Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Xepa777]

View attachment 845237

Adam Jonas just soiled his pants.

 

[hobbes]

Rear wheeled drive MY from Berlin; Is this the likely scenario?

• Tesla have got themselves a decent number of LFP Blade batteries from BYD
  • These have significantly poorer performance - hence slower 0-60
    • Therefore no intended future performance unlock
• Tesla have insufficient batteries in Europe
  • Hence smaller battery model
  • Hence using what they can get hold of
• Tesla will likely phase out this model when more batteries are available
• M3 SR would be better suited to this battery as it is more efficient and would be a better low end vehicle
• These batteries will be good for Robotaxis and storage so Tesla will want to find uses to grow the supply before switching over

Plus, Tesla will just be starting with drive train production in Berlin. Likely the first produced locally will not be performance-grade but improve over time. Fits just fine into the base Y.

 

[hobbes]

You mean that place where you have to put on your Sunday best?

Man, and youtube back then - that resolution!!

 

[insaneoctane]

Not because Europeans have too much money to spend. It's because of the war and a massive increase in energy costs (among other things). It's going to cause a global recession. So raising interest rates in the US seems incredibly stupid.

The weekend conspiracy theorist in me has starting to wonder if the powers that be orchestrated portions of this to get electricity prices high enough to stall or damage EV momentum...

 

[Thekiwi]

Rob thinks these are probably cars with LFP batteries exported from Shanghai.

Thanks makes some sense as Berlin isn't yet at the required run rate.

If Berlin can be making 5K Model Ys per week by the end of the year, can make in Berlin with LFP Blade batteries should be possible and due to lower import duties might have better margins than LFP imported from Shanghai.

As an Australian data point, my wife's Model Y is coming early, and some friends at her work got an early delivery on a Model 3 Performance.
Shanghai seems to be really cranking out the cars.

Yes Rob outlines it well that it is highly likely the Shanghai produced Model Y RWD that was introduced in Europe yesterday, not a new Berlin built model.

 

[hobbes]

Rumors of gen 2 4680 cell production

That would be cool.. Would explain slower-than-expected 4680 ramp and actually make it a good thing, because Tesla would already be upgrading production process and cell before going into volume, so a deliberate choice (enabled by good current 2170 supply) and not being forced to delay because current design doesn´t work. Likely, the truth is somewhere in the middle but still bullish to me.

 

[transpondster]

Yes Rob outlines it well that it is highly likely the Shanghai produced Model Y RWD that was introduced in Europe yesterday, not a new Berlin built model.

My WAG is that it will be dual supply, UK, IE, NO, SE, FI will get CATL / Shanghai version, while other countries will get BYD / Berlin. Speculation on my side RHD for IE/UK, NO because there is no import tax, maybe it's more cold sensitive would explain FI, SE.

 

[Dreadnought]

The weekend conspiracy theorist in me has starting to wonder if the powers that be orchestrated portions of this to get electricity prices high enough to stall or damage EV momentum...

It's an adverse side-effect of the pay-as-clear model that pays every electricity provider the price of the highest bid, which is currently determined by gas prices. A handful of Hornsdale-like batteries might help to curtail the horrendous price levels (while at the same time making a killing).
The upside is that renewables also get the full price despite the low running costs, which incentivises further investment.

See EU energy prices for instance.

Edit to add that retail PV (at least in Germany) gets fixed feed-in rates and does not benefit from the craze.

 

[Drezil]

News from the European energy markets:
Yesterday 1 kWh hit the intraday peak of 1,18€ on the spot market. Up 40cents in 3 days.
Rates for "base load" in the future are insane high as well.

Note: spot market usually fluctuates with production and usually goes negative midday in the summer due to excess solar.
And spot market are commercial prices without taxes and everything. Think more like 1,50-1,75€/kWh if those prices teach the consumer..

There may be regional differences and regional cheaper prices as the limiting factor is the transfer volume that the power lines can handle (Bavaria especially is looking towards a child Winter because they stalled it for decades because new power lines are unpopular with the voters).
I heard some wind energy in the north sea is offline due to not enough transport-capacity south.

All hail to the Megapack that would ease the pressure.. if they would have been deployed

 

[Usain]

At 1:54 there’s a satellite dish on the house -in 1968!?? Also I wanna buy the old Brady Bunch bus and give it Tesla battery’s and motors.

The movie is set in modern day with the Brady family still stuck in the 70's. That's part of the running gag throughout the film as they react to modern devices like the home video cameras.

 

[Drezil]

About the Russian gas situation:

Weltwirtschaft - aktuelle Nachrichten

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Russia burns the NG that was meant for Nord stream because there are no reservoir capacities anymore & CO2 is not as harmful as CH4 in the atmosphere.

That is the gas that was sanctioned and also originally destined in part to reach Tesla's giga Berlin. Iirc then Russia would supply that has it we life all sanctions and don't support Ukraine anymore.

The flared quantities are said to be gas that was originally intended for export to Germany. A compressor station is located near Portovaya - the Nord Stream 1 Baltic Sea pipeline begins there. The Russian energy company Gazprom has also built a new plant there for the production of liquefied natural gas (LNG).

The flaring of gas during processing is nothing unusual. However, experts were astonished by the enormous quantities involved. Although the exact dimensions of the flared gas quantities are difficult to quantify, the energy industry service Rystad assumes that around 4.34 million cubic meters of gas go up in smoke every day in Portovaya. This is gas worth the equivalent of around ten million euros a day. Rystad estimates the amount of gas flared in the atmosphere to be about 0.5 percent of the EU's daily demand. The industry service described the burning of such large quantities of natural gas as an environmental disaster. Around 9000 tons of CO2 would be released every day.

 

[kanweg]

How hard would it be to throttle the gas wells a little bit?

I think Putin is trying to taunt Europeans that he has plenty of gas and not caring less about global warming. We should ignore this.

 

[Cobbler]

About the Russian gas situation:

Weltwirtschaft - aktuelle Nachrichten

Überblick zu Hintergründen, Analysen und Interviews bei tagesschau.de - die erste Adresse für Nachrichten und umfassende Berichte zu aktuellen Themen.

www.tagesschau.de

Russia burns the NG that was meant for Nord stream because there are no reservoir capacities anymore & CO2 is not as harmful as CH4 in the atmosphere.

That is the gas that was sanctioned and also originally destined in part to reach Tesla's giga Berlin. Iirc then Russia would supply that has it we life all sanctions and don't support Ukraine anymore.

Since markets are closed today, I wanted to share a talk I recently had with a plant manager from a big chemical company in Flanders.

Some of the issues he mentioned:
Production shutdowns of many plasticizers. This will cause a major huge wave of many shortages in end-products going into many markets.
Some try to overcome this with trying to import chemicals from outside the EU, but there isn't any good enough supply.
Gas energy costs rising through the roof. Trying to convert heaters in production to fuel (this is dropping in price) instead.
Chemical substances were purchased in bulk months ago. Now these substances dropped in price past months, causing to write down these assets with losses, bad on the balance sheet.
Employees complaining on how to make ends meet.
Several competitors all have similar issues.

In general: the EU (industry) and overall market is really going to be . This is really bad . Russia is squeezing the life out of the EU economy. Something needs to change or we'll be in a never seen before recession within months.

 

[Drezil]

How hard would it be to throttle the gas wells a little bit?

I think Putin is trying to taunt Europeans that he has plenty of gas and not caring less about global warming. We should ignore this.

Gas is a byproduct of oil extraction and even if you shut the well it still gases out.

 

[Drezil]

News from the European energy markets:
Yesterday 1 kWh hit the intraday peak of 1,18€ on the spot market. Up 40cents in 3 days.
Rates for "base load" in the future are insane high as well.

Note: spot market usually fluctuates with production and usually goes negative midday in the summer due to excess solar.
And spot market are commercial prices without taxes and everything. Think more like 1,50-1,75€/kWh if those prices teach the consumer..

There may be regional differences and regional cheaper prices as the limiting factor is the transfer volume that the power lines can handle (Bavaria especially is looking towards a child Winter because they stalled it for decades because new power lines are unpopular with the voters).
I heard some wind energy in the north sea is offline due to not enough transport-capacity south.

All hail to the Megapack that would ease the pressure.. if they would have been deployed

As I got asked for source, I googled a bit. My source at Uniper can't supply information out of working hours

The exchange is EEX and to get a clearer picture (as this is an instant-delivery-market ) are quite tricky to set up as everything get munches together and averaged out in statistics.

After some fiddling I managed to find & highlight the Friday spike:

Prices are in €/MWh. So the 1227 peak is 1.227€/kWh.
And even in that chart you can still see a low to ~ negative 200€ at 2am.

Now all say in a chorus again: Arbitrage with Tesla Megapacks.

Edit: even funnier: putting it to 15 min on the German market today at 6:45 am someone payed a spot-price of over 2200€.. but that was just a small blip and did not move any averages

 

[elasalle]

Final month of deliveries will be domestic/China.
Export/ # of ships wise, I think tally is looking really great.

(So looking forward to August CPI and blowout Q3 ....)

https://twitter.com/x/status/1563503003008503809

Seems there was another ship that also left for japan and not counted here

https://twitter.com/x/status/1563481681486442497

 

[unk45]

Let us know if you’d consider having us join you for at least a portion.

You’re on! You know the Northern part, which I do not. I know parts of the Central and South America routes. The trick is to avoid both winters and survive the really hard areas near the Darien on both ends. There are a handful of spots where Spanish doesn’t work.

Prehaps Tesla might help

...
What if....
The Credit rating institutions are delaying the increase in credit rating because the People that are controlling the price of the stock now.
The Credit Rating Institutions are either doing it. or getting paid by who is doing it.
...

Methinks you're overanalyzing a simple fact:
-Rating agencies are paid by the entities that offer securities.
Consequence: no securities offered, no rating agency income.
Tesla offers zero corporate debt. Thus: zero income.
Tesla offers only a handful of securitized loans/leases. mot much income there.
Consequence: minimal incentive to raise the rating to investment grade.
Question: How many corporations will make a decision knowing that the action will result in, at best, zero financial benefit?

People persist in manufacturing conspiracies. That is not needed at all. Simple financial interests explain it. A corporation (e.g. rating agency) does not give benefits without compensation.

 

[JRP3]

Adam Jonas just soiled his pants.

Only if he fails to understand that this is not Starlink in vehicles. The ability to send a text or possibly make a call in the middle of nowhere using a cell service is not broadband internet.

 

[JRP3]

The weekend conspiracy theorist in me has starting to wonder if the powers that be orchestrated portions of this to get electricity prices high enough to stall or damage EV momentum...

The problem with that theory is it also accelerates the drive for alternative sources of energy while at the same time creating a huge drag on the economy from higher energy prices. Seems like a really bad idea for a conspiracy.

 

[ZachF]

Not because Europeans have too much money to spend. It's because of the war and a massive increase in energy costs (among other things). It's going to cause a global recession. So raising interest rates in the US seems incredibly stupid.

There is still an overhang of money in the US. Home prices are completely unaffordable for young people starting life, and raising now will give the fed room to potentially drop rates next year, something other CBs won’t be able to do.

Europe on the other hand, only has bad choices. The only good choice would be to go back in time and stop Germany from shutting down all its nukes and importing Russian gas. The ECB is probably going to have to raise rates even as the economy enters a severe recession to protect the currency and stop an inflationary energy shortfall from turning into a full blown stagflationary currency rout.

It’s probably gonna take europe ~3 years to plug this energy deficit.