Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Motor Mouth]

Wireless energy transfer in space and globally. Should be able to happen, ESA is thinking about it now. Was SpaceX really just launching millions of satellites at a non zero cost so we could watch cat videos on YouTube?
Satellite power grid would beam energy around the globe just like dataSatellite power grid would beam energy around the globe just like data

Bringing Nicola's fundamental vision to reality? I wouldn't put it past Elon for this to be the goal.

 

[Tony73]

Someone did the calculation and it's 650kwh pack for the long range, much lower than the 1000kwh we were predicting.

650kwh for 500 miles of EPA range at 82,000 pounds gross weight is not physically possible. Even at 0.25 Cd and unheard of levels of rolling friction. 900 kWh would be an incredible achievement. Tesla semi will be the most efficient big rig on the road by far but let’s not get carried away

 

[Tony73]

Bringing Nicola's fundamental vision to reality? I wouldn't put it past Elon for this to be the goal.

Elon has shut down this idea many times in the past. Power satellites also need to be In very high orbit. Starlinks are too low.

 

[Singuy]

650kwh for 500 miles of EPA range at 82,000 pounds gross weight is not physically possible. Even at 0.2 Cd and unheard levels of rolling friction. 900 kWh would be an incredible achievement

Yeah trying to figure put who this guy is and why we should trust him.

 

[OrthoSurg]

What’s up with that buying spike

 

[KBF]

Yes because OPEC+ is making sure that EVs are relevant. Just paid $6.99 for gas in San Deigo the past week. Years ago, TMCers and Tesla forum people felt that gas price was not in the equation for model S. But now at this price point and M3 and MY it sure is. Really all car manufacturers need to pivot to EVs since people's car purchas choices are not all emotional but rational and price elevation of gas shifts the cost equation significantly. There will be no real demand problem until one or a few manufacturers can get to combined 75 million new cars per year.

Just found out my FIL, who was bashing EV's just 6 months ago (to my wife's face... He knows we've been driving Tesla's and invested in it for the past 10 years... She wasn't impressed), just put in a reservation for an F150 Lightning. Turns out he changed his Anti-EV tune when his new ICE truck was costing $200 CAD to fill up...

As people across the world are starting to really feel the effects of inflation, they are starting to look at TCO. I have loved not caring what gas prices were over the past decade...
One less stress factor due to dependence on mega corps is healthy.

I guess high gas prices aren't as big of a deal to TSLA SP right now because we don't have a demand problem (but I guess high demand = ability to keep margins high).

Edit: and SP is far more emotional than it is rational anyway - I've stopped expecting reason and facts to be a primary driver of short term SP, that's also less stressful...

 

[traxila]

Or will we see price increases in Q1 to offset that cash? If the economy isn't in the toilet I don't think that's impossible.

There have been steady price increases for a while. Think the 8K is mostly incorporated into the deal. Not that they had any other way of choking off demand the past year or so, but Tesla usually has some good foresight and planning on pricing. EM has even said that prices are 'embarrassingly' high, although not embarrassing for us stockholders!

I doubt he wants to go on record raising prices in the midst of what may be a recession.

First - S and X deliveries should be unaffected, they don't qualify for the credit. Same as with Model 3 (SR has wrong battery, LR is a bit of an unknown but currently too expensive, and P is way too expensive). That leaves the Y. There are a lot of people deferring to Q1 (my BIL is one of them). But there are a lot of people that simply won't ever qualify for the tax credit due to income, and those people will get bumped up the list and get their orders sooner than everyone else.

I don't really suspect waiting for Q1 to be a material impact to Tesla due to the above.

Plus, we could always ship a crap-ton of cars up to Canada for Q4, since the tax credit doesn't affect those buyers.

I think this is the best bet. Soak the rich and ship to Canada!

Based on your points about the M3, this email is a bit of a mystery.

"Vehicle Availability​

This vehicle is part of a limited supply expected to be built and available for delivery this November or December. By placing this order, you are agreeing to take delivery before the end of 2022 calendar year. If Tesla is not able to build a vehicle for your order in 2022, you may be eligible for a refund."

I got it as well, BTW, and the cars are new MS LRs and priced at 58K With the cutoff at 55K, what does this mean then? Why are they doing this? An attempt to streamline deliveries and logistics dealing with people who are eager for the cars? Don't know.

Haven’t there been price increases through the year and long wait times in North America? I’m thinking for a lot of people taking delivery this year locked in their car at lower prices. If they were to cancel now they would have to wait for their car even longer and they might not save too much money.

If Tesla bounces their reservation to the new price, this would apply. The OP did say in a follow up post that this happened to them.

Nobody, since the critical minerals requirement is likely not satisfied; and, depending on pack sourcing, that isn't in play either.
All pending Treasury Secretary guidance.

Plus the stick of order cancelation/ reset to end of the line current pricing.

The general populace only knows that there are BEV credits to be had next year, if they know anything at all. Most people know absolutely nothing about mineral requirements or pack sourcing.

The reset pricing and to the end of the line should give good incentives.

My guess is a leasing special. The residual is sooo high, they could really make a one time really attractive monthly payment.

Another lever to perhaps pull.

 

[Artful Dodger]

The absolutely lowest I could come up with for a fully loaded semi is 1.6 kWh/mile (half aero half rolling). If I wasn't pessistic, 500 mile range needs to be at least 800kWh.

Haha, yeah, 650KWh/500mi = 1.3 KWh/mi. I wonder if there's less 'pepsi' and more 'frito lay' in those wagons... That's gotta be at 60 mph. Or maybe routes from the Modesto hub are more urban (less interstate?).

No matter! Build the damn thing, and ship it already. The time has come!

Cheers!

P.S. This 650 KWh pack size also reveals that MegaCharger is capable of at least 900 KW sustained charging rate. 650*0.7*2

 

[woodisgood]

What’s up with that buying spike

Whole market bidding now

 

[elasalle]

Amazon trying to prop up Rivian today?

Ford building battery factories with RIVN stake

 

[bkp_duke]

What’s up with that buying spike

SSSSHHHHHHH.

 

[OrthoSurg]

SSSSHHHHHHH.

First time I feel a quarter bullish

 

[Tony73]

Haha, yeah, 650KWh/500mi = 1.3 KWh/mi. I wonder if there's less 'pepsi' and more 'frito lay' in those wagons... That's gotta be at 60 mph. Or maybe routes from the Modesto hub are more urban (less interstate?).

No matter! Build the damn thing, and ship it already. The time has come!

Cheers!

P.S. This 650 KWh pack size also reveals that MegaCharger is capable of at least 900 KW sustained charging rate. 650*0.7*2

There’s a lot of work going on with low resistance tires and bearings. Pair that with active wind resistance suppression and radical super aerodynamic design, 800kwh for 500 miles will happen one day.

 

[Ogre]

Someone did the calculation and it's 650kwh pack for the long range, much lower than the 1000kwh we were predicting.

This would be impressive.

Since it's 2170 based, I'm wondering if perhaps the bigger packs aren't going to deliver the full 500 miles range yet. Maybe that doesn't happen until we get 4680 based trucks on the road?

This feels like an interim solution until they get 4680 production online. This facility isn't set up to ramp up to large scale either. Feels almost like they want to get a few out the door to prove the concept in customer hands and when larger scale production and 4680 production is online, they will deliver the full product.

Would be super impressed if they managed to get that kind of range out of a 650 kWh pack though.

 

[Accident]

Tesla delivered over 20k cars in Germany in Q3. That's 40% higher than the previous record in Q1, and a 65% increase YoY

 

[Artful Dodger]

Wireless energy transfer in space and globally. Should be able to happen, ESA is thinking about it now. Was SpaceX really just launching millions of satellites at a non zero cost so we could watch cat videos on YouTube?
Satellite power grid would beam energy around the globe just like dataSatellite power grid would beam energy around the globe just like data

Haha, "long-range" wireless transfer has now been extended to 16m (50 feet) In the laboratory. After which it's efficency drops precipitously.

Eid, A., Hester, J., & Tentzeris, M. M. (2022, March). Extending the Range of 5G Energy Transfer: Towards the Wireless Power Grid. In 2022 16th European Conference on Antennas and Propagation (EuCAP) (pp. 1-4). IEEE.​

P.S. Haha "flip.it"

 

[BornToFly]

Jeeze the market is Bipolar today! Up - down - up - down....

 

[Artful Dodger]

So where are these 3's coming from, GigaAustin?

Fremont. There are no 3s made in Austin, only Ys.

(watch for the sign. then all prisoners will be released).

 

[wnorris]

Jeeze the market is Bipolar today! Up - down - up - down....

Fed's Brainard's speech this afternoon was viewed as dovish causing the spike up in markets.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1579526419960328192

 

[thesmokingman]

Lmao, CNBC being CNBC giving Gordo his soapbox again.