There’s still 7 to 8 years inflation to take into account, and my 1% net profit marging is absurdly low. It’s just an example, you can pick your own numbers.
My guess - worst case 20 Million sales $30,000 ASP (15 Million lower priced) - 10% margin.
To get to 20 Million sales per year the bulk need to be lower priced.
However if Tesla is only getting 10% margin, what is everyone else making?
IMO Tesla will get the following margin premiums:-
- Brand/ecosystem - 1%
- FSD - 1%
- In house cell production - 1%
- Manufacturing efficiency - 1%
I could put BYD at 8% due to the last 2 items.
A lot of the rest 6%,
6% margin on EVs isn't enough to stay in business. 6% margin on ICE sales is barely propped up by finance and the dealer network. And in turn the dealer network is propped up by servicing.
The we come to the fact that Tesla has other sources of income.
Current:-
- Insurance
- Fast charging
- Energy trading
- Energy sales
Likely future:- (exact timing unknown)
- FSD
- Robotaxis
- Optimus
- Dojo
- Home HVAC
- Mining raw materials processing. - might simply increase margins or result in battery cell sales.
Possible future (post 2030) - no reason to rule anything in or out, but the possibilities are almost endless.
Even if Tesla somehow stood still between now an 2030, a lot of the competition would struggle to catch up to where Tesla is now by 2030.
If anything my 4% margin premium for Tesla is probably an understatement.
Overall the chances are Tesla long term margin will be higher than 10%, we could add 4% and say 14%.
This isn't a handicap race where the slowest runner gets a head-start, it is a genuine race, where the leader has an advantage.