Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Navin]

When Electrek asked Musk to clarify the statement, the CEO told us that Tesla is not seeing a need for a range of more than 400 miles anymore:

“What we are seeing is that once you have a range above 400 miles, more range doesn’t really matter. There are essentially zero trips above 400 miles where the driver doesn’t need to stop for restroom, food, coffee, etc. anyway.”

The biggest difference between the Plaid and Plaid+ was the ~120 more miles of range that the latter was supposed to have.

Tesla also said that it would have faster acceleration, but it didn’t elaborate on how much faster it would be.

Elon Musk announces Tesla is canceling Model S Plaid+, don't really need more than 400-mile range

Elon Musk has announced that Tesla is canceling the new Model S Plaid+ as he believes that the new Plaid...

electrek.co

 

[Chenkers]

Maybe that's the drive unit building. Flybrandenburg's video from today shows a fairly empty GA/BIW area.

I suspect this is the main BIW section, judging by the welding robots shown. The northern BIW area was closed off during winter while the separate GA area to the south was open and they only received permits for final assembly in Mid-May. Also some of the photos are from an unfinished mezzanine area while the Drive Unit mezzanine has been finished and used as offices for a while now.

 

[StealthP3D]

Plaid Plus is cancelled... so no more 520-mile Model S ?

Lucid Air suddenly has longest range of any BEV? (at 517 or whatever it is)

No 4680 coming to Model S?

Or... all new Model S have the new battery pack with 4680 instead of 18650 and longer range than previously mentioned. I'm a bit confused as to which way they're going because it would be odd to allow the Lucid Air to have such a large range advantage.

I believe this to be a very recent decision... the Plaid+ is still mentioned on the website just like before.

Lucid Air suddenly has longest range of any BEV? Except Lucid doesn't have any Grand Touring models with 517 miles of range available and there is no estimated release date. It hasn't been through the EPA testing either. So, no, Lucid does not suddenly have the longest range of any BEV. Even if you place a fully refundable reservation deposit you must acknowledge you are not relying on Lucid's range estimates or any particular timeframe.

Even if they eventually deliver on this, the price is listed at $131,500. The longest range Tesla Model S Plaid will be delivered shortly, has 412 miles of range (and access to the Supercharger Network) and only costs $79,990! This means Lucid has a long ways to go to catch up to the kind of value Tesla offers. I wouldn't buy the Lucid even if it were available, even if it was available for $51K less than it's announced price. Going from 412 to 517 miles is not worth the loss of the Supercharger network and Tesla software (let alone $51,500 more dollars).

I'm guessing Tesla determined that allotting more 4680 cells to the Semi and Cybertruck would further the mission more than having an ultra-long-range Model S. Alternatively, Elon will change his mind about Plaid + because he wanted to burn the shorts at the end of the quarter and wanted to sell as many Plaids as quickly as possible, now.

 

[InTheShadows]

When will these 4680 Model Y start rolling out of Texas approximately? Any chance it osbourne current Model Y orders?

I doubt it. My mother-in-law just picked up her Model Y this weekend. She has no clue about the new tech coming. I’m guessing only the enthusiast will delay for the latest tech. What is the percentage of enthusiast that are purchasing now? I’m thinking most of us already have our vehicle of choice or it isn’t available yet and have a reservation for it.

 

[dww12]

This has already been answered by Elon himself. Texas Model Y will use 4680 cells from the start.

You need to realize though that there will be zero spec difference between a Texas model y and a Fremont. Tesla will simply use less 4680 cells in the Texas Y so that the range, acceleration, etc will be exactly the same. There will not be a price difference between Fremont and Texas Y’s

There will be a price difference. Which would you choose, front/rear casting + structural battery pack, 4680 and new colors or the old one. The plot twist is the new one will be cheaper to make but cost more.

 

[Fairchild]

When Electrek asked Musk to clarify the statement, the CEO told us that Tesla is not seeing a need for a range of more than 400 miles anymore:

“What we are seeing is that once you have a range above 400 miles, more range doesn’t really matter. There are essentially zero trips above 400 miles where the driver doesn’t need to stop for restroom, food, coffee, etc. anyway.”

The biggest difference between the Plaid and Plaid+ was the ~120 more miles of range that the latter was supposed to have.

Tesla also said that it would have faster acceleration, but it didn’t elaborate on how much faster it would be.

Elon Musk announces Tesla is canceling Model S Plaid+, don't really need more than 400-mile range

Elon Musk has announced that Tesla is canceling the new Model S Plaid+ as he believes that the new Plaid...

electrek.co

Then why is the patent info for the CYBRTRK talking about a 610 mile range? To run the power tools?

 

[EVDRVN]

Then why is the patent info for the CYBRTRK talking about a 610 mile range? To run the power tools?

Towing,

 

[MXWing]

Then why is the patent info for the CYBRTRK talking about a 610 mile range? To run the power tools?

That and towing as an approximation zaps 50% of your range.

Won't be 400 miles of range towing a 30' travel trailer uphill.

 

[Fairchild]

Not sure this is an appropriate question for this forum, but here goes......

I just sold 100 shares of TSLA at a loss of $27K and bought them back a few days later.
How does the IRS track losses?
I assume I can use my losses to cover gains in other stocks throughout the year if I decide to sell them.

So is this a loophole? Or can I just sell a losing stock and buy it back again to generate a cost-basis loss?

 

[M|S|M MYP]

@Krugerrand ...courtersy Twitter

https://www.reddit.com/r/teslamotors/comments/ntrer2

 

[Criscmt]

how will the fudmakers spin this new info? Not enough demand of plaid+ so cancelled?

This the FUD argument we are seeing as of now…
No progress in 4680 cells, thus don’t expect production from Berlin and Austin anytime soon.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1401658133416759305

 

[StealthP3D]

So next question. Will the regular S have the 4680 packs too?

There is no non-Plaid S anymore.

 

[MC3OZ]

Can there be two versions of 4680 form cells? One for plaid and other for regular version?

If we take Battery Day literally, Model Y is using Nickel Manganese and I imagine something like Plaid+ would use High Nickel.

My best guess is that Plaid Model S is still using 18650s, but in an improved version of the pack.

I don't think the hold up/cancellation of Plaid+ is related to cells, I think Tesla could make small volumes of High Nickel cells to sell in a high margin car, if that was the only issue.

The dropping of Plaid+ may relate to something else, like body shop changes, or castings.

I'm interpreting things literally, the specs are now so good for Plaid that Plaid+ can't deliver signicantly more in terms of performance, the field is crowded with Plaid, Plaid+, Roadster, Space-X Roadster.

Plaid+ would deliver more range, but Tesla has to consider how many customers would pay for that range, when they can deliver it, and the production changes needed for Plaid+.

So maybe the thinking is, if they can convert most Plaid+ orders to Plaid, they can delay the production changes.
So when Elon says cancelled that may mean not happening for 2-3 years.

Making the Roadster, Cybertruck and Semi may be higher priorities...

With the benefit of hindsight they should have delayed listing Plaid+ as a product, but my take is Plaid turned out better than expected, and Plaid+ turned out harder to make.

I'm sure we will get some explanation at the Plaid reveal event.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

No progress in 4680 cells, thus don’t expect production from Berlin and Austin anytime soon.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1401658133416759305

Got it....selling all $TSLA stock i own come Monday....this is unacceptable!

/s

 

[Criscmt]

Got it....selling all $TSLA stock i own come Monday....this is unacceptable!

/s

Me too. I wish the market is open right now.
/s

 

[lascavarian]

“60 minutes“ and David Attenborough heavily criticizing the use of fossil fuels. Solar offers a solution if we use it.

 

[ZeApelido]

This the FUD argument we are seeing as of now…
No progress in 4680 cells, thus don’t expect production from Berlin and Austin anytime soon.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1401658133416759305

Yeah this move is definitely going to stoke that FUD. 4680 will be there until a product is actually released with it.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Never forget.....

 

[jkirkwood001]

Understood.
One week of tweaking.

Edit:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1401641625500229632

So all those calls to Plaid+ orderers to "downgrade" to a Plaid, kinda automatic now, eh?

 

[dww12]

Not sure this is an appropriate question for this forum, but here goes......

I just sold 100 shares of TSLA at a loss of $27K and bought them back a few days later.
How does the IRS track losses?
I assume I can use my losses to cover gains in other stocks throughout the year if I decide to sell them.

So is this a loophole? Or can I just sell a losing stock and buy it back again to generate a cost-basis loss?

No, that is a wash sale because you bought it back you have to be out for I think 30 days.