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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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So to see all these share holders crapping on him and want him to fade away from Tesla is heart breaking for the guy.

I don’t think it’s heart breaking for Elon, quite the opposite.

This short term speculators that risked and got burned is not what Elon cares about.

I think he’s actually happy they got burned by hedgies and shorty, who got burned before and now they made up some losses, and who he completely despise. 😁
 
Elon liked this tweet from @avoigt about 45 minutes ago:


As an aside, my stupid meme from Friday went viral on Twitter over the weekend, and was liked by none other than Maye Musk herself! :D
As a not aside - non-native speaker Alex amusingly but almost certainly inadvertantly misused the word "overheard". In modern-day English, it is not the aural analog of the visual "overlooked". Rather, it is effectively the analogous opposite.
 
Recent Twitter post of EMSK - isn't it that selfsame media FUD ding Tesla ?

IMHO nothing wrong about CEO's expressing dissatisfaction or protests directly vs the local ( Calif Insurance agency head ) or federal (POTUS) folks when they think they're clearly wrong and against common sense/ US constituency (or Constitution, really) .

Else saying nothing is tantamount to acquiescing to / endorsin the status quo/ current order, aka corrupt SEC etc

EMSK.Cartoon.media.jpg


A few minutes after posting that one

EMSK.trucks.jpg
 
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Elon liked this tweet from @avoigt about 45 minutes ago:


As an aside, my stupid meme from Friday went viral on Twitter over the weekend, and was liked by none other than Maye Musk herself! :D

Even though I was a bit critical on the no-product product update, I didn’t get the hubbub about the $25k car. It’s been obvious that this is a 2025 or later model.

The compact Tesla is basically conditional on LFP batteries reaching a certain production scale, cost, and energy density. Until those milestones are imminent designing a “Model 2” is a waste of time. That right there is 80%+ of the work required to make it possible.

And in that context, by increasing the production scale (directly and indirectly), decreasing pack cost, and increasing energy density, Tesla actually is working on the $25k car.
 
It appears you are posting to this forum, but not reading it. That wastes everyone's time.

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

Edit:
My idea for a self-healing robot hand: Unplug it and plug in a new one.

44bb1b55de60b393496707265eca4828--real-robotics-prosthetic-hand.jpg
"Self-healing" does NOT have to apply to the individual machine. When the machines create a closed-loop where one will repair the other which repairs the other which repairs the other is reached then "Self-healing" is achieved. And when Machines do everything from the initial engineering, through mining and production then the "Reproduction" component of being "alive" is achieved. And recycling will make it a cleaner loop on more than one level.
 
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Indeed.

Here is a typical street in a European town. It is my street in my town, and the fact that it is in Europe would probably surprise 52% of voters, but that's not my concern. Inhabitants range from pensioners to surgeons, via electricians, engineers, teachers, drug-addicts, chemists. About half are house-owners, half renting. The average house price in this street is precisely the same as the national average. In short this is an utterly average town street. Go into a European (or Asian) large city and it gets a lot more congested.

This is mid-day, mid-week, mid-winter. The street doesn't get any emptier than this all year. All the 3-4 bed terraced houses on the right have a 5m frontage and rely entirely on street parking. Many are 2-car households but the average is probably 1.5 cars/house as some houses have no cars. The houses on the left are 5-7 bed and have off-street parking for ~4 cars each. The streets in this area are absolutely at capacity for parking.

I've drawn a 5m frontage on the wall. The Skoda Roomster with the hidden number plate (not mine) is 4.2m long. A VW Golf mk IV is 4.2m long. A Peugot 107 is 3.4m long. A Tesla 3 is 4.7m long, and a Tesla Y is also 4.7m long. So too is my VW Passat 4.7m long and it is very much more difficult for me to find a parking space in the evening than when I drove a Golf - the extra 0.5m makes for an enormous reduction in the number of available parking space options.

The first Tesla was purchased in this street last month. The owner sold a 3-year old Audi SUV for more than they paid for it, and bought a Tesla model 3. Their commute used to cost them £15 (USD 20) in fuel, now it costs them £1.50. They are fortunate as they own one of the houses with off-street parking and own their garden so can run a cable to their charger - very few people in this street can do this (most either rent their homes and/or are on-street parkers). Doubly fortunate as the nearest Tesla Supercharger is 60-miles away (120-mile round-trip).

Nobody in this street has a 'truck'. The full-size vans are those of visiting trades working on jobs. It would probably be socially unacceptable to try to park a truck (or a full size van) here routinely overnight unless one had a real good reason. The trades who live in the street only park small vans here overnight (4.5m length) though the issue is not just the length but also the width. (Cybertruck is 5.9m long x 2.0m wide.) Trying to get home for supper is no fun if the only parking space is 3m long and you are in a 6m vehicle.

>> Tesla will do a car that is smaller than a 3/Y, if only because their own employees will demand it in Europe/Asia as otherwise they can't park.

>>Tesla will need to massively expand the Supercharger network, if only because their own employees will demand it in Europe/Asia as otherwise they can't charge.


View attachment 762187
Elon CURRENTly Will not DO a car that is smaller than 3/Y for 25,000.
 
16128

Wow, I find that really surprising! When I spend the money on any major investment, let alone one as expensive as a Tesla (or most new cars for that matter), I research the crap out of it. In fact, that's why I'm on this form as well as some Tesla FB pages and other forums, to learn (I don't own an EV, but plan to for my next car). I do see some people on those forums considering putting off deliverables, but then, these are the more knowledgeable, enthusiast buyers. I compare an Freemont car vs an Austin car as a current gen iPhone vs one a generation back. Either will do the job and most users will never know the difference. If I go into the store to get the new gen and they say, all I have is the old one, but you can have it for the same price...I'm probably going to wait. And if I find I've been sold the old version without being told there is something better available, I wouldn't be happy. But, frankly, that's just me-most people aren't as anal before they spend their money-and I'm not saying that's a bad thing.
Welcome in! You are doing exactly what I did about a year ago, when I started to think a Tesla might be possible for me. Join the forums where the people who _actually have them_ hang out, and see what they are talking (and complaining) about. Helps cut through the maze of misinformation out there.
I made my choice after several months of reading and thinking about if I could handle a car company this different, particularly the no-dealership model.
I bought the Model Y and have been quite happy. Thrilled, to be more accurate.
I also considered waiting for the "next big thing" like 4680's but realized there is always a "next big thing" and today's Teslas, to quote an owner I met, "make every other car look stupid". So I didn't wait.
May you come to a decision that is right for you!
 
Even though I was a bit critical on the no-product product update, I didn’t get the hubbub about the $25k car. It’s been obvious that this is a 2025 or later model.

The compact Tesla is basically conditional on LFP batteries reaching a certain production scale, cost, and energy density. Until those milestones are imminent designing a “Model 2” is a waste of time. That right there is 80%+ of the work required to make it possible.

And in that context, by increasing the production scale (directly and indirectly), decreasing pack cost, and increasing energy density, Tesla actually is working on the $25k car.
I agree with you. I think part of the issue is that there has been a lot of conjecture on some sites that Tesla China is already developing the "$25,000 car", and that at least prototypes were imminent and production possible in the not too distant future. Lots of expectations being based on hopes and dreams, more than facts.
 
Indeed.

Here is a typical street in a European town. It is my street in my town, and the fact that it is in Europe would probably surprise 52% of voters, but that's not my concern. Inhabitants range from pensioners to surgeons, via electricians, engineers, teachers, drug-addicts, chemists. About half are house-owners, half renting. The average house price in this street is precisely the same as the national average. In short this is an utterly average town street. Go into a European (or Asian) large city and it gets a lot more congested.

This is mid-day, mid-week, mid-winter. The street doesn't get any emptier than this all year. All the 3-4 bed terraced houses on the right have a 5m frontage and rely entirely on street parking. Many are 2-car households but the average is probably 1.5 cars/house as some houses have no cars. The houses on the left are 5-7 bed and have off-street parking for ~4 cars each. The streets in this area are absolutely at capacity for parking.

I've drawn a 5m frontage on the wall. The Skoda Roomster with the hidden number plate (not mine) is 4.2m long. A VW Golf mk IV is 4.2m long. A Peugot 107 is 3.4m long. A Tesla 3 is 4.7m long, and a Tesla Y is also 4.7m long. So too is my VW Passat 4.7m long and it is very much more difficult for me to find a parking space in the evening than when I drove a Golf - the extra 0.5m makes for an enormous reduction in the number of available parking space options.

The first Tesla was purchased in this street last month. The owner sold a 3-year old Audi SUV for more than they paid for it, and bought a Tesla model 3. Their commute used to cost them £15 (USD 20) in fuel, now it costs them £1.50. They are fortunate as they own one of the houses with off-street parking and own their garden so can run a cable to their charger - very few people in this street can do this (most either rent their homes and/or are on-street parkers). Doubly fortunate as the nearest Tesla Supercharger is 60-miles away (120-mile round-trip).

Nobody in this street has a 'truck'. The full-size vans are those of visiting trades working on jobs. It would probably be socially unacceptable to try to park a truck (or a full size van) here routinely overnight unless one had a real good reason. The trades who live in the street only park small vans here overnight (4.5m length) though the issue is not just the length but also the width. (Cybertruck is 5.9m long x 2.0m wide.) Trying to get home for supper is no fun if the only parking space is 3m long and you are in a 6m vehicle.

>> Tesla will do a car that is smaller than a 3/Y, if only because their own employees will demand it in Europe/Asia as otherwise they can't park.

>>Tesla will need to massively expand the Supercharger network, if only because their own employees will demand it in Europe/Asia as otherwise they can't charge.


View attachment 762187
Nailed it. it's not about $25k vs $45k. If the mission is to replace ICE with EV, a smaller form factor is essential for 1/2-2/3rds of the world market.
 
It's popular to rant about how humans are bad drivers, but the reality is autonomous driving tech has a very high bar to get over. Humans are not bad drivers. Humans are amazingly good drivers. That humans can take in the dizzying chaos of a road, process it, and get from point A to point B with but one fatality every 100 million miles, is amazing. And that's including drunk drivers, sleepy drivers, old cars with poor safety, and badly designed high-speed roads. If you narrow it down to conscientious drivers in modern cars with safely engineered roads, the fatality rate is probably 1 in several billion miles.
 
Charge Stats an impressive addition to the app (at least on iOS). Quite a bit of data and depth of customization to your rate plan and charging habits. Definitely check it out. I can see this assisting when talking to prospective buyers….”Check out my gas savings on my app” instead of “Well according to the spreadsheet I put together to track my gas savings….”
 
Even more impressive is that Switzerland has no incentives for EV’s, and Model 3 still became the best selling car.
Even better news - Model 3 is the best selling car of any power train in Europe for December.

"In December 2021, the European new car market contracted by 22% with the Tesla Model 3 the best-selling car model in Europe."

 
Weekend OT - hope it's okay.

Following a small danish YT channel presenting reviews of EV. The two hosts reviewing the EV6. They like it a lot in general, but they are clueless why the EV6 isn't able to pre-condition the battery before fast charging. As one of the hosts states: "But this problem they will be able to solve through an OTA update in the future, I bet. Should be easy."

Meeeh. Not so sure 'bout that.

Bullish on Tesla. Working OTA updates since 2012. This matters.

Wish you a great week.
 
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@DaveT is always one of the best Tesla YouTubers, but he's been knocking it out of the park recently with his bite sized 5 minute clips. Perfect for when you don't have a full 30 minutes to an hour to spend. If after a rough few weeks in the market you need to cut through the short term nonsense about the conference call and remind yourself why you've invested for the long term, you need to watch.
 
It may be possible with the current bleeding edge technology to create a robot, which could fetch materials from a warehouse. But what would that robot cost? My WAG is that at least 100 kUSD. Why would you rather not pay someone $ 10/hour to do that?
My guess is more like $20k - $10k hardware, $10k software.
Batteries 1/20 of a Model 3, Raw materials 1/50 of a model 3, assembly 1/5 of a Model 3.

Charge time 1 hour per day. Operational working like 23/365 x 10 years.

Tesla may own the bots, charging costs paid by user, Tesla chsrges $3-$5 per hour depending on the task.

My guess is that this might be profitable.

My rough calculation is that the bot cost Tesla around $0.24 per hour.

Maybe that is why Elon thinks there is no limit to the size of the economy.
 
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It appears you are posting to this forum, but not reading it. That wastes everyone's time.

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

Edit:
My idea for a self-healing robot hand: Unplug it and plug in a new one.

44bb1b55de60b393496707265eca4828--real-robotics-prosthetic-hand.jpg
Yep lots of progress in the field of prosthetics. I saw the other one you posted as well. I sold corporate IG solutions and learned an amazing amount from many clients, from tunnel boring to tires, to fuel injectors to bananas to robots. t was then that I learned how hard it was. It's hard. Skin, it turns out, is amazing; combined with muscles and tendons and bone the hand is just amazing. That was my big takeaway over 7 years ago. If something had happened where a robot had practical hand movement, dexterity, partial speed, and tactile sense it would be ground breaking and well reported.

The issue isn't the NN models. The issue is the hand. Look at what Boston Dynamics does.
1643570947727.png



The hand has been a target for decades. Longer than NNs. The rubicks cube thing you posted was solved years ago by a robot...not using hands at blinding speed. The hands add complexity to the NN for sure but it is really the other stuff that I understand to be an issue...at least it was years ago.

You made me look but I'll stand by everything I've said on the bot.

One of the USA's leading researchers:

That's just 1 approach, there are lots like it. We have lots of research in the USA at places like MIT, Carnegie, Stanford etc but not so much success at scale. Korea is full of robotic companies and I suspect actual practical solutions to emerge from there or China. It is not, as you intimate, a field in which I know nothing. I know enough to say...whoa. I don't believe it. EVs I believed in and spent $100k on studies to see if I should launch an EV firm back in 2006, thank goodness I stopped there. FSD I view as inevitable, I think Tesla will get there first but I don't think it will be so soon and I am not at all sold on robotaxis- the more I see Tesla challenges on getting sufficient SC up and going and on solar side of things the more I feel that robotaxi may best be done by a third party that is more service oriented.

Tesla has not revolutionized solar. I don't see that they have any particular competency in robotics to say they'll solve a problem others have struggled to solve. It's not rockets where we knew we could launch and land a rocket upright. It was doing so profitably. It's not EVs. The auto industry began with EVs. It is not boring where lots of companies can bore a tunnel, they just made really large tunnels. Boston Dynamics and others are full of really smart people...and they haven't solved the hand problem ...yet. Somebody will. I just would agree with that researcher that says in 20-50 years. But what does he know vs a poster on TMC?