is the way of social media bubbles.

What are peoples best guesses for 2023 CT production?
I'm guessing 10,000 by the end of this year, and 100,000 next year. Expecting to see the first production in Q3, a few hundred, then rest during Q4. Thoughts?

It wouldn't surprise me to see fewer than your guess this year and more next year.

But it's almost impossible to guess because it will be all about the batteries. If Tesla gets the 4680 ramp dialed in, and has plenty of raw materials, expect to be surprised to the upside. If not, expect volumes to disappoint.

 

[ElectricIAC]

It wouldn't surprise me to see fewer than your guess this year and more next year.

But it's almost impossible to guess because it will be all about the batteries. If Tesla gets the 4680 ramp dialed in, and has plenty of raw materials, expect to be surprised to the upside. If not, expect volumes to disappoint.

Who else remembers when Tesla started shipping MY before expected?

 

[2daMoon]

No, it was not!
Many, included in here, kept saying otherwise. It was not obvious at all. Unless you meant you and I.

That fact that some people don't see something in no way makes it less obvious. (cognitive dissonance)

Everyone has their unique filters for reality. This doesn't change reality, it only affects how it will be perceived by any given person.

 

[betstarship]

OT, I really wish they made everything. Tired of cheap stuff to only cost more long term. Huge contributor to global waste. Didn't like it when TV/Audio repair went either. Now even those are disposable and cheap. They don't make 'em like they used to... but they better or else. Specs and brand matter.

Rationally, a normal person would be insane to use first principles on literally every decision in their life.

 

[DarthPierce]

Who else remembers when Tesla started shipping MY before expected?

Unfortunately, that remains the exception that proves the rule of Musk companies (Making the impossible merely very late)

 

[Dikkie Dik]

It’s Alive

https://twitter.com/x/status/1621249873176567813

 

[AndrewZ]

Model Y is so heavily built on the 3 though, Cybertruck is something totally unique

We‘ve never seen a market bottom while rates were being increased, the bottom accompanies rate cuts that are designed to stimulate the economy back up after being subdued by the high rates