Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StealthP3D]

CNBC is pushing the bubble popping scare today, giving lots of examples of bursting bubbles.
Then I had this vision of <someone> as a child.

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Yeah, bubble-popping was a big theme in the financial media in 1995, 1996 and 1997 too. It actually started back around 1992 if I recall. Apparently, MSFT and a bunch of other tech stocks were over-valued. The people who sold out in 1995 and 1996 had to endure watching the media talk about bubble popping in 1997 as their former tech stocks continued to soar. They also had to watch all through 1998 as tech stocks doubled, quadrupled and more.. Other people were becoming multi-millionaires as their own accounts sat in cash waiting for the bubble to pop. Then they had to watch through 1999 which was even worse (better) than 1998. Finally, in 2000, many years after the media warned, the tech bubble finally popped.

These things can take a long time to play out, much longer than one can imagine. You can watch too many of your best investing years passing you buy waiting for the bubble to pop like the media predicted. By the time it finally "pops" the deflated price might be higher than the price you sold at. It almost certainly will be if you sold a fast-growing company with growing profits. That's the fallacy of trying to call the top of the market.

 

[JohnnyEnglish]

I was wondering about that are we certain revenue is realized with the energy products are installed and ready to work.

It will depend on what Tesla is contracted to provide. However in most instances it is likely they will be contracted to provide an operational system. It should also be kept in mind that it is frequently the case for powerplants that there are penalties for delays in delivery relative to contracted delivery date.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Thought this might be of interest re solar and Fed incentives. These are the top google questions people ask.

To quote Google, this is the revised plan.... "Installing solar panels earns you a federal tax credit. ... In 2021, the ITC will provide a 26% tax credit for systems installed between 2020 and 2022, and 22% for systems installed in 2023.Sep 27, 2021"

We pulled the trigger 2 yrs ago bc before this extension saw the light of day, the incentive was about to drop to 19%, then something like 11%. Based on my actions, I'm in favor of allowing it to expire to provide some motivation (extend after only some tapering, if needed). Pushing it out IMO had an adverse effect on sales. People are waiting for the prices to come down and that's not really happening for a while now.

Keep in mind, only the Tesla tile roof is available, and all other "panels" are stuck on boats from overseas and hard to aquire... this is according to Tesla advisor about a week ago (looked into a new solar roof $ x10).

 

[SOULPEDL]

It will depend on what Tesla is contracted to provide. However in most instances it is likely they will be contracted to provide an operational system. It should also be kept in mind that it is frequently the case for powerplants that there are penalties for delays in delivery relative to contracted delivery date.

Related... anyone know if there's a similar penalty for Giga Berlin should they drag feet? Aren't penalties or remedies a standard section that must be addressed in practically any contract? (Besides the typical arbitration vs court clauses.) Otherwise there is no recourse (besides shame). And are these agreement terms public anywhere?

 

[larmor]

Just heard on NPR segment from White House climate change advisor advocating purchase of 'clean energy' vehicles and clean energy systems-- presumably solar and storage, sourced from US manufacturing. Really pushed that and said US government is a large customer and will make the transition, example given was edwards AFB with recent installation. Interestingly absent was the mention of unionized manufacturing of said products. Not surprised that mention of Tesla and its factories in fremont, reno, and buffalo remain absent. I know for a fact that Buffalo is in America, and Reno is at the edge of America, and well Fremont is close to America...

 

[ggr]

Mod: I just deleted 27 posts about Apple/Steve Jobs/PCs etc, including ones complaining about same, plus one about numerology. Please note: I have taken names. This is NOT a chat room. Followups will also be nuked. --ggr

 

[lascavarian]

Employee stock options are nothing like calls/puts. For Tesla employees, they represent the ability to purchase shares at a 15% discount to the price at either grant or execution, whichever is lower. This is hands down better than just giving shares as it guarantees a positive return. It also increases potential gains as Tesla can provide more options per person than gifted shares for the same cost due to basis difference.

As long as the worker can immediately convert to cash with a 15% gain this is a great deal and generous on the part of the company.

 

[kanweg]

So I'm clear, is this the calculus?

Elon flies to China = M2 Reveal (bc he's never missed one yet)
Elon doesn't fly to China = No reveal, something else.

Currently China requires inbound people to quarantine for 14 days. That would make it unlikely.

Of course, Some people may be more equal than others. ;-)

Still, it could be a nice newsworthy announcement, such as China being the first to use the 4680 batteries.

 

[canoemore]

can we finish with this stupid pennant already?

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Gee there’s an investor meeting happening as we speak and the stock gets sold off nonstop goin into it before any news/information from this investors meeting can be made public. Gary Blacks the first person with access to this information that’s posted it yet

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Some interesting tidbits from Gary Black. I don't know enough about the world of investor relations (IR) to know if this is a normal thing, or if Tesla is doing a pitch.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1468975136250507265

 

[redan]

Interesting China auto volume breakdowns. Model Y killing it across all categories, not just BEV:

Tesla Model Y best-selling premium SUV in China in Nov, CPCA data show

The Model Y ranked first with 23,117 units, followed by the Li ONE with 13,485 units and the Mercedes-Benz GLC with 12,269 units. The Nio ES6 ranked eighth with 4,713 units.

cnevpost.com

The Tesla Model Y sold 23,117 units in China in November, making it the best-selling premium SUV, the latest data from the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) showed.

The CPCA released Tesla China wholesale sales and export figures for November yesterday, but did not release a breakdown of Model 3 and Model Y sales in China, and today they became available.

 

[SOULPEDL]

I know for a fact that Buffalo is in America

Yes, but comprised mostly of Canadians out shopping for the day. Meanwhile, the Buffalo folks head to Canada (real beer, money expands in your wallet, and people are much friendlier. Buffalo is dual IMO.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Some interesting tidbits from Gary Black. I don't know enough about the world of investor relations (IR) to know if this is a normal thing, or if Tesla is doing a pitch.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1468975136250507265

They’ve done it before….I’m not a big fan of it.

I’d rather then just give guidance on earning calls where al investors get the information at the same time

 

[madodel]

Gee there’s an investor meeting happening as we speak and the stock gets sold off nonstop goin into it before any news/information from this investors meeting can be made public. Gary Blacks the first person with access to this information that’s posted it yet

Isn’t the TSLA nose dive do to a certain person selling huge amounts of chairs?

 

[SOULPEDL]

Isn’t the TSLA nose dive do to a certain person selling huge amounts of chairs?

We hope!

 

[bkp_duke]

Isn’t the TSLA nose dive do to a certain person selling huge amounts of chairs?

Doubtful. The current price is right in line with QQQ, AMD, other NASDAQ players. In the past when Elon sold, you could pretty readily pick it out of the chart as a substantial deviation.

 

[SOULPEDL]

NASDAQ x5 again.
"It's just the normal noises in here." (Pink Floyd).

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Doubtful. The current price is right in line with QQQ, AMD, other NASDAQ players. In the past when Elon sold, you could pretty readily pick it out of the chart as a substantial deviation.

Not really….though I don’t think it’s Elon selling. Every time we dip over the past 2 weeks someone says it’s Elon is selling, but it turns out to not be the case.

But it’s not following the macros. Just like most days the last 2 weeks, the stock gets pushed at key times

 

[Wicket]

It's not "hand-waving" to include all employee compensation. The options have intrinsic value when granted, even before the share price rises one dollar. But I do think the pay and compensation is no better at union shops even if one irrationally excludes that Tesla rewards their employees' efforts with the value they add to the company through stock options, If the compensation data is publicly available, and I doubt it is, I would like to see it but, from everything I've seen, it's a lot better working at Tesla. If it wasn't, they would unionize.

It's wrong for the government to treat companies differently based upon the decisions their employees make in their own best interest. The unions would love to get into Tesla but they can't even get enough votes to consider unionizing. The employees believe they are better off without a union. And I think it's pretty obvious the employees are correct.

This wasn't at all relevant or necessary to the question, in fact was specifically forewarned against, and spawned a predictable series of similar. Fortunately 22522 picked up the slack.