Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[jhm]

Ten point range for a really long time??? Hard to believe you've been in these parts since 2014.

I know. I used to be a handsome young man when I first started posting on TMC. Now look at me!

 

[Unpilot]

Just made a bet...(after several beers).... that TSLA would be over 900 by end of year.

It will be so.

 

[Tyler34]

Just made a bet...(after several beers).... that TSLA would be over 900 by end of year.

It will be so.

Why so bearish?

 

[RobDickinson]

FSD will be rolling out end of the Q to the general US public and potentially in Europe.
Austin and Berlin will be starting production ramps before the end of the year.
Tesla will be looking at 850k and up actual sales in a year thats trashed all the competition.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

The single best way to get clicks is to criticize Tesla. Just leave it be.

 

[StealthP3D]

I wonder if they say the same thing about the 911?

"Really Porsche, we've seen this car before, its [checks notes] 50 years old and you are still trying to sell the same old car! Ok you've changed the chassis, engine, interior, all the glass, the wheels and the body (a bit) but come on, give us a new car!"

Every year Chevy comes out with a new model year Corvette, Edmunds raves about it, how much power it has and points out every improvement, no matter how minor.

Tesla does a complete engineering re-design of the Model S (only 10 years old), adds a whole 'nuther motor (three motors!), more range and makes the fastest production car ever made and Edmonds says "The Tesla Model S Plaid is nothing more than a marketing exercise designed to draw attention to an aging car.".

Edmunds is a hilarious fraud!

 

[MP3Mike]

FSD will be rolling out end of the Q to the general US public and potentially in Europe.

To the general public in the US by 9/30: Very slim chance. (Assuming that 10.1 goes to more than beta testers Elon made it sound like it would go to EAP, Early Access Participants, before it would go to the general public. So if everything goes perfect I wouldn't expect a general public beta release until 10/8, or later.)
To Europe: Not a chance. (Elon said that even to Canada would require months more work and testing and regulatory approval.)

 

[RobDickinson]

To the general public in the US by 9/30: Very slim chance. (Assuming that 10.1 goes to more than beta testers Elon made it sound like it would go to EAP, Early Access Participants, before it would go to the general public. So if everything goes perfect I wouldn't expect a general public beta release until 10/8, or later.)
To Europe: Not a chance. (Elon said that even to Canada would require months more work and testing and regulatory approval.)

Yeah perhaps itll be later than the end of q3 but not by much.

 

[Skipdd]

The single best way to get clicks is to criticize Tesla. Just leave it be.

Just like a Used Car Dealership..

 

[generalenthu]

To the general public in the US by 9/30: Very slim chance. (Assuming that 10.1 goes to more than beta testers Elon made it sound like it would go to EAP, Early Access Participants, before it would go to the general public. So if everything goes perfect I wouldn't expect a general public beta release until 10/8, or later.)
To Europe: Not a chance. (Elon said that even to Canada would require months more work and testing and regulatory approval.)

Its crazy that the European regulators don't even allow AP to steer the car beyond a certain amount, potentially making it more dangerous by making AP give up in the middle of a maneuver. Not sure this has changed recently, but I would think it will be among the last to get this. We might in fact see FSD work in East Asia before Europe.

 

[uujjj2]

So Ford has hired Doug Field, the chief engineer while the Model 3 and Model Y were being developed. Field probably deserves a good deal of credit for the success of the Model Y. Field was working at Apple the last few years, presumably on an EV project of some sort. Rumors of the Apple EV project have swirled around Silicon Valley since 2015, and it's now 2021, so it's clearly going slow.

Field will be reporting to Ford's CEO as some chief of advanced technology. I wonder what kind of payday it took to pull him to Dearborn. It does show that engineers with Tesla on their resume are highly sought after.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Elon made it sound like it would go to EAP, Early Access Participants, before it would go to the general public

I thought EAP was Enhanced Auto Pilot which was what they called it in the beginning. Do you have a quote?

 

[RobStark]

Serious question and I am copying @RobStark and @jbcarioca who have some knowledge of OEM operations:

If there is truly a chip shortage creating supply issues and no demand issue, why are there still incentives offered in Sept?
View attachment 706293

The ATP for new vehicles is now over $41k. It was $35.7k in 2018.

OEMs are effectively raising prices.

They are raising MSRP and many dealers are lowering discounts. Sometimes even getting over MSRP.

Most OEMs, especially the Detroit companies, operate like Wal Mart. They raise prices in order to later advertise they are lowering them. Or giving you cash on the hood. Kinda like offering "free charging" or free 1k miles of charging.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Oxbotica to develop multi-purpose self-driving vehicle with AppliedEV

Self-driving software startup Oxbotica said on Wednesday it has teamed up AppliedEV to develop a fully autonomous multi-purpose vehicle that could be suitable for a variety of commercial uses.

www.reuters.com

Good luck. (Although as pointed out in the article, funding supplied by BP ).

 

[cricketman]

Its crazy that the European regulators don't even allow AP to steer the car beyond a certain amount, potentially making it more dangerous by making AP give up in the middle of a maneuver. Not sure this has changed recently, but I would think it will be among the last to get this. We might in fact see FSD work in East Asia before Europe.

Yes I have Enhanced auto-pilot in my Model 3P in Spain and it just feels dangerous. Half the time it desengages half way through overtaking a truck on the motorway so I have stopped using it.

I am picking up my wife's Model Y on Saturday! Very excited to see the differences from my 2019 Model 3P! I did not bother buying Auto-pilot

Of course this is not Tesla's fault but the EUs (under pressure from German auto-makers). Full self-driving in the US looks incredible and as soon as I can use something similar in Europe I will buy it or subscribe

 

[The Accountant]

With 14k local deliveries, that's 45k total. Expect lift-off

 

[The Accountant]

He's stating 10.4k local deliveries in August. That could be quite bullish.
In July, Tesla took 7.7 days to load ships and exports were 24,347
In Aug, Tesla took 11.1 days to load ships - so exports should be higher.
Troy is expecting about 50k in exports from China in Q3 - that would mean 26k in exports for Aug (50-24=26) and 10k in local for 36k total.
The 26k in exports for August seems very low considering the loading days of 11. We could be seeing total export and local deliveries well over 40k for August.

View attachment 702953

Yep . . . . Bullish AF

 

[hobbes]

@Troy made a new plot from our Europe registrations wiki data, shows cumulative registrations over the years. Introduction of Model 3 in 2019 shows nicely. Can´t wait to see how this will look once Giga Berlin is online...

 

[generalenthu]

So Shanghai is gonna out ship Fremont this q, despite S starting to roll out. That's awesome!

 

[hobbes]

Yep . . . . Bullish AF

View attachment 706597

EDIT:
Am I reading this correctly that Tesla China had more local sales exports in August than in all of Q2?!