Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[UncaNed]

Merit please, great advice!

@Discoducky 's post prompted me to re-read @StealthP3D 's post, and have to agree.

I like that there's a "Posts of Merit" collection for all the Mod's best investing forum posts and all, but I'd love it if I could have a place to save my favorite TMC posts into something like my own virtual (shareable perhaps) personal "UncaNed's Posts of Merit" pseudo thread so I could easily refer to my old favorites from long ago.

I think it would be fair enough to charge members for whatever extra functions like this they'd like, considering how much time many of us spend here (and I know what this thread has been worth to me), if that motivates the TMC powers-that-be.

__________________________
EDIT-
Thanks to @Artful Dodger , @lukex4 ... for reminding me about Account Bookmarks.

 

[SOULPEDL]

$900

2 1/2 hrs to go, and then overtime. Pressure is building... More popcorn!

 

[Artful Dodger]

'd love it if I could have a place to save my favorite TMC posts into something like my own virtual (shareable perhaps) personal

Account Bookmarks

 

[lukex4]

@Discoducky 's post prompted me to re-read @StealthP3D 's post, and have to agree.

I like that there's a "Posts of Merit" collection for all the Mod's best investing forum posts and all, but I'd love it if I could have a place to save my favorite TMC posts into something like my own virtual (shareable perhaps) personal "UncaNed's Posts of Merit" pseudo thread so I could easily refer to my old favorites from long ago.

I think it would be fair enough to charge members for whatever extra functions like this they'd like, considering how much time many of us spend here (and I know what this thread has been worth to me), if that motivates the TMC powers-that-be.

The bookmark option?

 

[MP3Mike]

Account Bookmarks

Great for keeping a list for yourself, but it doesn't appear to be something that can be shared with others.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

2 1/2 hrs to go, and then overtime. Pressure is building... More popcorn!

It's not really as much of a fight as it looks. Nasdaq now up 1.5%. TSLA was outperforming the Nasdaq by 4X this earlier this morning. Now only up 2X. MM's having no issue holding this down.

This on the same day Rivian just recaptured a 40 billion market cap

 

[Artful Dodger]

CATL (Shanghai) Factory Update \ 4K \Mar.18 \ #005 | Wu Wa

 

[henchman24]

It's not really as much of a fight as it looks. Nasdaq now up 1.5%. TSLA was outperforming the Nasdaq by 4X this earlier this morning. Now only up 2X. MM's having no issue holding this down.

This on the same day Rivian just recaptured a 40 billion market cap

Complaining about 2x seems really short sighted to me, but that has been where Tesla has been during the whole rally this week... even when compared to other megacaps (6-8%). Tesla has had an amazing week... far better than most in the market. There is bound to be some resistance on a run like this. The fact that it is coming ~16% up is crazy good.

 

[CorneliusXX]

I took a look at your post history because of the reply to your post. So, my question to you, is when can I look forward to a constructive post from you - that I could learn something from? /s. I can look at SA to get the above.

remember - birds aren't real

 

[wtlloyd]

You could replace fracking with "GigaBerlin" and these claims would sound pretty familiar to us. Interesting.

The wave of noisy protests against shale gas in Lancashire and Yorkshire in recent years looked like a grassroots movement. It was anything but.

It was peopled by a middle class rent-a-crowd, ramped up by misleading scare stories from Friends of the Earth, amplified by the BBC and The Guardian, funded by wealthy hedge-fund billionaires and welcomed by incumbent energy firms worried by the prospect of new competition for renewables, nuclear or offshore gas.

How Putin spread fake news about fracking & branded drillers 'as bad as paedos'

WHEN Lorraine Allanson spoke up in favour of drilling for shale gas in her part of North Yorkshire, activists cut off her internet, called her a “whore” and linked her to a fake crime number. “Shou…

www.thesun.co.uk

It's The Sun. Guaranteed to be lies.
Murdoch & Co.
Wish the Brits had stomped him flat back in the 60's when he was just getting started.

 

[Curt Renz]

This is a quarterly options expiration day for stock index futures & options and indivdual stock optons, long known as Triple Witching Day. Let's laugh at the illiterate/compliant journalists who call it "quadruple" because an exchange that introduced a soon to fail contract asked them to help promote it. In mythology and literature, witches often came in threes, never fours.

Due to the large number of TSLA options contracts that expire today near the $900 strike price, hedge funds and market makers that wrote those contracts and have the ability to manipulate share prices, may want to try to keep TSLA a bit under $900 into the close.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Complaining about 2x seems really short sighted to me, but that has been where Tesla has been during the whole rally this week... even when compared to other megacaps (6-8%). Tesla has had an amazing week... far better than most in the market. There is bound to be some resistance on a run like this. The fact that it is coming ~16% up is crazy good.

My post was literally about today's action and the dynamics at play. So of course its short sighted in nature, I never said it wasn't.

As for this notion of being happy with this week's move in TSLA, sorry I'm not going to be ok with TSLA having a "nice week" when it's beaten down as a high multiple stock even though it isn't........especially when Wall St is gaming the system by having laughably low EPS estimates for Q1 and 2022/2023 to have an excuse to drive TSLA down.

The Q1 and 2022 EPS estimates for TSLA are a joke. It's a joke that Rivian and Lucid both have market caps of 40 billion+.

 

[henchman24]

My post was literally about today's action and the dynamics at play. So of course its short sighted in nature, I never said it wasn't.

As for this notion of being happy with this week's move in TSLA, sorry I'm not going to be ok with TSLA having a "nice week" when it's beaten down as a high multiple stock even though it isn't........especially when Wall St is gaming the system by having laughably low EPS estimates for Q1 and 2022/2023 to have an excuse to drive TSLA down.

The Q1 and 2022 EPS estimates for TSLA are a joke. It's a joke that Rivian and Lucid both have market caps of 40 billion+.

Tesla still is a high multiple stock... anything over ~25 is a high multiple. Unless you expect Tesla to be nearing $40 EPS, it will remain a high multiple. Now Tesla is high growth allowing a high multiple, but it will remain on that side for a long time to come. Therefore it will play in the realm of being treated like one is risky markets. It is the megacap leading this rally, and it will continue as long as the rally is happening. It is a real good risk/reward mix for the market.

Yeah Rivian and Lucid at those market caps are absurd (Rivian's cash though really makes a more compelling argument for them), but we are talking completely different leagues of stocks now. Tesla has moved ~120b in market cap this week.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Tesla still is a high multiple stock... anything over ~25 is a high multiple. Unless you expect Tesla to be nearing $40 EPS, it will remain a high multiple. Now Tesla is high growth allowing a high multiple, but it will remain on that side for a long time to come. Therefore it will play in the realm of being treated like one is risky markets. It is the megacap leading this rally, and it will continue as long as the rally is happening. It is a real good risk/reward mix for the market.

Yeah Rivian and Lucid at those market caps are absurd (Rivian's cash though really makes a more compelling argument for them), but we are talking completely different leagues of stocks now. Tesla has moved ~120b in market cap this week.

More like anything over a 50 P/E multiple is baseline for being considered a high multiple.....and even then, that's baseline in terms of the spectrum of high multiple.

Your definition of high multiple would mean Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, and even Google (just under 25 P/E multiple) would be "high multiple". I hate this notion of Wall St is "clueless" as to what's coming for Tesla's earnings this year, next year, and going forward. Hedge funds and institutions know damn well the dynamic at play here. They know Tesla's TTM P/E is going to drop like a rock this year but on the surface seems high until we get Q1 and then Q2's earnings on the book. They also use Forward P/E, not TTM. They know TSLA is trading at a Forward P/E of 86 today. They also know how to do basic math and take out the options related tax hit from Q4 which means Forward P/E is actually 64.

Also, P/E multiples are viewed as multiple years out. Not just a multiple of earnings expectations for this year. So no, TSLA doesn't have to hit $40 EPS this year or next to justify its P/E. Which is why I say Wall St is gaming the system by having insanely low EPS estimates for TSLA for 2022, 2023, and 2024.

And I could care less how much TSLA has gained in market cap. It lost 400 billion in market cap in a month. Tesla is also going to post EPS growth of 800-900% for Q1.

 

[Knightshade]

More like anything over a 50 P/E multiple is baseline for being considered a high multiple....

Isn't there No True Scotsman thread we can direct these "what is a high multiple" debates to?

It always reminds me of the TA guys arguing about which of the 937 different MAs is The Important One.

 

[henchman24]

More like anything over a 50 P/E multiple is baseline for being considered a high multiple.....and even then, that's baseline in terms of the spectrum of high multiple.

Your definition of high multiple would mean Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, and even Google (just under 25 P/E multiple) would be "high multiple". I hate this notion of Wall St is "clueless" as to what's coming for Tesla's earnings this year, next year, and going forward. Hedge funds and institutions know damn well the dynamic at play here. They know Tesla's TTM P/E is going to drop like a rock this year but on the surface seems high until we get Q1 and then Q2's earnings on the book. They also use Forward P/E, not TTM. They know TSLA is trading at a Forward P/E of 86 today. They also know how to do basic math and take out the options related tax hit from Q4 which means Forward P/E is actually 64.

Also, P/E multiples are viewed as multiple years out. Not just a multiple of earnings expectations for this year. So no, TSLA doesn't have to hit $40 EPS this year or next to justify its P/E. Which is why I say Wall St is gaming the system by having insanely low EPS estimates for TSLA for 2022, 2023, and 2024.

It is pretty basic finance that 25+ is high multiple as it typically exceeds the market as a whole. Big tech names get away with it because they continue to grow and are cash machines. Megacaps become megacaps because they are high p/e stocks that continue to dominate markets. That is why Tesla has joined them... the massive earnings growth coming up.

Yeah Tesla's PE will drop like a rock over the next two years, but we are still at very elevated levels. If Tesla had $40 EPS and was $1000 per share, that is pretty much the same valuation as Apple from that perspective. That is how high Tesla's PE still is... now I expect massive growth and that $40+ is 2024 away at the latest, but if there are questions over growth.. from supply chains, to costs, to consumers, to product mix, to flat out production misses, etc... those will get amplified when things get risky and we have a few pretty big risks right now with inflation, commodities, war, and potential recession. This is why Tesla gets hit hard when anything comes up, but also why it ramps quick when the risks ease.

I also don't think Tesla needs $40+ in the next two years to justify the share price. But with the current compression and discount rate increases coming, 75x this year's earnings and 90x next year's are my expectations of where the market will fall this year when things shake out... but we are still in the midst of that shake out.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

It is pretty basic finance that 25+ is high multiple as it typically exceeds the market as a whole. Big tech names get away with it because they continue to grow and are cash machines. Megacaps become megacaps because they are high p/e stocks that continue to dominate markets. That is why Tesla has joined them... the massive earnings growth coming up.

Yeah Tesla's PE will drop like a rock over the next two years, but we are still at very elevated levels. If Tesla had $40 EPS and was $1000 per share, that is pretty much the same valuation as Apple from that perspective. That is how high Tesla's PE still is... now I expect massive growth and that $40+ is 2024 away at the latest, but if there are questions over growth.. from supply chains, to costs, to consumers, to product mix, to flat out production misses, etc... those will get amplified when things get risky and we have a few pretty big risks right now with inflation, commodities, war, and potential recession. This is why Tesla gets hit hard when anything comes up, but also why it ramps quick when the risks ease.

I also don't think Tesla needs $40+ in the next two years to justify the share price. But with the current compression and discount rate increases coming, 75x this year's earnings and 90x next year's are my expectations of where the market will fall this year when things shake out... but we are still in the midst of that shake out.

You're talking about Apple as a mature iPhone manufacturer, Google today, or MSFT who pulls in rent like no other company other than Saudi Aramco.

Tesla is in the vertical growth phase, shooting up at 87% per year AND tossing off massive earnings. That's unprecedented so early on.

AMZN hit our market cap when they were making loless than zero dollars.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Rounding the final turn and heading for home we have hedge funds in the lead by a nose! Ken Griffin in a close second targeting 899.99!

 

[Oveeus]

I've been thinking about the price increase of late... lucky Hertz is sitting on hundreds of millions in gains purely from their order date.

Think about it... 100k vehicles at Sep/Oct price (or probably even earlier as they most likely submitted their order to Tesla prior Oct announcement). Let's say they got 20k delivered. The remaining 80k order, at even just $3000 difference is a paper gain of 240million if they were to take delivery, and sell them right away at Tesla current price without any markup.

And they say car is a depreciating asset.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

It is pretty basic finance that 25+ is high multiple as it typically exceeds the market as a whole. Big tech names get away with it because they continue to grow and are cash machines. Megacaps become megacaps because they are high p/e stocks that continue to dominate markets. That is why Tesla has joined them... the massive earnings growth coming up.

Yeah Tesla's PE will drop like a rock over the next two years, but we are still at very elevated levels. If Tesla had $40 EPS and was $1000 per share, that is pretty much the same valuation as Apple from that perspective. That is how high Tesla's PE still is... now I expect massive growth and that $40+ is 2024 away at the latest, but if there are questions over growth.. from supply chains, to costs, to consumers, to product mix, to flat out production misses, etc... those will get amplified when things get risky and we have a few pretty big risks right now with inflation, commodities, war, and potential recession. This is why Tesla gets hit hard when anything comes up, but also why it ramps quick when the risks ease.

I also don't think Tesla needs $40+ in the next two years to justify the share price. But with the current compression and discount rate increases coming, 75x this year's earnings and 90x next year's are my expectations of where the market will fall this year when things shake out... but we are still in the midst of that shake out.

Yeah.....multiples and how "expensive" they appear is all about expectations for future earnings over the next 5 years. Any way you want to cut it, Tesla is significantly undervalued here.

We can argue semantics about what is considered high multiple all day, but let's just take PEG, which is the most accurate representation of how expensive a stock's multiple is. As of todays' trading

Apple's PEG is 2.09
Tesla's PEG is 2.95

Current estimate on the Nasdaq website is for EPS (GAAP) 7.59 for 2022. TSLA likely going to print GAAP EPS of $13-14.

If analysts put out accurate EPS estimates for TSLA, TSLA's PEG would be significantly lower than Apple. Meaning, TSLA is significantly cheaper than Apple is right now despite Apple have a TTM P/E of 27 and TSLA having a TTM P/E of 183.

That's what I mean by Wall St gaming TSLA right now. And so no......I'm not going to be happy with TSLA being at 900/share.