Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Drumheller]

A dozen pages of whining in this thread because adults still believe in the fairy tale that anything labeled "news" is automatically trustworthy and the truth. Reuters has lied repeatedly for years, but still people are indoctrinated to believe them because... why?

Tesla refuted Reuters claim the same day, but plenty of people here don't believe Tesla.

If you aren't paying for a service, you are the product being sold.

 

[replicant]

Let's cut the BS guys, we're not stupid here.

1. Tesla is not guilty until proven innocent. You can't assume BS articles with vague sources are accurate unless Tesla completely and fully denies them in wording that is perfectly satisfactory to you. That's nonsense. No news source can be trusted. None.

Tesla China's denials can't be trusted either: TMTPost—Insider of China Tech and Business. So definitely not proven innocent, but not guilty?

 

[BornToFly]

What is the Beta if TSLA is -2.2% when macro is up +1%?

(asking for a friend)

 

[Cherry Wine]

What is the Beta if TSLA is -2.2% when macro is up +1%?

(asking for a friend)

∞

 

[bkp_duke]

We were hearing from multiple unbiased sources that orders had slowed down significantly about a month or two ago. My feeling is that they cut through the backlog and haven't had incoming orders come in at the rate they expected. This isn't to say demand has cratered. It's just not what they expected. And that would make perfect sense given everything going on with the Chinese economy. I believe they are going to be left with more MIC cars in inventory than they expected at the end of the quarter because they planned to have more local deliveries than what they ended up with. Q4 is still going to be strong compared to previous quarters. They still had some backlog to work through, I believe, but that's done now. We'll see what happens going forward.

We get very little info from Tesla itself, so I have no specific information except what I can piece together through other sources. Like I said...it's a gut feeling. But I also said I'm not that concerned.

Tesla China delivers 62,493 vehicles domestically in November

Numbers recently released by the CPCA now reveal that Tesla had sold 62,493 vehicles to the domestic market.

www.teslarati.com

Bull *sugar*. Post HARD DATA or stop with the FUD.

The above, that's HARD DATA for GROWING China sales.

 

[Artful Dodger]

There is zero reasonable argument for uncertainty about this supposed production cut

So... it's just a coincidence that Boomburg says production cuts could happen "as soon as the day before the CPI Print Monday"?

/s

 

[BornToFly]

I think it is fair to say if markets go red tomorrow on PPI, TSLA tests 166. If that doesn’t hold….

 

[bballshinobi]

If earnings keep going up and you're long, then none of this stuff matters. My gut tells me they are indeed cutting China production because China demand fell off. That said, there are many other markets they should be able to expand into and I don't know if these production cuts will be lasting.

I'm buying up shares here because I just think a lot has to go wrong not to justify this share price if you're at all forward looking. If you assume Cybertruck will find new buyers and will be profitable, if you assume EV adoption is going to continue to skyrocket worldwide, and if you assume that Tesla's margins won't crater, then you're probably going to be handsomely rewarded.

To me the current atmosphere is great to slowly add to my position, which I haven't done this heavily since 2019.

Earnings keep going up but PE can keep going down.

 

[2daMoon]

This is the positive type of headline and article the public needs to see in Bloomberg or Barron's or the Dow...

Maybe Elon can buy them next and straighten them out?

 

[nativewolf]

There is zero reasonable argument for uncertainty about this supposed production cut, unless one is actually happening due to either severe supply chain constraints caused by COVID impacts or some kind of unannounced line upgrade which somehow didn't leak in advance this time, and both of those seem pretty unlikely considering how these things have worked in the past for Tesla China.

There are backlogs in countries around the world, including nearby Australia, and China just set a massive new record for domestic sales from Giga Shanghai in the first two months of a quarter. Demand issues? Come on.

Moreover, merely seven weeks ago, Elon reaffirmed in direct response to demand questions "I can't emphasize enough, we have excellent demand for Q4, and we expect to sell every car that we make for as far in the future as we can see. So, the factories are running at full speed..." Then later he said this:



I can't help but notice that zero news media outlets have even mentioned this explicit, unambiguous guidance from the earnings call. A reasonable publication would quote this comment as I have just done and then explain that the report from the "anonymous source familiar with the matter" directly contradicts it, which means either:

1) The report is false
2) Elon was blatantly committing fraud on the call
3) Plans have changed substantially in the past seven weeks for some reason

Did any journalist do this? No, not that I've seen.

Gets back to need for a PR dept, because in 30 days the world will know. Get ahead and describe a narrative.

The other option is that the plan did not change but execution of the plan failed.

Prior poster was spot on that Tesla is not going to torpedo margins so if production cuts happen something is driving it as Tesla has huge pricing power after all the price increases.

 

[SmokyPeat]

What is the Beta if TSLA is -2.2% when macro is up +1%?

(asking for a friend)

-2.2

 

[Gigapress]

We were hearing from multiple unbiased sources that orders had slowed down significantly about a month or two ago. My feeling is that they cut through the backlog and haven't had incoming orders come in at the rate they expected. This isn't to say demand has cratered. It's just not what they expected. And that would make perfect sense given everything going on with the Chinese economy. I believe they are going to be left with more MIC cars in inventory than they expected at the end of the quarter because they planned to have more local deliveries than what they ended up with. Q4 is still going to be strong compared to previous quarters. They still had some backlog to work through, I believe, but that's done now. We'll see what happens going forward.

We get very little info from Tesla itself, so I have no specific information except what I can piece together through other sources. Like I said...it's a gut feeling. But I also said I'm not that concerned.

What's the purpose of sharing a gut feeling with everyone instead of an opinion based on evidence? How does holding onto cars in inventory instead of just selling them for an end-of-quarter discount if needed (which Tesla has done for many quarters in the past) help accelerate the world's transition to sustainable energy?

 

[Optimeer]

Shipping batteries from China to USA would make those vehicles ineligible to receive any American clean vehicle credits because of the sourcing requirements for critical minerals and battery components.

Honestly, I don't understand this level of detail of the IRA yet. If the prize of the Model 3 P stays over the threshold of USD 55'000, they won't get any credits for these cars, right? So it would make sense to use batteries from CATL or LG for the Model 3 P?

 

[nativewolf]

Ok, I definitely don’t need a referee or instant replay on this one. That’s another demand share. Keep ‘em coming. I’m approaching my largest share purchase since the great demand collapse of Q1 2018?? - can’t remember if that’s the right year but those who were here know what I’m talking about.

It is a great time to buy. The semi is going to rock the trucking world. The implication that Reno is just going to just support Semi production is huge and given no weight by investors.

 

[replicant]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1600903418348179457

 

[StealthP3D]

That advice by Stealth has been the gold standard for decades. Also, keeping a substantial part of your assets in dividend stocks helps keep you afloat during times like this. I’m not sure why dividends have fallen in bad repute lately. They have given me a good life for the past 35 years. They also allow me to be slightly bemused by the current thrashings on this site.

I own a few dividend stocks now that I'm approaching traditional retirement age, but have never been a huge fan of them. As a growth investor for the last 30+ years, I have found it more capital efficient to have a couple of years living expenses in cash, and the rest invested in growth, while periodically selling small bits of highly appreciated stock to fund lifestyle expenses after I retired. This only works out better if you generally pick good growth stocks. My investment style weighs heavily on not picking highly speculative or dead-end growth stocks.

If an extended downturn ever happened, and I wanted to continue spending money at my normal rates, I would sell off the dividend stocks to fund my lifestyle, based on the principle that they are probably less under-valued than the high growth stocks which tend to get hammered harder during downturns. So far that has never been necessary.

I've never understood people's fixation on "income", once I saw how easy it was to generate outsized returns with the careful picking of growth stocks and compounding returns. If you have a lot more assets than you spend, you don't need traditional income, capital gains can substitute. Relying on dividend bearing stocks for living expenses greatly reduces the amount of capital you have available to invest in growth.

The secret is to not live off your capital gains too soon in the process. Keep working or cut lifestyle expenses instead. Too many investors grow their lifestyle expenses too fast relative to their actual financial position when they have their first successes with growth stocks. The secret is to continue to re-invest (or stay invested) so you can compound your returns. It won't be too long before you no longer care about income, and you can periodically sell off portions of your gains without substantially reducing your position. If you start doing that too soon, to fund ballooning lifestyle expenses, you will never get there.

 

[Moon Buggy]

Tesla China delivers 62,493 vehicles domestically in November

Numbers recently released by the CPCA now reveal that Tesla had sold 62,493 vehicles to the domestic market.

www.teslarati.com

Bull *sugar*. Post HARD DATA or stop with the FUD.

The above, that's HARD DATA for GROWING China sales.

I'm not going to get into a whole thing with you or anyone here. Q4 should be a record sales quarter but that doesn't mean it's as high as they thought it would be. Literally just read data that said across the country sales were down month over month in October and November for the first time since 2008. It's a country wide issue that will affect Tesla and everyone else.

I'm not FUD. I'm literally buying shares.

 

[Max Plaid]

Wowsers... that quicksilver is damn beautiful. You Europeans are so lucky!

I took these at my local Tesla showroom on Wednesday, it's rather pretty... no delivery window for the wife's yet, assuming March-ish

 

[Gigapress]

Gets back to need for a PR dept, because in 30 days the world will know. Get ahead and describe a narrative.

How would a PR dept help accelerate the world's transition to sustainable energy?

Prior poster was spot on that Tesla is not going to torpedo margins so if production cuts happen something is driving it as Tesla has huge pricing power after all the price increases.

What evidence do you have to support this belief that Tesla wouldn't just reduce margins if needed, in light of this comment from Tesla's CEO?

"we are not reducing our production in any meaningful way, recession or no recession."​

​

How would voluntary production cuts help accelerate the world's transition to sustainable energy?

 

[Moon Buggy]

What's the purpose of sharing a gut feeling with everyone instead of an opinion based on evidence? How does holding onto cars in inventory instead of just selling them for an end-of-quarter discount if needed (which Tesla has done for many quarters in the past) help accelerate the world's transition to sustainable energy?

Was a small part of a pro Tesla post that was maybe equally pointless, but since when has that mattered. We're on page 19109 here.