Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[mercer2]

I don’t get it, Tesla good news and price dips….

Tesla's China-Made Deliveries Hit Record. But Wholesale Numbers Don't Matter.

Tesla's China-made vehicle vehicles set a record in September following an upgrade of the company's Shanghai plant earlier this year.

www.barrons.com

TSLA dn -1.6% in New York to $219.50
(hedgies aren't going to give up with the 52-wk low so close)

 

[Artful Dodger]

I don’t get it, Tesla good news and price dips….

TSLA is heavily manipulated. Especially when there's plenty of oil $$$ to splash around.

 

[Cobbler]

Wanna know more about Chinese competitors (vs Tesla) and how it'll do in Europe/Germany?
Watch this very nice detailed review of the NIO ET7. Software/Navigation/consumption/... naaahhh.. no competition. Also interesting how financing/leasing will be presented. Pay special attention to NOMI

 

[lascavarian]

You don't have to seal it up, just the pack and motors. That's already mostly done.

My comments. my Interest is about SS body. With million mile motor kit, there must be a very durable corrosion resistant body. The floating comments reflect some success with the SS body so .

my worry points are the wiper arm and some high maintenance fragile suspension. I have hope that Optimus actuator engineering has helped the wiper issue but since it has not been shown it remains an open and significant question IMO.

Dont care about 4 wheel steering much. Really seems more unnecessary maintenance and accelerated tire wear possibly.

All that said, I want the truck and the new press coming is a bullish sign. I understand Starship takes precedence of course but once in orbit, bring on the truck

Looks like it might be another buying opportunity today.

 

[EVMeister]

Looks like it might be another buying opportunity today.

Kind of sick of them now. Really shook the cushions to buy some shares last week, now I've got no funds left to buy with.

 

[mercer2]

With oil prices up and cpi data coming on Wednesday, hard to see green this week.

 

[Nolimits]

Wanna know more about Chinese competitors (vs Tesla) and how it'll do in Europe/Germany?
Watch this very nice detailed review of the NIO ET7. Software/Navigation/consumption/... naaahhh.. no competition. Also interesting how financing/leasing will be presented. Pay special attention to NOMI

Man that’s nice. The software looks quick and responsive too. Great job

 

[lascavarian]

CNBC discussing Tesla China September numbers & autos more generally next half hour for those interested.

Edit, favorable comment on Tesla as China sales up 8%. Rivian comments taking up more time.

 

[Mengy]

I went to the store today looking for Apple fritter pop-tarts… didn’t find any!! This place is full of mis-information.

I still have a few left, want me to drive them down to you? I could see Giga Austin while I'm there as well!

 

[verystandard]

To makes everyone feels better about Tesla premarket price, at least people still remembers Rivian's recalled today....at least for now

 

[AudubonB]

That's impressive. What would be 10X more impressive is if you could list just three reasons why you doubt the CT will be a raging success with unbridled demand for years to come. Because all I'm hearing so far sounds like unsupported doubt of the Cybertrucks success and derision of anyone with a different opinion. Will there be faults? Certainly, every new vehicle has them. Will they be fatal? I have no reason to believe they will. Please share yours.

I have not written anything of the sort. You could not be more incorrect. I, more than you or anyone else here, need a well-performing, capable and dependable truck, and I fervently hope the CT is up to it. The Denali Highway, for all its well-deserved storied fame as one of the world’s top “must drive” roads, is a hellish car-eater of a track and it is hundreds of miles to a service center. There is very good reason rental agencies refuse to let their vehicles on it.
What I HAVE written is just the opposite:
Posters here, despite not quarters but years of delays for the CT’s rollout and without development progress having been revealed by Tesla, glorify it as the ne plus ultra of automobiles.

It is that unsubstantiated exaltation that I deplore.

 

[Singuy]

Just a thought, but since Q2 was bad due to Covid shutdown, Tesla might have been better off not trying to undo the wave in Q3.
Ya Elon doesn't care about stock price and short term don't matter, but it would have done all investors lots of good if we did not have 2 quarters of perceived underperformance (regardless of what the reason was).

Also it's not just like analysts are wrong, Tesla has guided for 50% yearly growth -- I think it is out of the question now?

Tesla probably had no choice. The reason given most people think it's due to q3 number production having logistic issues at 365k having trouble being delivered. It's actually about the much harder q4 numbers Tesla logistics is trying to solve and must start in q3.

Tesla was 90k cars behind schedule due to q2, so lots of work needs to be done to somehow make it up q4.

 

[Chenkers]

With oil prices up and cpi data coming on Wednesday, hard to see green this week.

The release of September CPI will be on Thursday October 13th, not Wednesday.

Schedule of Releases for the Consumer Price Index

 

[unk45]

I am delighted, entranced and supremely enthusiastic about the CT's exoskeleton and I fully believe it will be a game changer. At the same time, I also understand it has absolutely zero ramifications on how well or how poorly a suspension will perform.

This post spawned one my my rare disagrees with you. That is because body/chassis rigidity has huge consequences for suspension design. I am not an engineer, so I may not explain this properly, but luckily there are copious citations available. Here is a truck example:

https://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.1001.5950&rep=rep1&type=pdf

and another:

Chassis Tuning: Vehicle Torsional Rigidity Explained

Does a stiff chassis help a car go fast? Come find the answers about torsional stiffness or rigidity and its importance on the street and the track.

dsportmag.com

A specific Cybertruck thought is that the exceedingly high torsional rigidity due to the exoskeleton helps to allow very long suspension travel, among other things.

in short:
‘It has absolutely enormous ramifications on how well or how poorly a suspension will perform.’

 

[elasalle]

RBC cut price target from 367 to 340 per snippet in CNBC article

I don’t get it, Tesla good news and price dips….

Tesla's China-Made Deliveries Hit Record. But Wholesale Numbers Don't Matter.

Tesla's China-made vehicle vehicles set a record in September following an upgrade of the company's Shanghai plant earlier this year.

www.barrons.com

 

[JRP3]

4680 - I think Tesla seems to have figured out how to ramp the 4680 cells because they are now shipping the Semi on Dec 1st. I don’t think they would do that unless they had the battery supply for it. These Semis need 4680 cells.

We've had reports of the test Semis performing as designed with 2170 cells. Semis won't use structural packs so I don't think they require 4680 cells in the short term.

 

[jw934]

(hedgies aren't going to give up with the 52-wk low so close)

For my friends who won’t accept that explanation, a more acceptable explanation could be :

Since the 52 week low 206.86 is only 13 dollars away, if many buyers are setting their bids at or below that price, and there are margin call sellers forced to sell their shares at any price, then after eating through low volume bids, the stock price will naturally gravitate towards $206.86.

Same goes for any price action that aligns with any widely followed chart predictions.

 

[cricketman]

Kind of sick of them now. Really shook the cushions to buy some shares last week, now I've got no funds left to buy with.

I have been super lucky. I sold my company, the deal closed on Monday and the funds came through on Tuesday.

So last week I bought 27,000 new TSLA shares at an average of $243. So quite a discount from the $300 the share price was a couple of weeks earlier when I thought the deal would close.

If it goes any lower, I will potentially get 13,000 more, meaning I would have doubled my position from 40,000 to 80,000 TSLA shares. Then I am done!

Very conservatively, we should get to $1,000 per share within 3 years, and $3,000 by 2030. Could be as much as $10,000 per share if Tesla solves battery bottlenecks and FSB. We will probably reap any robot related gains after 2030.

 

[elasalle]

Hasn’t the market realized that Ruski said nuclear is off the table for now?

 

[The Accountant]

CNBC discussing Tesla China September numbers & autos more generally next half hour for those interested.

Edit, favorable comment on Tesla as China sales up 8%. Rivian comments taking up more time.

Usually when CNBC reports results they compare to prior year . . . except for Tesla, where they compare to the preceding month (e.g. Sep was 8% higher than Aug).
Here is the fact:
After the downtime in July for the Model 3 & Y line upgrades, wholesale sales are up 60% over prior year in Shanghai:

P.S. When production is reported later this month, growth will likely be higher than 60%.