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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
woodisgood
Optimustic Pessimist
I can never let the knife just hit the darn floor now can I??
Bloody hands and now nothing to do.
Bloody hands and now nothing to do.
I think you may be on the wrong forum.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
I don't hare anyone saying they are buying today. Awfully quiet.
Can't wait to see the correction applied to my newest call options. 
Fortunately, they are 400-600 range and spread out in time. So... nothing I can do now and plenty of chairs to nest. Zero dry powder AND Bob warned me. However, if there is a pop coming, I will miss nothing!
David Lee gave his motivational pitch on HODLing TSLA yesterday. I knew he was preparing us for today when I watched it.
Fortunately, they are 400-600 range and spread out in time. So... nothing I can do now and plenty of chairs to nest. Zero dry powder AND Bob warned me. However, if there is a pop coming, I will miss nothing! David Lee gave his motivational pitch on HODLing TSLA yesterday. I knew he was preparing us for today when I watched it.
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
Don't be so harsh on him. Every hunter knows that observing the prey is valuable to becoming a better hunter. It's always preferable to watch someone demonstrate how not to do it than to be that person doing it wrong with your own money. You can actually learn more from this than by watching people doing it well.
In my opinion, there's no way today will be capitulation. If it's going to get really ugly, it will be after earnings
Stretch2727
Engineer and Car Nut
They say most productive but I think they really mean the most output. There is no productivity measures in the article such as output per employee etc. Typical mass media confusing things as usual.
The real point of the article is that Tesla made 8550 cars per week in Fremont. Toyota did 8427 per week in Georgetown Kentucky. My guess is Tesla has a lot more employees in Fremont than Toyota in Kentucky with all the vertical integration at Tesla. Always difficult to compare apples to apples and when you throw in the differences with electric cars even harder to compare.
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
I would wager that's 95% due to members already being fully invested and only 5% due to fear.
The sign that I had over-estimated TMC members would be people reporting they were selling.
Phobi
Member
My car (not even on 10.9 yet) drove itself from my kid's school back to my house his morning. The only thing I touched was the volume button. Ok, I feel better.
I'll be buying some today. Had some funds waiting to settle from last week that from starting to convert shares to options.
ZachF
Active Member
I think we could get a strong pop AH from earnings if they’re as strong as they look like they will be, but I think the story of the next 2-3 months will be macros dragging it down.
Can you imagine how the auto market in general is reacting if this is a recession. ICE sales would be affected even further - maybe a silver lining to get this transition over and done. Glass half full today.
⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️
Village Idiot
Trying to figure out what to sell to get more cash. Everything is down substantially this morning. Bought a measly 6 TSLA shares so far.
Goodness me, I will be buying the dip today 15mins to go...
I don't have a lot of fresh powder so I will continue my plan from last week:
- I used to have 500 Apple shares. They have dipped the least but also have the least room for growth imo so I have been selling these off. I will sell the last 100 today
- I have $100k of emergency savings, I think I will use half of this now, and half for any greater dips.
- I am going to buy around 50 Tesla shares in the $800s (I already have 11,050) and I want to buy some more Netflix and Square which are on offer imo
- I have quite big positions in Amazon and Google that have also dipped but not as much as the growth stocks, so they will be next on my list of things to sell if Tesla goes lower. Someone here might remember that I did the opposite just a few months ago. When Tesla hit $1,200 I sold a few hundred shares and bought Amazon and Google. So now I am doing the opposite. As Tesla has dipped twice as fast as Google and Apple I get to "pocket" the difference. I've been using Amazon as a hedge for Tesla volatility quite well over the past few years
Good luck everyone!
15mins to go...I don't have a lot of fresh powder so I will continue my plan from last week:
- I used to have 500 Apple shares. They have dipped the least but also have the least room for growth imo so I have been selling these off. I will sell the last 100 today
- I have $100k of emergency savings, I think I will use half of this now, and half for any greater dips.
- I am going to buy around 50 Tesla shares in the $800s (I already have 11,050) and I want to buy some more Netflix and Square which are on offer imo
- I have quite big positions in Amazon and Google that have also dipped but not as much as the growth stocks, so they will be next on my list of things to sell if Tesla goes lower. Someone here might remember that I did the opposite just a few months ago. When Tesla hit $1,200 I sold a few hundred shares and bought Amazon and Google. So now I am doing the opposite. As Tesla has dipped twice as fast as Google and Apple I get to "pocket" the difference. I've been using Amazon as a hedge for Tesla volatility quite well over the past few years
Good luck everyone!
CLK350
Member
For the TA inclined folks here, this latest from Avi Gilbert the Elliott Wave specialist
" ..
Now, if you are terribly concerned that many of these bear market calls are correct, allow me to explain to you that, while it is “possible” that they are right, it is not at all probable. Let’s take a moment to review the really big picture to understand why I say this. But, I must warn you. If you are seeking an emotional post that will support your larger degree bearish bias, please stop reading right now, as you ain’t gonna get it from me.
On the monthly SPX chart, you can clearly see that the market has not completed 5 waves off the March 2020 low. And, in order for us to complete a high probability topping pattern, we do need 5 waves.
Furthermore, the market has been following this pattern we have laid out since we struck wave [ii] in the fall of 2020. Since that time, we have come right into the target we set for wave 3 of [3] of [iii], which was 4440-4600 (and we topped at 4546), we dropped down to our ideal target for wave 4 of [3] of [iii] in the 4270SPX region, and then rallied 550 points to within 60 points of our ideal target for wave 5 of [3] of [iii]. While I can’t say that the market has hit every one our targets to the penny, it has been following the structure we have laid out quite perfectly, right down to the expectation of this pullback in the first quarter of 2022. But, this last rally only took us 90% of the way to our ideal target and was unable to make it that last 10%.
Moreover, take a look at the MACD on the monthly chart. It is only now starting to turn down. In order for us to be wary of a major top, I would expect some amount of divergence on this indicator. And, as I have been outlining in my live videos, I am looking for two negatively divergent readings in the coming two years. The first is going to be at the high of wave [iii], and the second will be at the high of wave [v]. But, at this time, we have no negative divergent top so it is not likely that the bull market is over..."
And ze part I can understand:
" .. To summarize my thoughts, the market has now left me with the conclusion that this pullback has not yet likely run its course. I am going to allow the market to bounce before I make any further strong conclusions about a bottom being in place yet. My expectation is that any bounce we potentially begin in the coming week will likely be wave iv of the c-wave of [4], especially as long as that bounce is clearly corrective in nature. But, overall, the market is pulling back well within the standard parameters and expectations we have for this type of pullback in a bull market, and I maintain a strong expectation for a continuation rally to begin over the coming weeks, which will likely be pointing us to the 5500SPX region later this year or early next. This bull market is likely far from dead and any reports if its demise are greatly exaggerated and quite premature. "
I maintain my (rational) odds of 50/50 for a significant bump up in the coming weeks : D
" ..
Now, if you are terribly concerned that many of these bear market calls are correct, allow me to explain to you that, while it is “possible” that they are right, it is not at all probable. Let’s take a moment to review the really big picture to understand why I say this. But, I must warn you. If you are seeking an emotional post that will support your larger degree bearish bias, please stop reading right now, as you ain’t gonna get it from me.
On the monthly SPX chart, you can clearly see that the market has not completed 5 waves off the March 2020 low. And, in order for us to complete a high probability topping pattern, we do need 5 waves.
Furthermore, the market has been following this pattern we have laid out since we struck wave [ii] in the fall of 2020. Since that time, we have come right into the target we set for wave 3 of [3] of [iii], which was 4440-4600 (and we topped at 4546), we dropped down to our ideal target for wave 4 of [3] of [iii] in the 4270SPX region, and then rallied 550 points to within 60 points of our ideal target for wave 5 of [3] of [iii]. While I can’t say that the market has hit every one our targets to the penny, it has been following the structure we have laid out quite perfectly, right down to the expectation of this pullback in the first quarter of 2022. But, this last rally only took us 90% of the way to our ideal target and was unable to make it that last 10%.
Moreover, take a look at the MACD on the monthly chart. It is only now starting to turn down. In order for us to be wary of a major top, I would expect some amount of divergence on this indicator. And, as I have been outlining in my live videos, I am looking for two negatively divergent readings in the coming two years. The first is going to be at the high of wave [iii], and the second will be at the high of wave [v]. But, at this time, we have no negative divergent top so it is not likely that the bull market is over..."
And ze part I can understand:
" .. To summarize my thoughts, the market has now left me with the conclusion that this pullback has not yet likely run its course. I am going to allow the market to bounce before I make any further strong conclusions about a bottom being in place yet. My expectation is that any bounce we potentially begin in the coming week will likely be wave iv of the c-wave of [4], especially as long as that bounce is clearly corrective in nature. But, overall, the market is pulling back well within the standard parameters and expectations we have for this type of pullback in a bull market, and I maintain a strong expectation for a continuation rally to begin over the coming weeks, which will likely be pointing us to the 5500SPX region later this year or early next. This bull market is likely far from dead and any reports if its demise are greatly exaggerated and quite premature. "
I maintain my (rational) odds of 50/50 for a significant bump up in the coming weeks : D
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