Gary always has a list of reasons Tesla is undervalued and makes sure to complain about at least one of those daily.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
The put/call ratio the first 10 minutes of trading was at 0.04. That's the lowest I've seen.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Until he decides to sell, then it's overvalued.
12,500 has developed into a major number for the Nasdaq... that resistance breaking today can really push the whole market.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Yeah, that is the exact time that Tesla injected $5B worth of new TSLA shares into the market. I posted the chart of what effect that had on the ongoing squeeze, which was +90% from the Aug 11 Dividend announcement.
So, confounding variables, unable to draw that conclusion. But in all other cases with Large Cap tech stocks doing share dividends this Summer, their have been no "D+2" type issues. It's still much more likely that there's something different wrt TSLA.
Again, the power of a theory is in its predictive ability. I predicted a 90% rise in TSLA on Fri, Aug 14, and that's precisely what we saw. Then, using the same theory about the forced covering of naked short share inventory, I was also able to predict the magnitude of the runup due to the S&P 500 inclusion in Dec 2020.
Science is funny; evidence is only able to disprove a theory. So far, this theory stands. But the DTC+2 theory does not work because it would predict dividend distribution issues which we do not see for other large cap stocks that do not have high levels of short interest against them.
Then we're left with Oocam's Razor: 'the most likely culprit is probably the culprit'.
Cheers!
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Gonna be tough to hold us back today. Feels like a +5.78% day to me.
If a gamma squeeze is still happening, we're likely to see things really pick up midday... so ~11-12 EST.
That would be nice. Although to me it looks like they are holding it back pretty easily so far.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
That has a tendency to unwind quite rapidly and with great force! I assume that's just MM algos bots pushing us down closer to max pain, aka standard policy.
With macros lifting us at an appropriate @StarFoxisDown! multiple and the meeting looming....I think we see some fireworks after the MMD.
As an interesting side bar... I've been compiling days like today where Nasdaq has a strong day and Tesla is held down early (held down being under Nasdaq gain). The vast majority of the time (I'm only back to mid 2021, but 75+% of the time), Tesla breaks out at some point during the day to return to at least a 1.5x and about ~30% of the time it goes to 2x. I'm gathering this info to develop a trading strategy that can hopefully be used on Tesla and a few other stocks. This was motivated by a comment a month or two ago here and I think evidence is building that it is a workable way to skim 1-2% in a day.
This graph really puts thing into perspective in terms of competition.
Like all of us have called out here, legacy auto isn't competition for Tesla for the next 2-3 years minimum simply because they don't have ability to actually ramp.
the put to call ratio for this week tells me MM’s are going to pull out all the stops to avoid paying the 1,000+ calls. Hell we’re a day away from the meeting. And they’re easily able to hold TSLA to under the Nasdaq. Looks more and more likely to me that the call holders are really going to be bent over this week by MM’s
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
2.4 : 1 calls to puts as of this post, yet we are being capped hard right now.
At some point MMs have to delta hedge those calls, and when that happens I would bet we see the cork pop off. But don't know if that is today or if they think they can discourage the call buyers enough to reduce their numbers.
That would be quit helpful data. Thanks for putting the time into it
As its their first mass production electric vehicle, isn't the Model S's initial ramp up a better fit?
/me ducks and covers
Not if they feel that those calls won’t be in the money come Friday. MM’s can play a game of chicken and considering the tools they have to cap and drop the stock, the odds are in their favor. Those call buyers need actually volume to flood in to force MM’s hand
Question for the market experts, tea leaf readers, or chart lovers. (why does that last one sound like a slur?)
Is this accumulation? Light gains daily, some larger ticks up etc.
Is this accumulation? Light gains daily, some larger ticks up etc.
My goal is to get to 3 years of data. I think you can derive a strategy from that, especially if Tesla isn't the only stock with this situation happening. Then you can program an algo to search for these and execute trades.
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