Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[bkp_duke]

Side note: does the $7500 tax credit apply to Model 3 delivered in January this year?

Not retroactive, so no.

 

[hobbes]

Guess there is a chance this was posted already (didn´t find it) but good enough to share again:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1556457671796133888

 

[hobbes]

Gary Black on new tax credit (answering a question regarding WholeMarsBlog´s doubts):

https://twitter.com/x/status/1556558517422653442

 

[jkirkwood001]

Electrek: Tesla secures deal for $5 billion worth of nickel in Indonesia, says official.

Edit: That's a serious amount of nickel. Tesla continues to lead the way in enabling them to scale to the volume needed to meet the mission, the volume all the legacy OEMs assume - with their ambitious pronouncements - they can manufacture using traditional JIT sourcing. It will be fun to look back in 5 years, when Tesla is likely top 3 most valuable company, maybe no.1, and think "wasn't it obvious to them 'it's the batteries, stupid?!?' I mean, why didn't they use their industry lead smarter to prepare for electrification??"

Tesla (TSLA) secures deal for $5 billion worth of nickel in Indonesia, says official

Tesla has reportedly agreed to a deal with the Indonesian government that will secure the automaker about $5 billion worth...

electrek.co

 

[jw934]

FactChecking said:

The new EV credits in the US benefit Tesla in all product segments:

• Model S/X pricing improves by $7,500 over Porsche, Lucid & Rivian, which lose the old credit.
• Current & planned Chinese EVs imported into the US lose $7,500 pricing vs. domestically assembled Teslas.
• Lower trims of the Model 3 will fit into the $55,000 cap once the inflationary spike recedes.
• Primary competitors of the Cybertruck (Ford, Rivian) have trims above $80,000 & the Cybertruck much less expensive to produce due to its exoskeleton design & Gigacast underbody.
• $25,000 Tesla model will benefit most from the $55,000 price cap for compact sedans.
• The $55,000 & $80,000 EV credit price caps fundamentally benefit the market leading EV maker with the largest scale & the highest efficiency: Tesla.

 

[Cult Member]

Very interesting graph, thank's a lot! But why do you stop after 2035? The development wouldn't be linear for the following years or do you expect it? This will be the time when the adaption of robotaxis show their impact or not? I would guess that the number of robotaxis will increase at least until 2040 to solve the need for individual transport in the world.

 

[cricketman]

$25,000 Tesla model will benefit most from the $55,000 price cap for compact sedans.

A question, has there been any communication from Elon/Tesla about a possible $25,000 Tesla model?

I think this issue came up after battery day only because there was a model in the presentation with a cloth draped over it, so the cheaper model became speculation. I do remember Elon saying a few years ago that there would not be a cheaper model to the Model 3 as autonomy would mean the Model 3 would pay for itself. He could have just said that to prevent the Osborne effect

Strategically, it would make sense if Tesla used a smaller model as a robotaxi only, and operate the fleet themselves (or with fleet partners). I dont want Tesla selling small robotaxis to people at $25k-$40k unless they are going to take 30% of the robotaxi receipts a la Apple store

 

[petit_bateau]

Very interesting graph, thank's a lot! But why do you stop after 2035? The development wouldn't be linear for the following years or do you expect it? This will be the time when the adaption of robotaxis show their impact or not? I would guess that the number of robotaxis will increase at least until 2040 to solve the need for individual transport in the world.

I'm afraid my crystal ball isn't good enough for me to take a view between the various forces in play after the early 2030s . For example I don't have a clear view on whether (and when or where) energy might be "to cheap to meter" or actually quite expensive. That has implications both for affordability of domestic purchase of vehicles, and general economic industrial sustainability. Nor do I have much of a view on the extent of automation (robotaxi, optimus) and whether this would cause demand reduction (the rent-not-buy, make fewer vehicles thesis) or conversely demand increase (the rebound effect). So my modelling of automotive out to 2040 is already quite radical in what I sketch out, and in any case is mainly intended to serve as an input to probe vehicle fleet trends, stationary battery uptake, and overall renewables penetration at a global level.

 

[brantse]

I'm confused. I thought, as of last night, that the bill included a requirement that battery materials be sourced from North America, which was going to eliminate all current EV's from qualifying. This morning, it sounds as though everyone believes current EV's will qualify. Did something change in the bill, or are we missing something?

 

[NicoV]

Strategically, it would make sense if Tesla used a smaller model as a robotaxi only, and operate the fleet themselves (or with fleet partners). I dont want Tesla selling small robotaxis to people at $25k-$40k unless they are going to take 30% of the robotaxi receipts a la Apple store

Elon mentioned recently (IIRC on the last earnings call, but can’t find anything related in the transcript) that the robotaxi would have a flexible interior that would also allow the chassis to be used as a delivery van and other uses. So I doubt it will be a small car.
Maybe it’s just my memory hoping to be able to use it as a vanlifer van playing tricks on me.

 

[MC3OZ]

A question, has there been any communication from Elon/Tesla about a possible $25,000 Tesla model?

I think this issue came up after battery day only because there was a model in the presentation with a cloth draped over it, so the cheaper model became speculation. I do remember Elon saying a few years ago that there would not be a cheaper model to the Model 3 as autonomy would mean the Model 3 would pay for itself. He could have just said that to prevent the Osborne effect

Strategically, it would make sense if Tesla used a smaller model as a robotaxi only, and operate the fleet themselves (or with fleet partners). I dont want Tesla selling small robotaxis to people at $25k-$40k unless they are going to take 30% of the robotaxi receipts a la Apple store

The cloth draped Model is now the RoboTaxi, that is at least a product that we know is coming soon.

The RoboTaxi could be any size the key metric is how many passengers it seats.
Likely numbers are 8, 4, 2. It could be a 4 seater with folddown rear seats that can act as a cargo area.

So the RoboTaxi could be compact and could be sold as an entry level model.
If it is relatively thin with a smaller frontal area it would have less drag. Less drag and a smaller lighter weight body mean more efficient.

But an 8 seater is also likely, however 2 x 4 seaters does the same job.

 

[MC3OZ]

Elon mentioned recently (IIRC on the last earnings call, but can’t find anything related in the transcript) that the robotaxi would have a flexible interior that would also allow the chassis to be used as a delivery van and other uses. So I doubt it will be a small car.
Maybe it’s just my memory hoping to be able to use it as a vanlifer van playing tricks on me.

A 4 seater combination where all 4 seats fold down could do deliveries, but Optimus might need to ride on the roof

 

[Usain]

I thought that they had to be under $25k as well as other conditions, like it had to be from a dealer and has to be a sales to the second owner. So not all Teslas would qualify. In fact probably very few.

I apologize. The $25K price cap is still in there. I missed it earlier.

 

[jw934]

I thought that the bill included a requirement that battery materials be sourced from North America.

The bill does not say that.

This article quotes the clauses in the bill pertaining to your question, with some explanation.

New US Climate Bill Seeks to Onshore Electric Vehicle Supply Chain | White & Case LLP

On July 27, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) unveiled a budget reconciliation bill entitled the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 ("IRA"), which would implement core components of President Biden's agenda on healthcare, tax reform, and climate change.1 The bill includes an estimated...

www.whitecase.com

In short, the battery material requirement is for yearly increasing percentages from free-trade countries. In addition, there are two exclusion clauses that comes into effect starting end of 2023 and end of 2024 that bans battery material/components from China/Russia/North Koria/Iran.

 

[Usain]

If I read this correctly (have to look at the whole thread attached to this Tweet) he´s not saying that Tesla will not profit, but

• doesn´t like that PHEVs will get the credit also
• Subsidies will end too soon for local supply chain to catch up in time
• Tax credit can be transferred to dealers so people buying from them may get a discount immediately while Tesla customers have to wait for their tax bill first

Question is are we sure that Tesla today is sourcing their parts such that they comply with what the bill requests? If so and other manufacturers don´t then the points with PHEVs and supply chain timing are moot. Even if others comply, too, I don´t think PHEV will take away any significant number of sales from Tesla. The dealer thing would have some effect against Tesla IMHO but also not too significantly as of now most people buying a Tesla are wealthy enough to not care too much if they get the credit later.

I'm pretty sure Whole Mars is wrong about this.

• I agree the PHEV won't take away any significant number of sales from Tesla. PHEVs don't sell that well in the US and they've been eligible for a smaller tax credit for quite some time.
• Mars says, "Why chose an F-150 Lighting when an F-150 hybrid qualifies too?" The answer is that the Lightning has a huge frunk (dry lockable storage) and you can plug in your power tools. The EV is just a much better daily work truck.
• Tesla apparently qualifies as a dealer under the bill. So I'm pretty sure Mars is just flat wrong on that one.

 

[Cult Member]

I'm afraid my crystal ball isn't good enough for me to take a view between the various forces in play after the early 2030s . For example I don't have a clear view on whether (and when or where) energy might be "to cheap to meter" or actually quite expensive. That has implications both for affordability of domestic purchase of vehicles, and general economic industrial sustainability. Nor do I have much of a view on the extent of automation (robotaxi, optimus) and whether this would cause demand reduction (the rent-not-buy, make fewer vehicles thesis) or conversely demand increase (the rebound effect). So my modelling of automotive out to 2040 is already quite radical in what I sketch out, and in any case is mainly intended to serve as an input to probe vehicle fleet trends, stationary battery uptake, and overall renewables penetration at a global level.

Exact this is my point: Will automation result in demand reduction or increase? I pledge for the latter and would expect that the tipping point is far in the future. The demand will be widely spread and the need for it is just-in-time. We will get used to this concept pretty soon if it has no leaks or waiting times.

 

[Krugerrand]

Isn’t it wonderful that government can write such a comprehensive bill in clear, easy to understand language? What would be the point of writing a convoluted one, where people would have to discuss for days on end what it all meant and then afterwards walk away scratching their heads?

People continue to suck in every way imaginable. I noted Elon said Earth would be okay. He didn’t say people were going to be okay.

Next up, a 23 page instruction guide on how to boil wieners.

 

[Stretch2727]

I'm confused. I thought, as of last night, that the bill included a requirement that battery materials be sourced from North America, which was going to eliminate all current EV's from qualifying. This morning, it sounds as though everyone believes current EV's will qualify. Did something change in the bill, or are we missing something?

Yep I agree. See lots of speculation on which cars will get it without considering this. I don't think anyone can be sure until the manufacturers say which cars qualify based on the battery assembly and battery materials. My best guess is some will qualify for half for battery assembly, almost none, including Tesla, will qualify for the other half for battery materials.

I see this whole thing turning into a mess with very few rebates/credits in the early years. On top of that you will have people waiting until next year not knowing if the car they want actually qualifies for a rebate.

 

[brantse]

The one thing that is certain is that if any model of Tesla vehicle applies for the full $7500 credit, then that $82M CBO estimate for the first year isn't going to last a week.

 

[traxila]

Electrek: Tesla secures deal for $5 billion worth of nickel in Indonesia, says official.

Edit: That's a serious amount of nickel. Tesla continues to lead the way in enabling them to scale to the volume needed to meet the mission, the volume all the legacy OEMs assume - with their ambitious pronouncements - they can manufacture using traditional JIT sourcing. It will be fun to look back in 5 years, when Tesla is likely top 3 most valuable company, maybe no.1, and think "wasn't it obvious to them 'it's the batteries, stupid?!?' I mean, why didn't they use their industry lead smarter to prepare for electrification??"

Tesla (TSLA) secures deal for $5 billion worth of nickel in Indonesia, says official

Tesla has reportedly agreed to a deal with the Indonesian government that will secure the automaker about $5 billion worth...

electrek.co

Don’t believe Indonesia has free trade agreement with USA. So would not work for EV credit.

But of course, there is the rest of the world to sell Teslas too!