Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[nativewolf]

I think there are two serious points in the original offering:

1) Tesla solar roof is expensive vs the alternatives. It would appear that in the US it is cheaper to install a new conventional roof + groundmount panels versus Tesla. Here in the UK when I compare typical PV prices with US Tesla PV prices, the UK is cheaper - which is a terrible inditement of Tesla. Any ways you cut it, Tesla seems to be expensive in the solar game. And looking at the quarterly accounts Tesla doesn't seem to be making money in Tesla Solar either. Since every PV installer I know around the world (and two thirds of solar manufacturers*) is making good money and expanding as fast as they want, the conclusion is that something is going wrong inside the business we might term Tesla Solar.

2. Tesla domestic level storage (i.e. Powerwall) is losing the game globally. Everyone I know is switching to LFP offerings from Huawei etc. Not only is Tesla Powerwall unobtainable, it is also overpriced. And it is not necessarily superior from a product offering viewpoint either. The early mover advantage and the Tesla brand are being squandered. And looking at the quarterly accounts Tesla doesn't seem to be making money in Tesla Home Storage either, not that we get enough detail to be sure. Perhaps Powerwalls are money spinners and Megapacks are money sinks, I don't know (but I think not). Tesla Storage is not delivering in my view in the domestic sector.

So ... this is not how it is supposed to be, and it is not how it should be. It is not as if the business is short of capital. And since those other LFP offerings are able to source cells and silicon devices (chips) then it seems that is not an explanation for the poor performance.

Maybe there wil be jam tomorrow, but there should have been jam yesterday as well as today in this part of the business.


* One-third of global PV manufacturing capacity is at medium or high risk of bankruptcy, IEA says

That's a great summary. Your point on chips is spot on, we can literally have any other storage solution here in a couple of weeks.

Tesla energy is on a long slide to nothing while EM dicks around with FSD and AI and Optimus. Meanwhile a real business that does proven good degrades into nothing. But hey...we're going to hear new product announcements at the shareholder meeting so its all good /s. I bet they won't highlight that they are in 4th place in solar installs or basically irrelevant in home storage. I mean Tesla basically pioneered home storage that mattered. They are so battery constrained right now it is not funny and they have no facilities planned to add capacity that would actually matter. I was disappointed last year but the lack of announcements this year is just shocking. It's a good thing that other vendors LFP solutions are hitting the market, at least there are alternatives.

 

[SmokyPeat]

Now the test of 750 is close. The chances of rejection are much higher than a breakthrough.

Tried to run, tried to hide, break on through to other side!

 

[Cattledog]

Nice. It looks like the middle of the Caribbean - where's the island?

Still underwater until $1.200/share...

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Megapacks, in particular, have both substantial deployment in Tesla sites and numerous large commercial projects that almost certainly have project accounting rules. Those should be material but are not sufficiently disclosed to know. Perhaps some could be seen by looking into public project finance documents, both the effort would outweigh the value. Further, Megapacks have been known to imply cells from numerous sources (Hornsdale was Samsung SDI, IIRC) and now they seem to be moving to LFP.

In the meantime all major battery suppliers including BYD have competitive offerings. BYD even has a range with wide modular size options.

With all that is visible in stationary storage I no longer think Tesla has major advantages, is simple storage.
I wonder how many of us even think about these:

Utilities | Tesla

Every year, electrical grids around the world add more renewable energy. Learn more about how Tesla utility-scale batteries and software controls can dispatch this energy, lower lifecycle costs and create a more stable and sustainable grid.

www.tesla.com

The utility, grid services and distributed storage links are distinctly different:

Tesla Energy Software | Tesla Support

Tesla has applied its deep experience in battery technology to build out an advanced ecosystem of software that powers its hardware product platform.

www.tesla.com

Quite without our general notice Tesla has scaled the original Autobidder to Opticaster, with Powerhub, Microgram Controller and Virtual Machine Mode allowing quite vast grid services.

Now Tesla has utility licenses in EU, UK, Texas (not yet all permitted) and some others. We've noticed those developments but always thought they were too obscure to measure.

We have all noticed that Tesla is opening Superchargers to other brands, and we have commercial pricing schedules for some places already. We have not noticed that Supercharger sites have increasing storage capacity, that pricing is already demand-variable. Right now we are about to have NA BEVs all able to use Superchargers, and our interest has been limited to whether or not our wait times will increase.

All this means that grid services and Tesla as a storage intermediary has arrived. This market is so gigantic that it swamps automotive. Thus far we've not figured out how to quantify this but we must.

There must be some among us who, like @Paracelsus , understand the structure of NA energy markets. We need somebody who really understands wholesale energy accounting to help with finding the numbers.

I've been too optimistic several times; maybe I suffer from Elon disease. This time all the pieces are already in place and many are already functioning, almost invisibly, as befits typical electrical grid information worldwide. It all hides in plain sight.

The new reality will likely be so different than today's reality, it's hard to predict how the disruption will go.

I like to just focus on the low hanging fruit with intractable high rates and large wind/solar potential. Australia is already operating and making tons of money. I see island as the next big opportunity for off-the-shelf solutions for Tesla Energy.

Those plus the domestic US markets where grid weakness or transmission fires(TX & CA) are a huge concern.

We almost don't need to quantity the opportunity.....it's the entire planet's energy infrastructure. Opportunity is limitless. Perhaps by 2024 we'll see some good examples of Autobidder integration and we can extrapolate from there.

I'm excited to see how much the German govt embraces Tesla as they aim for 100% renewables is a mere 13 years. They can move as fast as Elon, in the rare instances they want to.

 

[henchman24]

Tried to run, tried to hide, break on through to other side!

Gotta hold for a longer candle, but this is really positive. 760 is the next key resistance then it opens up quite a bit.

 

[Big Time]

I’ll put the clogs on at 775

 

[SOULPEDL]

Still underwater until $1.200/share...

It will never go past 1,200, lol. Too many in the waiting room. But 1,500 SP is another story!

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Still underwater until $1.200/share...

Not buying till $1243.50

 

[Ratanpara]

I agree with you that there is a lack of detail on Tesla's energy business.
My assumption though is that Tesla makes significant margin on Powerwalls, Powerpacks and Megapacks and have huge loses on the solar panel/roof business. Put there is not enough detail for me to prove this position.

What makes it worse is, Storage business is already low margin business and rising batteries cost doesn't help, though batteries used in storage is Li Fe.

 

[Gigapress]

Drew Baglino explained the problem with Solar Roof in the Stanford interview in late May. The video is private now but I still have notes I posted here on May 30th.

For Solar Roof, they had an "ivory tower" approach where they "spent a lot of time on the shingle and not enough time on the stuff around the shingle" like perimeter flashings and obstructions such as vents. The solar shingle is "awesome", "super easy to build" and "not expensive at all". Confident that these issues will be solved with time and effort.

Tesla also has said the entire business was shortchanged for almost two years to support the Model 3 ramp. They had lawyers helping out in the general assembly tent in Fremont. It was all hands on deck to prevent the collapse of the company in 2018.

@Blue horseshoe had also said:

Thanks for the link. At about 38 min is when he talks about solar roof. I've spoken with a person who works on the Tesla Energy side of the business and they said the same thing: the shingles aren't the issue. Solar roof this year generates more power per shingle while costing significantly less.

The issue is everything else like Drew mentions AND the myriad rules and regulations. The permitting and regulations are the largest hurdle they face in terms of solar roof installation growth

Roofing companies have put out several videos about Tesla Solar Roof and say they like it and the general installation process of the tiles is easy because they just snap into place, but also that it requires expertise to deal with flashings and stuff. There’s behind the scenes work Tesla has to do in planning the tile layout and cutting customized edge pieces to ship to the roofing contractors, which seems to be where a lot of the cost is currently coming from. However I believe a lot of this is an opportunity for software automation.

Comparing Solar Roof to ground mount solar isn’t quite right. Solar Roof is more intended for urban and suburban houses with limited area in the yard, especially limited unshaded area due to obstruction of trees and surrounding buildings. Rural properties with big yards will generally be better off with ground mount solar and some other roofing option if cost is a major concern.

 

[NooB_cat]

Haha MMs must be having a fit right now!
Surely no way they let it stay over 750 today.... right?....right?!

 

[unk45]

The new reality will likely be so different than today's reality, it's hard to predict how the disruption will go.

I like to just focus on the low hanging fruit with intractable high rates and large wind/solar potential. Australia is already operating and making tons of money. I see island as the next big opportunity for off-the-shelf solutions for Tesla Energy.

Those plus the domestic US markets where grid weakness or transmission fires(TX & CA) are a huge concern.

We almost don't need to quantity the opportunity.....it's the entire planet's energy infrastructure. Opportunity is limitless. Perhaps by 2024 we'll see some good examples of Autobidder integration and we can extrapolate from there.

I'm excited to see how much the German govt embraces Tesla as they aim for 100% renewables is a mere 13 years. They can move as fast as Elon, in the rare instances they want to.

You did not misrepresent your credentials!
FWIW, my first off-grid project was ~30 years ago and paid for itself under six months since my alternative was buying diesel fuel and carrying it on my work boat to my island. Almost every island, including the British Isles, eventually will figure out true renewables are cheaper.

 

[Kalex]

We have used this with great satisfaction in Northern Idaho (where we also lived at the end of the grid) and Minnesota - and even better is that the batteries are compatible with every other EGO tool - all of which we own here in Florida. (had to take a break from posting and have done a poor job of keeping up with posts in the last few months as we have just moved from Idaho to Florida). We bought a previously owned home that is an energy consumptive beast, but are in the process of reducing energy use and taking it off the grid anyways - to @TSLA Pilot point that this must be done by those of us that can vote with our wallets - even though that process will include leaning hard on the HOA review board for the unique solutions we need to implement. Wishing you a speedy and enjoyable renewable transition!

View attachment 826189

I have goal Zeros 1000/1400 battery packs , Ego blowers, self propelled mower and 2 stage snow blower, house solar panels. Haven’t touch a pump or gas for 4 years. Oh, models plaid, X and 3
Good life.

 

[Atomsla]

paid for itself unisex months

 

[TheTalkingMule]

You did not misrepresent your credentials!
FWIW, my first off-grid project was ~30 years ago and paid for itself unisex months since my alternative was buying diesel fuel and carrying it on my work boat to my island. Almost every island, including the British Isles, eventually will figure out true renewables are cheaper.

Current state of the US Virgin Islands is $.56/kWh and an avg of 5hrs of blackout per week. Propane & diesel plus a tiny bit of solar. It's just absurd.

People are leaving the 200MW grid as solar+battery is maybe 1/4 that cost. Which obviously on exacerbates the issue leaving fewer ratepayers behind to split the costs.

The opportunity for an Autobidder plus Megapack solution in these kinds of places is crazy massive. They'd be saving money day 1.

 

[bkp_duke]

I'm in the middle of the Caribbean with anemic connectivity, but ETrade seems to be OK. Sounds like TD is NG.

View attachment 826233

Starlink MARITIME is coming to help what ails you:

Starlink Business | Maritime

Reliable high-speed internet for businesses, starting at $250/mo. Schedule a consultation or view our buyer's guide.

www.starlink.com

EDIT - for big boats, this is a no-brainer. $5k/mo with $10k one-time fee for the equipment. 350Mbs download.

Likey!

 

[unk45]

Thanks, fixed it.

 

[Mengy]

Tesla crash/investigation FUD doesn't seem to work anymore. I'm barely seeing it picked up on outlets even.

There is only so many times someone can cry wolf until the masses begin to ignore everything said. The unending wall of FUD against Tesla has reached this point, it no longer has much weight anymore. The truth is out there and the FUD has lost it's teeth.

Of course this likely means the forces working to hold Tesla down will begin to resort to more drastic measures....

 

[Cattledog]

Drew Baglino explained the problem with Solar Roof in the Stanford interview in late May. The video is private now but I still have notes I posted here on May 30th.



Tesla also has said the entire business was shortchanged for almost two years to support the Model 3 ramp. They had lawyers helping out in the general assembly tent in Fremont. It was all hands on deck to prevent the collapse of the company in 2018.

@Blue horseshoe had also said:


Roofing companies have put out several videos about Tesla Solar Roof and say they like it and the general installation process of the tiles is easy because they just snap into place, but also that it requires expertise to deal with flashings and stuff. There’s behind the scenes work Tesla has to do in planning the tile layout and cutting customized edge pieces to ship to the roofing contractors, which seems to be where a lot of the cost is currently coming from. However I believe a lot of this is an opportunity for software automation.

Comparing Solar Roof to ground mount solar isn’t quite right. Solar Roof is more intended for urban and suburban houses with limited area in the yard, especially limited unshaded area due to obstruction of trees and surrounding buildings. Rural properties with big yards will generally be better off with ground mount solar and some other roofing option if cost is a major concern.

They should be talking to home builders. All the hard stuff like flashings, vents, etc. can be designed out at the start with simple roof forms and good planning - easy to gang plumbing vents, reduce hips and valleys, weird dormers etc. Really they should sell a TSLA Netzero solar HOUSE, not just the roof.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Starlink MARITIME is coming to help what ails you:

Starlink Business | Maritime

Reliable high-speed internet for businesses, starting at $250/mo. Schedule a consultation or view our buyer's guide.

www.starlink.com

EDIT - for big boats, this is a no-brainer. $5k/mo with $10k one-time fee for the equipment. 350Mbs download.

Likey!

I won’t even tell you the cost for the week. It’s just too embarrassing.