Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[traxila]

The entire market dropped a bit - probably due to two stray Russian missiles hitting Poland. This might make everyone nervous a bit. I suspect it will be good medium and long term, as NATO is now more likely to send higher tech/longer range weapons to Ukraine, speeding up the end of the war/Russian defeat.

Thanks for this!

Allowed me to make the right moves. I think.

All the best!

 

[LTC_RRR]

Waymo and Cruise are already running robotaxi fleets in multiple American states, which strongly suggests that the legal and risk management implications are not only tractable but have already been more or less sorted out, at least in California where Tesla Network would most likely be rolled out first.

Furthermore, the absence of any commentary from Tesla on this supposed issue also would seem to indicate it’s not a big deal. Tesla has guided for robotaxis to be worth far more than the current automotive business. It would be negligent and borderline fraudulent for them not to disclose such risks, wouldn’t it? That would be extremely material information for investors.

AAA estimates insurance premiums cost the average American driver $1,588 per year per car (link) with 15k miles per year of driving. That’s approximately $0.10/mile. In urban areas, car insurance tends to be more expensive and that’s where robotaxis would be primarily operating for many years. Let’s conservatively go with $0.30/mile to align with the extreme costs seen in urban zones in e.g. Florida or New York.

The primary cost for car insurance companies is payouts for claims. According to data compiled by S&P Global the average loss ratio (claims expenses divided by premium revenue) is usually around 65%. In other words $0.20 out of our $0.30/mi estimate is for claims costs.

View attachment 874851

Triple-I Blog | Personal Auto Insurers’ Losses Keep RisingDue to Multiple Factors

10x or more reduction in incidents is required by the Master Plan for robotaxi deployment. Even if for some reason courts apply a double standard for collision liability that penalizes autonomous driving systems for errors more than human drivers, Tesla’s self-insurance would still come out ahead as long as the penalty is less than 10x (or whatever >10x safety improvement Tesla ends up actually achieving).

Robotaxi self-insurance also will eliminate all traditional insurance costs for customer acquisition, marketing, and fraud, which is most of the remaining cost structure.

For example, suppose Tesla unfairly has to pay out 5x more for damages compared to current baseline averages. Even then:

$0.20/mi * 5 / 10 = $0.10/mi claims cost burden​

​

Robotaxis will probably earn at least $0.50/mi gross profit after accounting for all other costs except insurance, so $0.10/mile insurance cost can easily be absorbed. Tesla conservatively estimated $0.65/mi in 2019.

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Your stated goal for being here is to be “contrarian” and to provide desperately needed negativity to counter unrelenting optimism right? Not, you know, accuracy?

I am hopeful that the rosiest of scenarios for the Robotaxi prevail. After all, I would hate to be delayed in a taxi ride while a cop tries to write out the ticket for speeding in a school zone or the car has to wait out a moderate rain storm. (I have regularly encountered both with the latest FSD version: never reduces speed in an active school zone, even trying to pass up the slower cars which are driven by your average driver; FSD self-disables whenever the rain causes the wipers to increase their speed but does not stop your average driver from continuing).

 

[thesmokingman]

Looks like there's quite some reaction to the Ruskies air strike which has a huge spread and some entered Poland and killed two. Oil is reacting....

Ukraine updates: Kyiv, other cities hit by missiles – DW – 11/15/2022

Dozens of missiles struck the Ukrainian capital Kyiv and other cities, hitting critical infrastructure and knocking out power. This came after Zelenskyy delivered a video address at the G20 summit. DW has the latest.

www.dw.com

 

[SmokyPeat]

The entire market dropped a bit - probably due to two stray Russian missiles hitting Poland. This might make everyone nervous a bit. I suspect it will be good medium and long term, as NATO is now more likely to send higher tech/longer range weapons to Ukraine, speeding up the end of the war/Russian defeat.

Oh damn, I was wondering what happened. Thought maybe Powell got in front of a microphone. The Rooskies screwed up bad on that one.

 

[elasalle]

Are the Oligarchs short the market and could no longer depend on CPI, PPI?

 

[Ogre]

I can't tell if this is a serious post or sarcasm, can someone enlighten me please?

Sercasm. Poster thinks it’s serious, but its impossible to read it as other than parody.

Maybe Parodious is a better word.

 

[Max Plaid]

Well I guess Spy got rejected from critical resistance and vix is spiking like crazy. Didn't people say TA is fake news? Even the crashing 10 year can't seem to break resistance.

Gave the disagree because the market pull-back was clearly due to the Russian missile-strike in Poland, which potentially ups the stakes considerably... nothing to do with TA (on this occasion at least)

 

[Singuy]

Gave the disagree because the market pull-back was clearly due to the Russian missile-strike in Poland, which potentially ups the stakes considerably... nothing to do with TA (on this occasion at least)

And yet big news always happened around support and resistance. Spy was 399 right before the PPI report today in AH.

 

[Knightshade]

If he starts sleeping on the Twitter floor 3hours a day for the subscription hell of Twitter then I will agree that being part time might hurt TSLA but as far as I know he is managing Twitter when he is in the toilet judging by the quality and réflexion of Elon’s tweets.

Elon Musk claims he’s sleeping at Twitter’s San Francisco HQ ‘until org is fixed’

The Tesla and SpaceX boss has spoken in the past about his workaholic living habits

www.independent.co.uk

 

[Beltsbear]

*Laughs in Jim Cramer*

Non-mechanical stuff in general isn't. I remember him gushing over a PCB saying that it was like something you'd only see in ultra secret militarry hardware... my thought was "I guess he's never seen a video card." It probably had a higher component density and better layout than traditional automotive stuff.... but it was pretty tame for anybody who knows electronics.

He's also made a number of wrong suppositions about electrical components and their function.

From a mechanical manufacuring standpoint, he undoubtedly knows his stuff. For batteries and electronics, not so much... it's been good to see him have other folks in the shop lead some teardown discussions.

The power density and conservation of components and connectors is way ahead of video cards. It really is next next level stuff for this kind of circuit board. He is right about how advanced it is even if he makes a few mistakes. The next closest might be Hyundai. GM is laughable with the Bolt but that is their oldest production design.

 

[ZeApelido]

And yet big news always happened around support and resistance. Spy was 399 right before the PPI report today in AH.

Listen I love conspiracy theories as much as anyone, but if you are saying that Putin is sitting in a darked out room, watching some dude named Panda's youtube videos about TA, and flipping the switch to send a missile when he sees a support level being bounced off...





I'm totally believing it.

 

[Singuy]

Listen I love conspiracy theories as much as anyone, but if you are saying that Putin is sitting in a darked out room, watching some dude named Panda's youtube videos about TA, and flipping the switch to send a missile when he sees a support level being bounced off...





I'm totally believing it.

Nope, just saying the market was trying to find a way to not break through the 400 barrier and even due to diving rates and a good PPI, the market was still struggling up to the point of the missile when it finally crashed. If TA isn't a thing, then who cares about 400, it's just a number. Resistance and support shouldn't exist.

I'm not saying the market predicted a missile. I'm just saying if the good news doesn't break the 400 barrier, then the market is just waiting for bad news to happen which given enough time, something will happen.

 

[Ogre]

Listen I love conspiracy theories as much as anyone, but if you are saying that Putin is sitting in a darked out room, watching some dude named Panda's youtube videos about TA, and flipping the switch to send a missile when he sees a support level being bounced off...





I'm totally believing it.

I’m pretty sure the only YouTube channel Putin watches is some sort of weird goatse dot cx reactions video stream. (I don’t know if this exists…. if you don’t get the reference. DO NOT SEARCH FOR IT).

 

[traxila]

 

[betstarship]

It legitimately kinda hurts (in a good way) donating six digits with the share price at these levels.

 

[Mengy]

TSLA is up 1.8% today. If we just do that for 45 consecutive trading days we'll be right back at our ATH!

 

[scaesare]

The power density and conservation of components and connectors is way ahead of video cards. It really is next next level stuff for this kind of circuit board. He is right about how advanced it is even if he makes a few mistakes. The next closest might be Hyundai. GM is laughable with the Bolt but that is their oldest production design.

No doubt Tesla is way ahead of automotive stuff... alluded to that in my post.

But this was an Autoline show a few years back, and I think it was before they even rolled their own FSD chip. He was gushing about SMD components and chips with standard lead/trace spacing.

He actually was talking about the large number of components on the board when, as you point out, package/connector count reduction is the indicator of superior design and increased component sophistication where you can't see it (i.e. inside a CPU package). Don't know that he really gets the superiority of stuff like Silicon Carbide for power electronics....

 

[betstarship]

It legitimately kinda hurts (in a good way) donating six digits with the share price at these levels.

Sorry, I was pinching myself. That's why it hurt...so good.

Happy Holidays!

 

[hobbes]

Sawyer Merritt (@SawyerMerritt)

NEWS: @Tesla Chair Robyn Denholm said today Tesla might produce 100 Semi trucks this year. https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/tesla-chair-testifies-in-elon-musks-compensation-trial-in-delaware-11668526771

nitter.cz

 

[Nocturnal]

Weird AH spikes.