Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[steve3]

(MLK Day, 1/18 is a trading national holiday)

MLK Day is actually Mon 1/17 this year (it was on 1/18 last year) and as you said, stock and bond markets are both closed.

 

[Curt Renz]

Time - today: What Norway Can Teach the World About Switching to Electric Vehicles

Excerpt:

I live in a country far north, stretching way above the Arctic Circle, with long driving distances, rugged mountains and a very cold climate. Norway is not the most likely place to start a transportation revolution, but electric vehicles (EVs) are suddenly the new normal here. I would claim that if Norway can do it, any country can.

 

[GOVA]

looking at the drone flyover video, giga Austin is still working on parking lot pavement and roof insulation. The rumor of immediate production this week tuned out to be just rumor. neither Austin nor Berlin would be up running before er in late January.
Tsla was down a lot this week. Other growth stock like roku/sq were down more than 50% from ath. Tsla has better fundamentals and growth. But it’s not immune to macro. Short therm there will be multiple compression going on. Really don’t like those Twitter heads chanting immediate catalysts without solid evidence. Just lure ppl to trade on short term hopium.

I had to disagree. Pavements don't concern me. Tesla is already producing in Giga Austin. IMO.

 

[Joe F]

One good thing about selling off a significant chunk of TSLA in late 2020, and diversifying, is now I have a lot of crappy stocks I don't mind selling to buy these dips.

Cathie? Is that you?

 

[jhm]

S&P P/E sits at 29 today. Here's a chart of what historically the PE is vs the 10 year.
Historically P/E usually don't sit at 25+ for very long but usually sits around 20ish. Then again historically we don't have 10y bond trading at less than 2% very long either

I think the formula here is:

P/E = 1 / (Yield + 0.0265)

 

[Ohmster]

“Today, there is just a “car market,” and EVs are winning.”

No more “Tesla Killers:” It’s becoming increasingly difficult to distinguish the “EV market” from the mainstream auto segment — TESLARATI

Those who have followed the Tesla story for years would remember a time when practically every single concept car and production EV was dubbed as a “Tesla Killer.” The idea then was that while Tesla held the lead in electric cars due to its first-mover advantage, the company’s share in the EV...

apple.news

 

[Featsbeyond50]

Depends on what you want. The current product isn't worth $10K (or $12K). The "smarter" move is to take your $10K and buy 10 shares of TSLA until FSD is out of beta (quite awhile IMO). I suspect the SP will outpace Tesla's FSD price raises.

On the other hand, I have beta FSD because it's fun to keep tabs on the actual bleeding-edge product and to monitor the progress and I don't mind funding the mission a little

In ten years FSD will be standard like cruise control is now.

 

[EVDRVN]

Should the CA utilities and the CPUC criminals vote on the proposed solar changes it could kill solar in CA. They are proposing only paying wholesale rates on production and a monthly flat rate of 8$ per kW for the panels on your roof plus monthly fee on the meter. A 10kW system on PGE would pay $80 fee, $10 min meter fee, and instead of getting say $.45 per kwh in peak it would get $.04. This is one of the largest solar markets and it would kill Tesla business. Power walls are pricy and if not I would load up and pull the meter. There are demonstrations in SF and LA next Thur for those interested. I plan to support solar, Tesla, and the Solar workers. Only people that support this are utilities and electrician unions.

LA: Grand Park, Performance Lawn
200 N Grand Ave,
Los Angeles, CA 90012

SF: Civic Center Plaza
335 McAllister St
San Francisco, CA 94102

WHEN: Thursday, January 13th at 11:00 a.m.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

but I would strategically sell covered calls in those accounts.. pick what you are okay with parting with as a percentage of the overall managed portfolio assets, since its tax advantaged, if they get called you can just re=buy if you like with the available funds. pick and chose what event horizon you are targeting, earnings, fed announcements, etc.. with a decent CC strategy you should be able to easily boost overall portfolio performance by 4-6% a year nominal just by selling against ~20% of the portfolio and targeting 60-90 days periods.. so less work, LESS overall return but a nice way to measurably bump return

I feel this strategy requires lots of knowledge and decent sense of timing. Which years ago I didn't have. This is how I got called out of AMZN, FB, NFLX few years back, while they were rampaging.
I personally find writing out of money puts less headachy. As long as you go in modestly, calculate and allow for stock to lose 40-50% and you're still good with the margin. Enduring drops seems to me much easier than being called out on covered call and choosing new entry point.
Not sure how much of this is universal, and how much my own bias/weakness/strength...

 

[nativewolf]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1479611968587718657

I was openly asking myself earlier today when we would see the Energy side of Tesla show it's hand. The Lathrop Megapack facility broke ground in Sept. Recently, they added a ton of parking for new employees there. I would have to imagine that they're set to ramp production in late Q1 or Q2 and maybe the Energy side is materially adding to Tesla's revenue and profits by Q2 or Q3 with 2023 being the breakout year of Energy.

we glanced at the pricing earlier today before we saw this (for business planning purposes). They are still constrained and nothing much is available before 2023 and they won't make a commitment even at that. Good/bad problem to have. I have not idea what production has already been sold but what's interesting is that on the CFO side of things they have almost full visibility into revenue a year out. This is pretty amazing for a industrial company. The numbers get tweaked as opportunities allow, cost inflate or contract, credits sold or bought, etc. But overall they are sold out of cars almost a year out. They are sold out of residential powerwalls, there is a bit of solar installation available, the solar roof thing is ?, FSD is some time out ...not this year. So that makes revenue forecasting pretty simple. Battery constraints after battery constraints this year. 2023 is going to be interesting.

 

[jhm]

Cheer up. Tesla is now worth more than all the Bitcoin in the world.

 

[Accident]

Likely Wednesday January 26

Same day as the FOMC meeting with a possible rate hike announcement. Volatility

It might be a good day to sell way OTM calls and puts.

 

[deffu]

Same day as the FOMC meeting with a possible rate hike announcement. Volatility

It might be a good day to sell way OTM calls and puts.

Best scenario good macro + great earning. Tsla has a tendency to dip after earning. So selling way out of money call and puts is a safer play

 

[OrthoSurg]

Are we going to have another Monster Monday heading to earnings? This week was brutal.
+33% since December 22 till Monday than -14% since the fed possible earlier interest hike. Aren’t these excessive move up or down.

Let’s all sign a petition for a steady +0.5% daily increase

 

[PeterJA]

Tom warns about inflation, and says the safe haven is TSLA.

 

[Ogre]

We did. Again. But you have to ask yourself if you are okay with the basic features that it provides compared to the “coming soon” features like FSD city. Full FSD has been coming in a few months for 6 years. Who knows when it will arrive. I would like to see a solid level 2 or 3 system in the next year or two. I think full autonomous L4 or 5 is probably end of this decade.

Just my humble opinion and it’s definitely not popular here.

Seems to me L5 will be almost impossible. Too many edge cases.

Level 4 though? All they need to do is put up some geo-fences around the areas where they *know* it works and you have Level 4. There are thousands of miles of highway where they already do fine with the nag.

 

[CaliBear1]

Now, this is getting ridiculous...
It is one thing to make vaporware announcements of vehicles 5 years down the line for which they do not even have an early blueprint, just some vague idea.
But "projecting" product releases 12+ years into the future ?!?
They totally deserve to go bankrupt and NOT get bailed out before the end of this decade.

By that time Tesla will be selling heavy duty electric hover trucks and electric passenger aircraft!!!

 

[Fred42]

Did Elon really tweet that the price of FSD is increasing to $12k on Jan 17 in the US, as reported in another thread without a copy of the tweet?

 

[MartinAustin]

OK so I waited until last week to reserve a Cybertruck. I knew when I was doing it that I wouldn't be able to specify the variant, or the FSD option. Everyone reserving Cybertruck for the last few weeks has been unable to do that. The folks who reserved right at the reveal were able to lock in FSD for what was it, $8000? $6000? Ah well.

Fact is, $12000 is 96 months @ $199/month. That's quite a long time. I assert that it's not that horrible to do without the "lifetime FSD" option. Jf you sell or crash your Tesla you don't pay the whole $12000 if you've been making the monthly payments. If you sell your Tesla when it is 9yrs old you were only making payments for 1 extra year

Yes, monthly payment is going up, but fact is Tesla's prices are all over the place recently, and are likely going to fall over the next few years as manufacturing costs come down. I think it's a bit of a wash. Tesla's income was always going to swing away from up-front car sales over towards revenues from FSD.

 

[Open Interest]

Did Elon really tweet that the price of FSD is increasing to $12k on Jan 17 in the US, as reported in another thread without a copy of the tweet?

Yes he did.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1479590995595517958