Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[CorneliusXX]

Dave Lee has a multi-tweet thread analyzing Elon's tax status, to which Elon agreed.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1460711147108245511

@DaveT thanks for this thread. While I agree with Elon's intent from his recent tweets, your message is far more powerful IMO. Elon/Tesla showing they will provide many multiples of tax benefits from the government assistance (no matter how broadly it is defined) is very positive and far harder to argue against than Elon's tweets. It proves Tesla is being a good citizen.

Additionally it is hard to argue against a 75% tax rate, it would be difficult to find a regular person who thought that wasn't enough.

 

[RobStark]

They've got a NDA preventing any outfits from publishing numbers from what I've gathered on the mach-e forums.

Edmunds says .99 G skidpad number for Mach-E GT Performance.

 

[ZachF]

I don't know if it's because Yahoo doesn't have an enterprise value listed for Rivian or if it's because Rivians Enterprise value is mathematically undefined but they are the only one on the spreadsheet with a N/A for the Enterprise Value in col Q.

Oh and before any Gilligans come along and tell me that Market Cap isn't Enterprise Value, please look at the RIGHT SIDE of the spreadsheet. Thank You.

Spoiler: The last time

The last time I posted a URL for this spreadsheet someone mansplained to me the difference between Marketcap and Enterprise Value and about 50 people here "liked" that mansplaining

because the link looks like Top 25 Automakers by Market Cap

as if you can't sort it alphabetically, or by zip code, or by anything else and still have the Enterprise Value listed

View attachment 733759


View attachment 733763

Rivian’s enterprise value is probably below its market cap, since it has a stack of post IPO cash, and I don’t think it has much of any debt yet.

 

[loquitur]

wow holy cow.

So he's just a one shot wonder kid. Man is pretty much reduced to a wsb player. Made enormous amount of money, then lose it all in numerous subsequent similar brts that didn't pan out.

Same with John Paulson. Made good on a "big short", ending up with $4B in 2010 ...
but then frittered away some with bets on gold, etc. 12 years later he's still even with 2010.
I know, not the same as losing it all again, but still ...

...Cue in the calls for Peter Lynch, or Elaine Garzarelli, or Robert Prechter -- making
a new wager to win again on the same, or something opposite, or something else entirely,
is a tough racket.

 

[Wicket]

I need to set as a goal getting a few million twitter followers so I can post something half cocked, wait for some enterprising person to convert it into useful material, and then say 'exactly'. This is a good strategy for us not quite geniuses.

 

[loquitur]

I need to set as a goal getting a few million twitter followers so I can post something half cocked, wait for some enterprising person to convert it into useful material, and then say 'exactly'. This is a good strategy for us not quite geniuses.

Exactly -- you can catch a bird by putting salt on its tail. But the first million twitter followers are the hardest.

 

[hobbes]

Interesting plot by Gary Black here: Volume of Elon´s sales as % float vs. change in TSLA stock price.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1460802866516484096

 

[hobbes]

To me it looks more like an Elliott Wave A-B-C correction beginning November 5th that may have been completed yesterday.

Had to google that, wikipedia has an article:

After the initial five waves forward and three waves of correction, the sequence is claimed to repeat on a larger degree and the self-similar fractal geometry to continue to unfold. The completed motive pattern should include 89 waves, followed by a completed corrective pattern of 55 waves.

Looks like this is going to take a while to unfold ..

"Elliot Wave degrees exhibiting self-similarity (from R.H. Elliot)"

 

[Sancho]

Isn’t FSD good enough already for autonomous highway driving?

And if so, isn’t Tesla already in position to transform commercial transport by having a driver take a truck to the closest interstate highway at each end of its journey? The cost per mile of the lion’s share of the trip (autonomous on the highway) should be a game changer for long distance transport.

 

[Artful Dodger]

jeezus this place is off its rocker! kinda love it. this clearly means we should be busting new highs again…

True.

Spoiler: 12 million pounds of thrust at liftoff

Jus' sayin'...

Last | 4:09 AM EST $1,069.00 ↑14.27 (+1.35%)

 

[Dangerous Fish]

Edmunds says .99 G skidpad number for Mach-E GT Performance.

Which tires are on the Mach-E GTP? Lateral grip is all about tyres, as is stopping distance, not about how good or bad the car itself is.

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1460888630008946689

Elon might pull this forward - give the masses a feel good feeling for Thanksgiving weekend by tweeting "all done".

 

[Artful Dodger]

(Still unsure about 23,737,050 vs 22.8M others are saying so that number is a bit slippery, but not much)

I'd like to extract and emphasize the larger consequence of Elon's uncompleted 10th milestone from his 2012 compensation plan: that is, achieving 30% Gross Margin over 4 consecutive qtrs.

We know that:

• Tesla has >30% G.M. in 2021Q3, and
• Elon has to execute his 2012 stock options by Aug 2022 (which is in Q3) or he loses them.

So 21Q3, 21Q4, 22Q1, 22Q2 are the quarters in which Tesla must average 30% G.M. for Elon to earn his final grant of ~2.1M shares to complete his 2012 compensation plan.

Significantly, the 10-Q for 2022-Q2 will be out by Aug 2022. This is the real deadline.

I would bet folding money right now that Tesla WILL maintain that 30% gross margin through 2022H1, with all the consequences that has for financials going forward. That's how Elon works. He plans to win.

Paging @The Accountant @mongo @st_lopes

Cheers!

 

[15Peter20]

Which tires are on the Mach-E GTP? Lateral grip is all about tyres, as is stopping distance, not about how good or bad the car itself is.

And vehicle mass, roll centre height, CofG amongst others.

I suspect the Mach-E is a pretty decent competitor to the MY, on headline figures anyway, and a more than decent competitor for ICE equivalents. As far as this forum is really concerned, however, I'd be amazed if Ford can make any money off the thing, let alone Tesla-eque margins (even before considering the cannibalisation of their ICE vehicles).

 

[Artful Dodger]

I see in tonight’s news stream a headline that reads “25% of adult Twitter users responsible for 97% of posts”.

For once, I am not using this post to denigrate Twitter. Rather, I wonder how other such groupings fare in this regard. Most specifically, how does this thread itself pencil out? Is there any way to determine?

Nope, sorry. There is absolutely no means to determine if this thread is used by adults.

<insert inappropriate middle-school humor here>

Cheers!

 

[mongo]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1460888630008946689

Elon might pull this forward - give the masses a feel good feeling for Thanksgiving weekend by tweeting "all done".

You normally don't modify a 10b5-1 plan.
His discretionary selling can, of course, change.

We know that:

• Tesla has >30% G.M. in 2021Q3, and
• Elon has to execute his 2012 stock options by Aug 2022 (which is in Q3) or he loses them.

So 21Q3, 21Q4, 22Q1, 22Q2 are the quarters in which Tesla must average 30% G.M. for Elon to earn his final grant of ~2.1M shares to complete his 2012 compensation plan.

Yep, but Elon cares more for the mission than his payout; which is good since trying to ramp two factories simultaneously may be a bit of a damper on the GM figure, depending on how the accounting works.
Note, the criteria is >=30% GM each of 4 consecutive quarters (average might imply over a period of 4 consecutive quarters).

 

[Artful Dodger]

Yep, but Elon cares more for the mission than his payout; which is good since trying to ramp two factories simultaneously may be a bit of a damper on the GM figure, depending on how the accounting works.

Indeed, this is why I suspect that both Berlin and Austin will produce only high margin performance versions of the Model Y during 2022H1.

Until Tesla get their local 4680 battery cell production ramped, there won't be massive numbers coming out of these factories. Might as well make the high margin cars while we ramp up.

I expect a Model Y performance with Shanghai/LG 2170s from Berlin, and possibly a Model Y Plaid with Fremont/Kato Rd 4680s from Austin. Volume is the big unknown. We could speculate that Kato Rd is at 5 GWh/yr right now, which would be enough cells for ~ 1K Plaid Y per week avg over 2022H1. But their high ASP will allow for good gross margins, especially if high demand allows Tesla to prioritize delivery orders to favor FSD purchases.

Paging @The Accountant : If Tesla does NOT use any bty cells from Austin in 2022H1, do accounting rules allow them to leave capital costs for the new bty factory on the Balance Sheet, w/o recording any expenses to the Income Statement? I think this is important for the gross margin calculation.

Cheers!

 

[Artful Dodger]

Nasdaq 100 Dec 21 (NQ=F)​

CME Delayed Price. Currency in USD
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As of 5:30AM EST. Market open.

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Pre-Market Low	$1,060.11 (04:00:01 AM)

 

[Prunesquallor]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1460888630008946689

Elon might pull this forward - give the masses a feel good feeling for Thanksgiving weekend by tweeting "all done".

Subsequent tweet:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1460896467837665283

 

[nativewolf]

52% of adult children live with their parents.

52% of young adults in the US are living with their parents. That's the highest share since the Great Depression | CNN

The number of American young adults living with their parents is at or near an all-time high, and the coronavirus pandemic is likely the reason, according to a new analysis.

www.cnn.com

27.4 million adults qualify for the 1400 Stimulus Check

Millions of Adult Dependents Qualify for Latest Stimulus After Missing Last Year’s Payments. Here’s How to Get Your Money

Students and other adult dependents may qualify for this round of stimulus payments — here’s how to find out if you qualify.

time.com

--

Combine the data and you will find a lot of unproductive "adults" with a large amount of free time that are certainty not working towards extending the consciousness of humanity to new frontiers.

This is why I knew Elon's poll was DOA - I knew the cesspool that was voting.

Elon himself I would estimate spends 30 minutes reading a day, and five minutes posting. That's not an issue.

Demographics of this thread:
1.) Tesla owners
2.) Tesla Investors
3.) Investors who seek to be informed

.. tend to be more likely to lead productive lives and tend to not post on Twitter on average. Influencers/personalities that use Twitter for business, are exempted.

Productive people on average engage in higher quality discussions.

That is your take away from the headline Mr. Audubon.

My adult son works with me, about 14 hours a day mostly. Lives at home. We can't afford to pull cash out of the business to pay enough salary for him to take his own place. So that's just 1 example that shows that at best you post is woefully ignorant of the younger generation. At best but I would fear the worst.

The multi generational home is the norm throughout the world. The fact that it is not the norm here is not a sign of societal well being. Why are so many startups founded in the parents garage? Because that is where they lived. I'm a bit of an older fart but I found your post offensive.