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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Methinks you're overanalyzing a simple fact:
-Rating agencies are paid by the entities that offer securities.
Consequence: no securities offered, no rating agency income.
Tesla offers zero corporate debt. Thus: zero income.
Tesla offers only a handful of securitized loans/leases. mot much income there.
Consequence: minimal incentive to raise the rating to investment grade.
Question: How many corporations will make a decision knowing that the action will result in, at best, zero financial benefit?

People persist in manufacturing conspiracies. That is not needed at all. Simple financial interests explain it. A corporation (e.g. rating agency) does not give benefits without compensation.
I agree with what you say. Additionally, ratings agencies are required to either maintain a rating or withdraw it (i.e they can't just let the current rating go stale) and given the ABS bonds need to be rated throughout their life at least Moodys is essentially forced to keep rating Tesla for at least a few more years.

Given this position I wonder if they are open to a "credibility attack", I.e. if there is enough public discourse dressing down Moodys for an increasingly stupid position whether they would need to move just to fend off criticism or else start losing business on other unrelated transactions. "who cares what Moodys thinks, they still rate Tesla as junk"

there has also been an explosion of new ratings agencies looking to eat the established agencies lunch (e.g Arc, kbra, etc - full list here)

I wouldn't have thought this could be possible but the Tesla retail fan base is also far larger and more powerful than any other I have seen and meme stocks are a thing now. It will be interesting to see how the current public pressure plays out.
 
OMG. Please watch this.

If Tesla can get the raw materials from the right places they get a tax credit of $35 per kWh of battery cells produced in the US.

And they get another $10 per kWh for battery pack production. It doesn't sound like there are sourcing requirements for that as long as the pack is assembled here.
Or if you prefer reading, the same analysis is here:
 
OMG. Please watch this.

If Tesla can get the raw materials from the right places they get a tax credit of $35 per kWh of battery cells produced in the US.

And they get another $10 per kWh for battery pack production. It doesn't sound like there are sourcing requirements for that as long as the pack is assembled here.

The only question I have is how will this work with the new 15% minimum tax for Large corporations. I think Tesla paid roughly 10% recently, so they might not be able to get it (obviously don't know, hence the question).
 
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The only question I have is how will this work with the new 15% minimum tax for Large corporations. I think Tesla paid roughly 10% recently, so they might not be able to get it (obviously don't know, hence the question).
Or if you prefer reading, the same analysis is here:
From the article:
“What if a company doesn't have profits in the USA? Before scaling its Giga Texas plant, Tesla's profits are low or nonexistent in the United States because the costs of their headquarters and engineering is in the United States. If any company is not profitable in the USA to pay taxes for the first 5 years of this legislation, it will still receive the tax credit in the form of a direct payment.”
 
About the Russian gas situation:

Russia burns the NG that was meant for Nord stream because there are no reservoir capacities anymore & CO2 is not as harmful as CH4 in the atmosphere.

That is the gas that was sanctioned and also originally destined in part to reach Tesla's giga Berlin. Iirc then Russia would supply that has it we life all sanctions and don't support Ukraine anymore.
Saw them flaring it. This is from portovaya. Picture is about 30km from the ng compressor station, picture taken from finnish side of the border. It's s big flame.
 

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From the article:
“What if a company doesn't have profits in the USA? Before scaling its Giga Texas plant, Tesla's profits are low or nonexistent in the United States because the costs of their headquarters and engineering is in the United States. If any company is not profitable in the USA to pay taxes for the first 5 years of this legislation, it will still receive the tax credit in the form of a direct payment.”
Also since Tesla was from the beginning was in California, this is not technically part of the United States as most of the United States well tell you…
 
The only question I have is how will this work with the new 15% minimum tax for Large corporations. I think Tesla paid roughly 10% recently, so they might not be able to get it (obviously don't know, hence the question).
According to the article, there is bullish news on that front as well. But it doesn't specifically say how it would intersect with the 15% minimum tax:
What if a company doesn't have profits in the USA? Before scaling its Giga Texas plant, Tesla's profits are low or nonexistent in the United States because the costs of their headquarters and engineering is in the United States. If any company is not profitable in the USA to pay taxes for the first 5 years of this legislation, it will still receive the tax credit in the form of a direct payment.

So even if a long-standing US corporation pretends like their battery plant in a given state is not profitable in order to extract maximum government handouts, it will still receive the Advanced manufacturing production credit.
 
Not because Europeans have too much money to spend. It's because of the war and a massive increase in energy costs (among other things). It's going to cause a global recession. So raising interest rates in the US seems incredibly stupid.
OT weekend mutterings:

The Fed has backed itself into a corner. Anything they do will look incredibly stupid. But, it's not their fault. The fault lies with Federal deficit spending.

Federal deficit spending is nothing new. Read "Fiat Money Inflation in France" for a good explanation of the dilemma we're in. Written long ago about the 1790's bout of inflation France suffered. (Short and well written. It should be part of any high school curriculum.) Didn't turn out too well for them, but every generation needs to learn lessons for themselves.

My two largest holdings are TSLA and BAM. If you're looking for a great business (asset manager), with a great track record (20 year 18% returns), run by a brilliant CEO (Bruce Flatt) and with a long runway ahead (he's still young) then BAM might be a good complement to your TSLA position. I mention BAM because not everyone wants to or should be 100% invested in TSLA. As vulture investors, Brookfield thrives when others are suffering. They manage hundreds of billions of hard assets that appreciate with inflation. The fees associated with these assets are high margin and growing at over 20%/year. The shares are selling at a nice discount to what they are worth.
 
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Here's Steve Hanley's article from Clean Technica about the potential impact of the Advanced Manufacturing Credit for those who don't want to watch the video. This represents a substantial (potential >$3K) credit for every EV that meets the criteria.
 
Or if you prefer reading, the same analysis is here:
There is incorrect info here and promulgated by Tesla pundits that there
will be a blanket materials ban from China as a "foreign entity of concern".

That does not mean an entire country! The entity list kept by Department
of Commerce is very limited and specific. Unless materials processing
or mining in China were discovered to be using child or forced labor, and
listed in places like:


it is not necessarily a "Limiting Factor". The mining, extraction, *or*
processing (say mined in China but processed in Australia) still
credit-eligible. See:


Please source some info if this is wrong.
 
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There is incorrect info here and promulgated by Tesla pundits that there
will be a blanket materials ban from China as a "foreign entity of concern".

That does not mean an entire country! The entity list kept by Department
of Commerce is very limited and specific. Unless materials processing
or mining in China were discovered to be using child or forced labor, and
listed in places like:


it is not necessarily a "Limiting Factor".
There seems to be some disagreement about that on this thread. I thought the same as you, but others have made good points based on various other laws.

I think we will need to wait for government rulings to know for sure how all this stuff will play out.

But I do think that no matter what, the Inflation Reduction Act is handing out huge sums of cash for EVs and batteries. Nobody is better positioned to take advantage of it than Tesla.
 
There seems to be some disagreement about that on this thread. I thought the same as you, but others have made good points based on various other laws.

I think we will need to wait for government rulings to know for sure how all this stuff will play out.

But I do think that no matter what, the Inflation Reduction Act is handing out huge sums of cash for EVs and batteries. Nobody is better positioned to take advantage of it than Tesla.
That's fair if the IRA somehow overrides stuff like: foreign entity of concern
Can you point to the postings here about amendments or alternative
interpretations to what is listed as U.S. code at Cornell? IANAL so
input from knowledgable sources is welcome!

I certainly agree that making inducements to companies which manufacture
in the U.S. will undermine subsidies from elsewhere, just as solar panel
production in China gets slapped with special tariffs.
 
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Please source some info if this is wrong.
It has already been covered in this thread multiple times. Like here where @AndrewZ provided links to the definitions used in the IRA:

This is the definition of a "foreign entity of concern" along with the source


China fits in as a "covered nation" along with Russia, North Korea, and Iran, defined here



Anyone who believes China is not a foreign entity of concern just out of principle, what they're trying to do right now, and what they've been trying to do for a while, well they need to get up to speed in the geopolitical realm. China's attempting to control the battery supply chain should be of concern to all of us, lest we swap out the world's energy reliance on OPEC for the reliance on the PRC.
 
Saw them flaring it. This is from portovaya. Picture is about 30km from the ng compressor station, picture taken from finnish side of the border. It's s big flame.
Thanks for posting.
Isn't this forum great. There's a news item about something happening in Russia and someone on here is close enough to actually see it and take a photo
 
If Tesla can get the raw materials from the right places they get a tax credit of $35 per kWh of battery cells produced in the US.

Indeed, I'm not even sure that's a requirement. I think the legislation as passed says materials sourced, processed, or recycled in America or a country which has a free-trade agreement with America.

Materials CAN NOT come from the wrong places however (which means N.Korea China Iran etc.). I think this needs to be clarified by Dec 31, 2022 by the relevent U.S. Government Agencies. Even then, the recycling clause may be a work-around for certain materials.

Paging @mongo for the details.

Chairs!
 
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