Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Nocturnal]

Why would this suggest the transition should be difficult and costly for GM and Ford? It looks like they can lose as much money as they like building EVs, because they'll make it up financing them.

There must be more that we aren't seeing there. With margins that high how would other banks not undercut those loans? In the past when I've shopped for a car I found that dealer loans were competitive or better than third party banks. Just think of all the times GM or Ford offered literally 0% interest rate loans.

 

[jeewee3000]

I'm a little concerned here. If Cruise keeps having accidents regularly it could create a backlash against autonomy in general.

Stop fear mongering. You put it as if Cruise is reporting massive accidents. And as if the media/authorities are examining Cruise for it.

Neither is true.

And even if it were true, data is king and Tesla will be able to report stellar data to show the viability of FSD in due time. Whatever some anonymous redditor writes will have no impact. Period.

 

[Electroman]

Are you aware of anywhere that lists locations that include PowerPacks?

Not that I am aware of... do you ?

 

[mongo]

@unk45 who knows a bit about the auto financing business is not a fan of Tesla launching it's own financing arm. But when I look at the margins that Ford and GM show, I wonder why it would not be a good idea. Perhaps what we are missing are huge write-offs not reflected in the numbers that occur during each market down cycle. Maybe @unk45 can make the case again on why its not a good idea despite seeing F & GM huge margins.

With those being operating margins on auto loans (and maybe other properties), they have a large pool of assets making 6% or whatever APR balanced against the underlying debt rate and the size of the team running it.

Note: this is a critical aspect. Financing is interest delta against sales price while reinvestment is gains against gross profit. So, for Tesla with high profits per car, financing is less advantageous.

Imagine a $50k car with 0 profit, it generates no return if sold. However, put a 6% loan on it and revenue is $3k first year. With a 3% underlying line of credit and $500 in overhead, that is $1k in profit for a 33% operating margin.

Now look at Tesla with insane profit per car and things to due with the cash...

 

[GOVA]

Interesting take from Solving the Money Problem on the 'Inflation reduction act', Tesla vs others future with comments from untie Cathy included. I like him calling GM - government motors.

 

[jw934]

There must be more that we aren't seeing there. With margins that high how would other banks not undercut those loans? In the past when I've shopped for a car I found that dealer loans were competitive or better than third party banks. Just think of all the times GM or Ford offered literally 0% interest rate loans.

One data point . . .

I just put in an order for a MY LR last week via a loan from Tesla. Tesla sent out my loan application to (I recall) 5 Canadian banks and offered me the best quoted rate. My offer was for 5.9%.

Surely Tesla can profit more from that v.s. whatever interest rate they are receiving on their billions.
And once Tesla gets accredited, they can do fractional reserve banking to increase profit.

 

[unk45]

@unk45 who knows a bit about the auto financing business is not a fan of Tesla launching it's own financing arm. But when I look at the margins that Ford and GM show, I wonder why it would not be a good idea. Perhaps what we are missing are huge write-offs not reflected in the numbers that occur during each market down cycle. Maybe @unk45 can make the case again on why its not a good idea despite seeing F & GM huge margins.

There were sound arguments for captives, mostly based on the ability to offer preferential terms to customers. Now competitive loan terms are readily available in most countries. Thenprimary service if a captive to dealers is allowing generous ability to markup nearly every part to customers. Even seemingly knowledgeable people get ripped off by F&I. Tesla does not do that.

Leases are different since lease termination used cars are highly profitable. Often, including especially Tesla, have outsized profits from lease termination sales. One reason Tesla chose to discontinue lessor purchase option at residual Value. Tesla originates leases and securitized them. They don’t need a captive to do that.

The most profitable part of most captives is the least visible: dealer floor planning and facilities finance. Tesla has no dealers, hence no captive dealer finance.

In many countries there are banks, cooperatives (e.g. Credit Unions, Sparkassen) and finance companies active in some or all of these areas. Usually they are highly competitive.

Overall captives tend to show high profitability driven largely through formal subvention or less formal cost absorption. Most people nit directly involved in captive financial management do not actually understand these subsidies. Even a shaky OEM will move mountains to protect its captive.

Insurance is completely different. There Tesla has competitive advantage in information.

Anybody who looks at the surface of captives thinks they are great. They are, for dealers. They are, for F&I. The securitized assets are excellent for institutional investors.

For Tesla, there is no point. Above all, Tesla customers are highly creditworthy, so have no need for the F&I ‘get ‘em done’ practices.

 

[Speedr117]

Article saying Tesla is still scaling up dry cathode process (which I think we all already know):

Insight: Inside Tesla's drive to keep Musk's battery promise

The secret behind Elon Musk's goal of selling 20 million Tesla's a year by 2030 lies in its pioneering battery technology.

www.reuters.com

The pricing/savings quoted in the article are great though!

 

[NicoV]

Putin joins Tesla in its mission to accelerate the EU’s transition to sustainable energy: demand for solar panels, heat pumps and isolation through the roof. E.g. quote requests for solar panels are now 10x what it was a year ago in Flanders:

Zonnepanelen om uw energiefactuur te drukken? Geduld tot mei

Vlaanderen bereidt zich voor op een winter met historisch hoge energieprijzen, en dat zullen bouwbedrijven en installateurs van zonnepanelen en warmtepompen geweten hebben. ‘De vraag is vertienvoudigd’, klinkt het.

www.standaard.be

Wait times until april/may are normal. Unfortunately there is a big shortage of inverters for solars panels because EV’s also need these. Environment wise it is also unfortunate that there is a big demand for fire wood and pellets, but there is none available. Partially because the import from Belarus stopped.

 

[scaesare]

Not that I am aware of... do you ?

No... I was hoping supercharge.info might have it, but I don't see it.

Given Elon was talking about some locations, I wonder if this may be implemented, if at least partially?

 

[UkNorthampton]

UK: dealer deals email. Gives indication of Tesla's competitors discounts. September is a BUSY month for sales in UK as number plates change which can increase resale values. I think the supply squeeze is ending, OEMs are competing. Tesla should have a great month if ships arrive

A few EVs with discounts, Jaguar I-Pace at 8.5 % (normal), Zoe at 16% (high), ID3 & 4 at 5%, Cupra Born at 2.5%

LOADS of Toyotas, this is unusual only 3rd/5th email with Toyotas in them (from memory) - eg Rav4 Hybrid at 8.5% discount

Spoiler: Details

 

[MartinAustin]

Irrelevant post coming up... though more relevant than whether or not China and Russia will go to war!!!

There appears to be a spoof "Tesla" youtube channel created, and the only (and first) video created is a copy of some old, multi-hour livestream w/ Cathy Wood, EM and Jack Dorsey as they waffle on about bitcoin. But the title of the video and its thumbnail were changed to the most clickbaity Tesla catnip content you could possibly think up, and I fell for it and started watching. 90,000 other viewers, or that's what it looks like.

I did not know Youtube could be spoofed so easily.

Back to reality...

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Man I love watching TSLA start the morning off green verses the macros only to slowly bleed away any outperform and end up underperforming by the end of the day .

One more trading day down until Q3 numbers

 

[ZachF]

One more trading day down until Q3 numbers

We have one more month in Q3…

 

[GOVA]

Well, don’t leave us hanging, what does this mean then?

Who knows such things? It could be polar opposites, too cool to show or too bad ... We'll find out eventually.

Irrelevant post coming up... though more relevant than whether or not China and Russia will go to war!!!

There appears to be a spoof "Tesla" youtube channel created, and the only (and first) video created is a copy of some old, multi-hour livestream w/ Cathy Wood, EM and Jack Dorsey as they waffle on about bitcoin. But the title of the video and its thumbnail were changed to the most clickbaity Tesla catnip content you could possibly think up, and I fell for it and started watching. 90,000 other viewers, or that's what it looks like.

I did not know Youtube could be spoofed so easily.

Back to reality...

Noticed that too. Then noticed that an one old flick is in their repertoire.

 

[Nocturnal]

Ok now I'm grumpy. Good news still piling up though. 11 Billion. I'll be getting some of my darn tax money back.

Tesla can surge 30% on Inflation Reduction Act, Wolfe Research says in upgrade to buy

The firm said the electric vehicle maker and its customers may net close to $11 billion in U.S. government incentives by 2025.

www.cnbc.com

 

[Singuy]

Man I love watching TSLA start the morning off green verses the macros only to slowly bleed away any outperform and end up underperforming by the end of the day .

One more trading day down until Q3 numbers

lots of news of uncertainty, the world is moving chess pieces and the market is caught up in it. I call it a win any day we outperform our beta on any red days.

 

[ZachF]

Certain Chinese stocks are getting hammered, Tencent is down over 5%.

Yen is getting hammered too, I’m worried it’s getting close to full blown currency collapse stage.

At current exchange rates, California’s economy (~$3.69t) is getting close to surpassing both Germany (~€3.83t) and Japan (¥547t) in size…

 

[betstarship]

Looks like Tim Cook borrowed one to drive around.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1545572952040771584

 

[Drezil]

Irrelevant post coming up... though more relevant than whether or not China and Russia will go to war!!!

There appears to be a spoof "Tesla" youtube channel created, and the only (and first) video created is a copy of some old, multi-hour livestream w/ Cathy Wood, EM and Jack Dorsey as they waffle on about bitcoin. But the title of the video and its thumbnail were changed to the most clickbaity Tesla catnip content you could possibly think up, and I fell for it and started watching. 90,000 other viewers, or that's what it looks like.

I did not know Youtube could be spoofed so easily.

Back to reality...

its the same thing that is going on for months now ..
and it usually is plastered with "double you crypto"-scam addresses...