Lunch money theft happens at 8% down or $800.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Bet TSLA
Active Member
RobDickinson
Active Member
Nothing says ready for public service like hiding your entire twitter history
That Barclays dude was a sensationalism seeking moron. Zero value brought to the table.
The rest of questions were great and we heard equaly great answers. Great job.
This brings the no Elon situation - this was good. Not only because other great minds could perticipate but also we all need to get accustomed to less/no Elon at every call.
Tesla is fine, they have been doing magic for years and there a lot of incredibly talented people at every level. Much more than 'meets the eye'.
They had mentioned that we have hit the turning point with EVs on the adoption S curve. The great thing is that ~99% of it is Teslas.
The wait times for every model are long due to increasing. Looking forward to the end of next quarters / years and seeing how things develop.
The rest of questions were great and we heard equaly great answers. Great job.
This brings the no Elon situation - this was good. Not only because other great minds could perticipate but also we all need to get accustomed to less/no Elon at every call.
Tesla is fine, they have been doing magic for years and there a lot of incredibly talented people at every level. Much more than 'meets the eye'.
They had mentioned that we have hit the turning point with EVs on the adoption S curve. The great thing is that ~99% of it is Teslas.
The wait times for every model are long due to increasing. Looking forward to the end of next quarters / years and seeing how things develop.
Knightowl
Whovian
Krugerrand
Meow
Ok, so I might care a little bit. Would beDown $10/share in after hours. Looks like you're gonna have to scratch that planned observatory right off your mountaintop plans!
Maybe by next Monday you could put out bids for something more suitable:
pointless to have a helipad without a helicopter
to go with it.
Benzinga - 40 minutes ago: Tesla California Registrations Jump 58%, Model 3 Rides Out On Top
Excerpt:
Tesla Inc’s electric vehicle registrations jumped 58.3% to 30,514 vehicles in the third quarter in the home state of California, compared with a year ago, according to automotive research firm Cross-Sell.
Excerpt:
Tesla Inc’s electric vehicle registrations jumped 58.3% to 30,514 vehicles in the third quarter in the home state of California, compared with a year ago, according to automotive research firm Cross-Sell.
I followed her right after the announcement so I’m still in.
Last edited:
Missy "Professor Umbridge" Cummings. I envision her exactly like Professor Umbridge.
Q2 it was 3-4 days after earnings before Yahoo started showing the p/e change and the price spiked on that day.
uujjj2
Member
So Elon Musk is not on the call. Mixed feelings about that. On the one hand it's great to have him talk about the vision. Lots of great business wisdom has dropped on those calls (e.g the "moats are lame" speech) that could only come from Elon. On the other hand the quarterly calls are where he gets Tesla into trouble by overpromising. Then there's the occasional meltdown (e.g. Q1 2020).
Interesting. Tasha Keeney said they are giving 50% probability of FSD fruition in the next 5 years. Pretty bearish I would think.
Welcome to the dark side.
trying to do something useful with some of my TSLA winnings I decided to buy a complete gardening system from Ryobi, for my gardener. He already has and uses an electric leaf blower, because gas ones are barred here in Del Mar,Ca.. He seems very excited about going electric early and dumping gas.
perfecting FSD and having FSD approved for Level 5 widespread use are two different milestones. The first is within Teslas grasp, the 2nd may take years for widespread approval where cars are allowed to drive themselves without a human onboard (outside of trial environments) I think Tasha's 50% probability within 5 years is realistic.
RobDickinson
Active Member
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
y
So Zach said something really interesting on the call when asked about revenue recognition for FSD.
Specifically that they'd recognize revenue for a given bunch of folks when:
They delivered the features they were promised at the time they bought it
and it was generally available to them.
That second one is no shock- a few folks thought they'd try some nonsense of recognizing a few beta testers but it was always pretty clear only wide release gets revenue recognition.
The first bit though confirms something I and some others have been saying for a LONG while now.
FSD is not a single product.
FSD sold prior to ~March 2019 is an entirely different product from what has been sold since then.
Delivering FSDBeta- which is explicitly L2 driving on city streets- completes what post 3/19 buyers are "owed" based on what was promised during their sale.
I think 50% is quite low for how likely they are to deliver that on current vehicles, and likely quite a bit sooner than 5 years-- then the remaining FSD revenue for post 3/19 buyers can be fully recognized.... (in the US anyway- overseas there's a lot more regulatory hurdles potentially- but far as we know most of the FSD revenue has been in the US anyway so that's fine)
Pre 3/19 buyers though were sold, at minimum, L4 driving. Which has seemed increasingly unlikely to be deliverable on current HW (in particular HW3 isn't sufficient for redundant operation, and increasingly the cameras look like they might not be sufficient in one or more ways). It's getting into the weeds to go much beyond that here (there's a whole FSD section for such discussion)--- but don't be surprised if some of that "old" FSD deferred revenue remains there for quite a while (or potentially needs to get refunded some day if they decide it's not worth trying to upgrade those cars to the degree they find is needed to be able to deliver the original promise.... we already know by CT they'll be using next-gen cameras, and likely more of them em in more locations for example on top of HW4).
So Zach said something really interesting on the call when asked about revenue recognition for FSD.
Specifically that they'd recognize revenue for a given bunch of folks when:
They delivered the features they were promised at the time they bought it
and it was generally available to them.
That second one is no shock- a few folks thought they'd try some nonsense of recognizing a few beta testers but it was always pretty clear only wide release gets revenue recognition.
The first bit though confirms something I and some others have been saying for a LONG while now.
FSD is not a single product.
FSD sold prior to ~March 2019 is an entirely different product from what has been sold since then.
Delivering FSDBeta- which is explicitly L2 driving on city streets- completes what post 3/19 buyers are "owed" based on what was promised during their sale.
I think 50% is quite low for how likely they are to deliver that on current vehicles, and likely quite a bit sooner than 5 years-- then the remaining FSD revenue for post 3/19 buyers can be fully recognized.... (in the US anyway- overseas there's a lot more regulatory hurdles potentially- but far as we know most of the FSD revenue has been in the US anyway so that's fine)
Pre 3/19 buyers though were sold, at minimum, L4 driving. Which has seemed increasingly unlikely to be deliverable on current HW (in particular HW3 isn't sufficient for redundant operation, and increasingly the cameras look like they might not be sufficient in one or more ways). It's getting into the weeds to go much beyond that here (there's a whole FSD section for such discussion)--- but don't be surprised if some of that "old" FSD deferred revenue remains there for quite a while (or potentially needs to get refunded some day if they decide it's not worth trying to upgrade those cars to the degree they find is needed to be able to deliver the original promise.... we already know by CT they'll be using next-gen cameras, and likely more of them em in more locations for example on top of HW4).
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
No one knows where the upper limit is but the higher it becomes, the more your shares will be worth (within limits)! I think Elon is set on increasing production speed and volume efficiencies well beyond anything achieved by any manufacturer previously. The learnings will be useful on Mars to reduce the size of necessary factories, probably long after Elon is dead.
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